Appearances are that Araghchi and other pre-war negotiators were not on the Israeli regime-change target list, and still have a say, but with the Revolutionary Guard factioin being steadfast on postponing fissile fuel understandings. To their benefit. And the squeeze on Iranian shipping does not hurt the Guard, they have food and resources, and control remaining weaponry and delivery systems.

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/trump-cancels-negotiators-pakistan-trip-citing-tremendous-infighting-iran-leadership-901514 

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/iran-war-costs-hit-25-billion-jd-vance-questions-pentagon-briefings-901644 

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/white-house-seeks-coalition-secure-hormuz-shipping-former-indian-envoy-calls-us-iran-blockade-901650 

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/iran-rejects-direct-us-talks-pakistan-steps-go-between-abbas-araghchi-led-delegation-arrives-901505

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/shipping-traffic-through-hormuz-remains-muted-with-no-us-iran-deal-sight-data-2026-04-27/ 

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/trump-navigates-iran-tensions-oil-companies-blockades-and-a-call-for-international-coalition/articleshow/130622644.cms 

https://www.outlookindia.com/international/trump-discusses-iran-port-blockade-with-oil-chiefs-as-fuel-prices-surge 

Perhaps, from the beginning Israel (and the US derivatively) thought Araghchi and friends would take over to fill the void w/o Revolutionary Guard strong intervention, with that not turning out to be the case. Or with Araghchi being firmer than anticipated and the Guard stepping up, in step. 

Whatever, a blockade of slow attrition seems likely, with Trump unlikely to show any easing absent the Gulf Arabs deciding to pressure to restore their cash flows. At a guess an effective blockade outside of Hormuz turning back or seizing Iranian departing ships, over time, cost substantially less than carrier group deployments with ongoing air strikes. Iran can only attain so much by launching missiles at Israel and Gulf Arab nations, with that attainment being less than breaking any ongoing blockade absent Gulf Arab states becoming uneasy. If the Saudis and allied Arab states say enough is enough during blockading, things might move to an ending vs a stagnant cease fire but with the Strait closed and Iran shipping being intercepted.

The Arab states would not want a nuclear Iran any more than Israel would, so the guess is a blockade running past the November elections; or surprisingly settled somehow via October surprise. 

The Arabs are likely pissed enough to want to hold the line, but without feeling US forces based in the Gulf were all that helpful, while being Iran targets, so basing in the Gulf may be ended into the future but with US Navy blockade power being long term capable. And anti-drone low cost interception will be a booming business into the near future. Making Ukraine happy.

 

AJ publishes, "Pakistan opens up road trade routes into Iran amid Hormuz blockade."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/30/pakistan-opens-up-road-trade-routes-into-iran-amid-hormuz-blockade 

That lessens Trump's leverage against Iran, and puts Pakistan a step ahead of India, where India could use Iranian oil, but has no land route for trade. 

Also, Trump can easily bomb critical points along land routes with little chance of loss. If he does not, what does it say about his "no nukes" theme, absent maximum pressure? Does it say Arab oil being constrained helps his cronies cooking and selling Venezuelan oil? The longer Arab oil cannot navigate Hormuz, the higher the price Trump cronies can extort, and maximize profits.

What will Trump do? What are his sincere aims? What will the Saudis expect/demand?

And, does this make Pakistan something beyond a neutral mediator? There are other nations which might be stronger in mediation than an Iran trading partner. What would India prefer, open straits, or overland road trade between Pakistan and Iran? Remember, Iran has its Caspian trade with Russia. The geopolitical dimensions are what they are.

UPDATE: Russia and Iran are both oil exporters, so their trade would involve other stuff. And, is Ukraine positioned geographically and militarily to affect Russia's Caspian ports? That adds a dimension.

Why the Iranians refuse to give up Uranium enrichment seems an indicator they either want the bomb, or they want to keep it a threat against the Israelis and Arabs. Also, Iran can decide to build intercontinental missiles capable of reaching much of the North American continent, making the bomb threat actually touch the US long term. That notion can be expected to cement Trump's will to continue insistence on no bomb, no enrichment, no continued Iranian possession of highly enriched but short of bomb grade Uranium.

The Iranians have no real excuse for enrichment beyond reactor grade, other than for political leverage, and as the second theocracy-nation besides Israel, what does that have to do with wanting the bomb or at least the threat of a bomb? Israel has Dimona, and Iran has proven its rockets can reach there and possibly cause nuclear contamination, whereas such an outcome might goose the Israelis into nuking Iran.

Neither theocracy/nation has the stability to have the bomb, Kennedy knew that about Israel, and got shot dead months after pressuring the question.

FURTHER: There is the Sunni - Shia tension across the Persian Gulf, which also matters.  If Iran goes nuclear militarily, what will Saudi Arabia do? The bulk of the rest of the world? They basically want energy prices favorable to their prosperity.

 

 

Let them eat enriched Uranium. Let Russia and the other Caspian nations set pricing. And the US Navy seamen will love the extended deployment.

 https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-said-prepping-for-extended-iran-blockade-says-tehran-better-get-smart-soon/

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-894591

One of those two says Trump said, "No more Mr. Nice Guy." The other said, short leash.

 

Iran's war economy

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/26/iran-shifts-economic-focus-to-essentials-amid-war-uncertainty 

A question seemingly beyond the interest of US MSM outletts, Iran's arming of its proxy groups, is it gratis, sale at a profit, or subsidized sale? Provision of arms with/without strings attached as to who and when to use them against Iran enemy interests. In effect, is it arming selected efforts that have arisen, or is it arming instigated agenda adherence of proxies?  Nobody in the US press seems to want to discuss it and break it down, much as MSM hesitates to emphasize the US being the greatest arms merchant in the world. The big death dealer, for cash. Often with strings attached.

 

meta manus china "singapore washing"

You can load the headline into your browser's search line, or just read here and here.

Does this story make you think Hegseth's War Department would be more secure in melding use of Meta with Palantir Technologies' stuff, than using Claude/Anthropic in the Palantir meld?

  If you want to run drones or surviel the American public, what options do you have? Sam Altman?

And, hello to Crabgrass readers in Singapore. 

Whoever Matt Royer is, some pundit I'd guess, he has put up an interesting tweet. [UPDATED]

https://x.com/royermattw/status/2048355033599582602  click the image to enlarge and read it.

See,  https://emptywheel.net/2026/04/26/dinner-and-a-show-what-isnt-being-discussed-after-whca-nerd-prom/ for context.

Ballroom? There's an easy answer. Use a larger size of jockey shorts.

_________________UPDATE_________________

Ripe for the hype: Pick the Yahoo carried story that moves you the most, here or here. 

____________FURTHER UPDATE____________

https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/what-does-the-correspondents-dinner-have-to-do-with-trump-s-ballroom-project

 

EmptyWheel aggregates two stories, an Israeli strike on an Iranian Caspian port, and Trump saying the US will interdict any ship passing through Hormuz Strait, after having paid Iran a transit fee.

https://emptywheel.net/2026/04/12/having-failed-to-win-a-marathon-sic-without-training-trump-announces-blockade-of-irans-blockade/

Israel Today reports on the Caspian strike impacting Russia-Iran trade. 

Turkish reporting on Iranian fuel refining:

Iran expects to restore most of its damaged refining and distribution facilities to 70–80% of pre-war capacity within one to two months, Deputy Oil Minister Mohammad Sadeq Azimifar said Sunday.

He added that part of the Lavan refinery, which was struck even after the ceasefire, will partially resume operations within approximately 10 days.

Lavan refinery to partially restart within 10 days

Azimifar, who also serves as CEO of the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company, told the Student News Network (SNNTV) that recovery work began immediately after each attack. 

Ukraine striking Russian drilling platforms in Caspian Sea. 

Israeli reporting Russia possibly is using Caspian trade to supply Iran weaponry:

Recently, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that today, drone shipments are traveling in the reverse direction. Russia is sending Iran “Iranian” drones manufactured on Russian soil. The Ukrainian president’s statement fully withstands the test of plausibility, given the severe damage to Iran’s weapons production infrastructure. Additionally, recent reports (which we cannot verify) have emerged claiming that remnants of a drone manufactured in Russia were located in Dubai following an Iranian attack. One of the fastest possible routes for such shipments from Russia to Iran is via the Caspian Sea. Along Iran’s Caspian coast, several seaports operate. One of these is Bandar Anzali, located northwest of the city of Rasht. On March 18, the port area was attacked by Israel, and several ships were hit, including a military headquarters and a shipyard. As we assessed before the war, with high probability, Russia will assist Iran with intelligence and diplomacy. Is Russian assistance escalating, and is Russia attempting to establish an arms transfer corridor to Iran via the Caspian Sea? 

AP reporting: 

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iranians reacted with a mixture of disappointment and defiance on Sunday after peace talks with the United States failed to reach an agreement following hourslong negotiations.

U.S. officials said the talks collapsed over what they described as Iran’s refusal to commit to abandoning its nuclear program. Iranian officials blamed the U.S. for failing to reach a deal, without specifying the sticking points.

The failure of the high-stakes talks in Pakistan after 21 hours casts doubt over the future of a fragile two-week ceasefire, due to expire on April 22.

While the fragile ceasefire seems to hold, the war is not over and uncertainty remains in the streets of Tehran where some residents were reluctant to speak to the media.

Iranians have been living in digital blackout for over a month after the internet was blocked shortly after the war started on Feb. 28. Since then, the population has been relying on state-controlled media, with a limited number of people having access to overseas satellite TV channels for access to information.

 All this sourcing is not unique, but it gives links EmptyWheel did not include, and relates to much EmptyWheel opined. Crabgrass recommends reading the EW item, and using above links if any reader wants further info.

 Noting Iranian refinery info was added to suggest Iran is less a refiner than a crude oil exporter, the Saudis for example being big both ways. It is possible refined oil products from Russia to Iran are traded on the Caspian, which would be civilian trade, but with military possibilities.

Dimona and related thoughts from former nuclear weapons inspector Scott Ritter.

 Most recently, this video. Days earlier, this. Sobering talk.

Both items from: https://www.youtube.com/@ScottRitterUpdates 

It is the kind of presentation that makes a person wanting talks going on now, to somehow succeed. It is incidental to a separate question of whose oil goes where, or is constrained to sit idle inside tankers within the Persian Gulf, with no passage out being currently available safe enough for the insurance industry to bless.

Ritter explains things to where the Crabgrass message is watch, then think. 

Dimona is hot stuff. Vulnerable hot stuff. Iran has seemed circumspect compared to what could have been. What may become, as days and weeks pass.

After negotiations fail, then what?

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iN1cp0dYTDc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlArwg-2vvM

Who knows? And besides what, there is how much the cost? In lives and dollars.

And did anyone say, "forever wars?" Or "unending quagmire?"

What we know is before the first bomb, neither Bibi nor Hegseth said either phrase. 

 

Elliot Engle died.

 USAToday: 

He began his career in politics as a member of the state assembly, serving from 1977 to 1988. He was first elected to Congress in 1989 and served until 2021, when he conceded the 2020 election to Jamal Bowman.

Foreign Affairs Committee put him at odds with Trump

Near the end of his congressional career, Engel served on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.

As chairman of the committee, Engel helped spearhead efforts on a 2019 investigation into Department of State spending at President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago club and Turnberry resort in Scotland.

Earlier that year, Engel joined other high-ranking Democrats calling for a formal Trump impeachment inquiry.

Engel believed that Trump had committed obstruction of justice as the late Robert Mueller conducted an investigation into alleged foreign tampering with American elections.

Bowman ousted Engle, and in turn was done in by tons of money from the Israel lobby.

 

 

Minnesota has had and has a variety of food shelf business models. One at least more gracious toward patrons, while another was gracious toward management.

https://minneapolimedia.town.news/g/coon-rapids-mn/n/373674/coon-rapids-mn-weekly-friday-food-distribution-coon-rapids-operates-under (opening image)

https://alphanews.org/minnesota-food-bank-ceo-steps-down-as-legislators-question-her-721k-salary/ (closing paragraph) 

In the second incident, the boss resigned after Republican legislators questioned the size of nonprofit paychecks. There are charitable people, and charity begins at home types in an ill-regulated mix.

UPDATE: The former food bank director re the second link has a Linked-In page. https://www.linkedin.com/in/allisonotoole

It appears the second linked item is/was politically motivated; see, also this coverage. Operatives and allies of the party not holding the executive branch at the time reported were the main complainants.

Whether a large scale foodbank can be operated as the small one noted in the first linked item is unlikely. As to scale of operation and scale of management paychecks, one might consider private sector super markets of the same scale as the foodbank in question. At a guess, private sector supermarkets are less generous to employees. 

With an earlier serious post, why not a short preposterous one?

The Iranians prefer Vance as a lead negotiator, since the two buffoons have backstabbed, and are of a more limited capability.

If Trump wants negotiations in bad faith, while positioning military assets, he's always got Stephen Miller to send instead of Vance. Miller proposing a deal where Iran can deport all its historical minority people to the Russian steppes, with the roundup and shipping costs paid for by 70% enriched Uranium sold at market value. Making the Iranian National Guard as effective as ICE? Or like Border Patrol, in the Bovino image?

 

image credit: https://prospect.org/2026/03/11/border-patrol-gregory-bovino-dhs-immigration-trump/ 

How could Iran turn down such a deal? Autocrats of a feather, flocking together?

 

 

The uncertainty over the war makes posting very uncertain, and other outlets publish actual news of events and decisions. However, it is time to post some thinking.

With the latest being negotiations, Israel amok, and the Strait closed, kind of, but with some passage and tithing by Iran to let stuff through. Call it a Strait-Up Tariff.

Anyway, figure if there is a permanent Iran Strait-Up Tariff, how does that effect the oil and fertilizer market. In terms of pass-through, the nation or firm owning the cargo would pass through the cost through channels of commerce, with ultimate consumers paying the tariff, just as with Trump's crap-traiffs.

Assume a hypothetical - a tanker with 500,000 barrel cargo, tithed $2,000,000 to get out - entry being untithed - oil at $100/barrel. Or the equivalent price in yuan.

That Strait-Up Tariff would be $2M/5K barrels or $4/barrel, upping Gulf oil, aside from Iranian oil going untithed, or raising the price of Gulf Arab oil to $104/barrel.

The Gulf Arabs would not like such a deal, but what about Trump? US, Nigerian and Venezuelan oil, for example, avoid the tariff because of not shipping out of the gulf. Same for Norwegian oil. One thinks Trump would silently like a price differential in favor of his fossil fuel cronies. Not saying so to piss off the Arabs, but liking the idea.

Trump could cut a deal with Iran charging a fee to pass, with the money split as reparations for the US and Iran, for recovery of sunk costs of warring with one another. Iran gets the Strait-Up Tariff, splits the take, and war is over, hurrah.

So, in negotiations, why not let Iran do it? Other issues, the n-bomb bit, etc, being separate? Screw the Arabs. They've been prospering by screwing the world via OPEC price/volume fixing for decades, after all. They've suffered Iran drone and missile damage but once their oil can reach markets again, they make out like bandits. They may grumble, and buy Ukrainian drones instead of US drones, but the combination of US oil and lng prosperity, including stolen Venezuelan oil sale income would pay back thousands of times over to the US fossil fuel barons who funded the schmuck in the 2024 elections. So they're happy, Trump's happy, Iran's happy, a win win for all but the Gulf Arabs. And, screw them, they're rich enough already.

Not considering any other term of potential war-ending machinery but only US and Iran saying Iran pricing Strait-Up traffic from now on being okay, expect it as part of Trump cutting a deal. Why not?

Israel? Wanting regime change? Still in Lebanon? Screw them. Bibi wrongly talked Trump into this shit to begin with, so let Bibi twist in the wind. He sold the bad package, so why save his ass? He pushes settlements and Greater Israel, so if he wants to continue fighting for it, let him. Him and his regime. Israel can vote his regime out anytime, if unhappy. Prosecute him, since that business is hanging fire.

Israel has done a lot to bollix up a negotiated quick peace, wanting a long war with ultimate regime change, and Trump's poll numbers are tanking, so which do you see Trump paying the most attention to?

The Saudis want a regime change also, and after WWII Roosevelt and King Saud cut the deal that the US would defend the Saudis in exchange for oil being priced worldwide in dollars, so there is that complication, but do you think Trump cares more about dollar hegemony or his poll numbers? That would depend upon pressure on him from the domestic investment community and others with vested interests in dollar hegemony, like the US public, but Trump doesn't care a rat's ass about the US people, their social security, or even their Social Security. Keep 'em on the razor's edge. Paycheck to paycheck. Healthcare uncertain. It's good for them. It makes them less willing to hit the streets in protest, if stretched out on tenterhooks.

It's all about himself, screw the dummies who elected him, he's a lame duck wanting an easy exit. There will be enough interests wanting to keelhaul him once out of office, that one more, a few people more, so what? He really doesn't seem to give a shit. Enhance personal wealth for the family and cronies from having the office, but otherwise, let the next folks up do the mop-up. He knows he's on the edge of croaking and does not care what a crap-fest comes after. 

All that, presuming he's cogent in doing his evil, which is an up-for-grabs question.

Let Hegseth keep beating his Christian Nationalist war drums, or "Bondi" him, either way Trump's pliant. He's used Christian Nationalism, yes, but that's past tense. He likely cares more about another crypto adventure than an ongoing war.

And Melania giving that Epstein speech? Wha's Happening with over half the files still withheld, and with what's public full of perp redactions? Interesting event, surely, Melania choosing now, and the subject matter. Not Bondi's cross to bear anymore. For the new AG guy.