It is likely that Paxton might slip among Hispanic voters, given ICE shooting a retreating man in Austin.
Guns in ignorant and impetuous hands are a menace.
https://www.newsweek.com/james-talarico-chances-beating-ken-paxton-flip-poll-texas-senate-rate-midterms-12438285 - re polling before the Austin shooting.
Dems should be encouraged because of the Texas record of not recently electing Dems to statewide office.
This contest seems GOTV will be a major factor, and it is unclear if there is any backlash against Trump's effort to tamper with voting (Newsweek's item does not address that specific question).
Old farts seem to be the strongest bloc identified by Newsweek as favoring Paxton. Trump favors Paxton, and he is an old fart, so he fits the Texas polling pattern. Trump endorxed Paxton before the primary where the Republican incumbent then lost to Paxton.
Nothing in the report mentioned early voting as a present practice or trending thing, in Texas.
Questions at present stand unresolved, but Talarico does not seem to be losing ground. Gaining, if anything, but given poll error ranges, at present it is a reported toss-up.