Appearances are that Araghchi and other pre-war negotiators were not on the Israeli regime-change target list, and still have a say, but with the Revolutionary Guard factioin being steadfast on postponing fissile fuel understandings. To their benefit. And the squeeze on Iranian shipping does not hurt the Guard, they have food and resources, and control remaining weaponry and delivery systems.

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/trump-cancels-negotiators-pakistan-trip-citing-tremendous-infighting-iran-leadership-901514 

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/iran-war-costs-hit-25-billion-jd-vance-questions-pentagon-briefings-901644 

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/white-house-seeks-coalition-secure-hormuz-shipping-former-indian-envoy-calls-us-iran-blockade-901650 

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/iran-rejects-direct-us-talks-pakistan-steps-go-between-abbas-araghchi-led-delegation-arrives-901505

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/shipping-traffic-through-hormuz-remains-muted-with-no-us-iran-deal-sight-data-2026-04-27/ 

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/trump-navigates-iran-tensions-oil-companies-blockades-and-a-call-for-international-coalition/articleshow/130622644.cms 

https://www.outlookindia.com/international/trump-discusses-iran-port-blockade-with-oil-chiefs-as-fuel-prices-surge 

Perhaps, from the beginning Israel (and the US derivatively) thought Araghchi and friends would take over to fill the void w/o Revolutionary Guard strong intervention, with that not turning out to be the case. Or with Araghchi being firmer than anticipated and the Guard stepping up, in step. 

Whatever, a blockade of slow attrition seems likely, with Trump unlikely to show any easing absent the Gulf Arabs deciding to pressure to restore their cash flows. At a guess an effective blockade outside of Hormuz turning back or seizing Iranian departing ships, over time, cost substantially less than carrier group deployments with ongoing air strikes. Iran can only attain so much by launching missiles at Israel and Gulf Arab nations, with that attainment being less than breaking any ongoing blockade absent Gulf Arab states becoming uneasy. If the Saudis and allied Arab states say enough is enough during blockading, things might move to an ending vs a stagnant cease fire but with the Strait closed and Iran shipping being intercepted.

The Arab states would not want a nuclear Iran any more than Israel would, so the guess is a blockade running past the November elections; or surprisingly settled somehow via October surprise. 

The Arabs are likely pissed enough to want to hold the line, but without feeling US forces based in the Gulf were all that helpful, while being Iran targets, so basing in the Gulf may be ended into the future but with US Navy blockade power being long term capable. And anti-drone low cost interception will be a booming business into the near future. Making Ukraine happy.

 

AJ publishes, "Pakistan opens up road trade routes into Iran amid Hormuz blockade."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/30/pakistan-opens-up-road-trade-routes-into-iran-amid-hormuz-blockade 

That lessens Trump's leverage against Iran, and puts Pakistan a step ahead of India, where India could use Iranian oil, but has no land route for trade. 

Also, Trump can easily bomb critical points along land routes with little chance of loss. If he does not, what does it say about his "no nukes" theme, absent maximum pressure? Does it say Arab oil being constrained helps his cronies cooking and selling Venezuelan oil? The longer Arab oil cannot navigate Hormuz, the higher the price Trump cronies can extort, and maximize profits.

What will Trump do? What are his sincere aims? What will the Saudis expect/demand?

And, does this make Pakistan something beyond a neutral mediator? There are other nations which might be stronger in mediation than an Iran trading partner. What would India prefer, open straits, or overland road trade between Pakistan and Iran? Remember, Iran has its Caspian trade with Russia. The geopolitical dimensions are what they are.

UPDATE: Russia and Iran are both oil exporters, so their trade would involve other stuff. And, is Ukraine positioned geographically and militarily to affect Russia's Caspian ports? That adds a dimension.

Why the Iranians refuse to give up Uranium enrichment seems an indicator they either want the bomb, or they want to keep it a threat against the Israelis and Arabs. Also, Iran can decide to build intercontinental missiles capable of reaching much of the North American continent, making the bomb threat actually touch the US long term. That notion can be expected to cement Trump's will to continue insistence on no bomb, no enrichment, no continued Iranian possession of highly enriched but short of bomb grade Uranium.

The Iranians have no real excuse for enrichment beyond reactor grade, other than for political leverage, and as the second theocracy-nation besides Israel, what does that have to do with wanting the bomb or at least the threat of a bomb? Israel has Dimona, and Iran has proven its rockets can reach there and possibly cause nuclear contamination, whereas such an outcome might goose the Israelis into nuking Iran.

Neither theocracy/nation has the stability to have the bomb, Kennedy knew that about Israel, and got shot dead months after pressuring the question.

FURTHER: There is the Sunni - Shia tension across the Persian Gulf, which also matters.  If Iran goes nuclear militarily, what will Saudi Arabia do? The bulk of the rest of the world? They basically want energy prices favorable to their prosperity.

 

 

Let them eat enriched Uranium. Let Russia and the other Caspian nations set pricing. And the US Navy seamen will love the extended deployment.

 https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-said-prepping-for-extended-iran-blockade-says-tehran-better-get-smart-soon/

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-894591

One of those two says Trump said, "No more Mr. Nice Guy." The other said, short leash.

 

Iran's war economy

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/26/iran-shifts-economic-focus-to-essentials-amid-war-uncertainty 

A question seemingly beyond the interest of US MSM outletts, Iran's arming of its proxy groups, is it gratis, sale at a profit, or subsidized sale? Provision of arms with/without strings attached as to who and when to use them against Iran enemy interests. In effect, is it arming selected efforts that have arisen, or is it arming instigated agenda adherence of proxies?  Nobody in the US press seems to want to discuss it and break it down, much as MSM hesitates to emphasize the US being the greatest arms merchant in the world. The big death dealer, for cash. Often with strings attached.

 

meta manus china "singapore washing"

You can load the headline into your browser's search line, or just read here and here.

Does this story make you think Hegseth's War Department would be more secure in melding use of Meta with Palantir Technologies' stuff, than using Claude/Anthropic in the Palantir meld?

  If you want to run drones or surviel the American public, what options do you have? Sam Altman?

And, hello to Crabgrass readers in Singapore. 

Whoever Matt Royer is, some pundit I'd guess, he has put up an interesting tweet. [UPDATED]

https://x.com/royermattw/status/2048355033599582602  click the image to enlarge and read it.

See,  https://emptywheel.net/2026/04/26/dinner-and-a-show-what-isnt-being-discussed-after-whca-nerd-prom/ for context.

Ballroom? There's an easy answer. Use a larger size of jockey shorts.

_________________UPDATE_________________

Ripe for the hype: Pick the Yahoo carried story that moves you the most, here or here. 

____________FURTHER UPDATE____________

https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/what-does-the-correspondents-dinner-have-to-do-with-trump-s-ballroom-project

 

EmptyWheel aggregates two stories, an Israeli strike on an Iranian Caspian port, and Trump saying the US will interdict any ship passing through Hormuz Strait, after having paid Iran a transit fee.

https://emptywheel.net/2026/04/12/having-failed-to-win-a-marathon-sic-without-training-trump-announces-blockade-of-irans-blockade/

Israel Today reports on the Caspian strike impacting Russia-Iran trade. 

Turkish reporting on Iranian fuel refining:

Iran expects to restore most of its damaged refining and distribution facilities to 70–80% of pre-war capacity within one to two months, Deputy Oil Minister Mohammad Sadeq Azimifar said Sunday.

He added that part of the Lavan refinery, which was struck even after the ceasefire, will partially resume operations within approximately 10 days.

Lavan refinery to partially restart within 10 days

Azimifar, who also serves as CEO of the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company, told the Student News Network (SNNTV) that recovery work began immediately after each attack. 

Ukraine striking Russian drilling platforms in Caspian Sea. 

Israeli reporting Russia possibly is using Caspian trade to supply Iran weaponry:

Recently, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that today, drone shipments are traveling in the reverse direction. Russia is sending Iran “Iranian” drones manufactured on Russian soil. The Ukrainian president’s statement fully withstands the test of plausibility, given the severe damage to Iran’s weapons production infrastructure. Additionally, recent reports (which we cannot verify) have emerged claiming that remnants of a drone manufactured in Russia were located in Dubai following an Iranian attack. One of the fastest possible routes for such shipments from Russia to Iran is via the Caspian Sea. Along Iran’s Caspian coast, several seaports operate. One of these is Bandar Anzali, located northwest of the city of Rasht. On March 18, the port area was attacked by Israel, and several ships were hit, including a military headquarters and a shipyard. As we assessed before the war, with high probability, Russia will assist Iran with intelligence and diplomacy. Is Russian assistance escalating, and is Russia attempting to establish an arms transfer corridor to Iran via the Caspian Sea? 

AP reporting: 

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iranians reacted with a mixture of disappointment and defiance on Sunday after peace talks with the United States failed to reach an agreement following hourslong negotiations.

U.S. officials said the talks collapsed over what they described as Iran’s refusal to commit to abandoning its nuclear program. Iranian officials blamed the U.S. for failing to reach a deal, without specifying the sticking points.

The failure of the high-stakes talks in Pakistan after 21 hours casts doubt over the future of a fragile two-week ceasefire, due to expire on April 22.

While the fragile ceasefire seems to hold, the war is not over and uncertainty remains in the streets of Tehran where some residents were reluctant to speak to the media.

Iranians have been living in digital blackout for over a month after the internet was blocked shortly after the war started on Feb. 28. Since then, the population has been relying on state-controlled media, with a limited number of people having access to overseas satellite TV channels for access to information.

 All this sourcing is not unique, but it gives links EmptyWheel did not include, and relates to much EmptyWheel opined. Crabgrass recommends reading the EW item, and using above links if any reader wants further info.

 Noting Iranian refinery info was added to suggest Iran is less a refiner than a crude oil exporter, the Saudis for example being big both ways. It is possible refined oil products from Russia to Iran are traded on the Caspian, which would be civilian trade, but with military possibilities.