https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2LG5z77Q8s
UPDATE: Who won will take time to show up, but if the US withdraws its forces from Persian Gulf nations, at that point, Iran won. If they stay, no build back, then it would be unclear, as they could be hostages in place and in reach of rocket or drone barrages. If the Arab state installations are built back into more secure and better armed things, the US won.
Those are roughly parameters for judgment. If Iran gets into perpetuity to charge passage tolls at the Strait, it's unclear. Trump's US oil industry backers have oil and LNG to sell, so if a "tax" to Iran is imposed on Gulf oil, will they object?
If the oil cronies don't object, Trump won't.
And the Emirates have withdrawn from OPEC, so expect them to get as much product out of the Persian Gulf as they can, as fast as they can. That will allow the world to see whether Iran rations the right of passage into the open ocean. If they ration it, how would the numbers shake out? They get so much at price to China from their resources compared to the Saudis and others, a premium to Iran product, or a open situation but where the Iranians can price lower because they will not be putting a toll on themselves.
The Crabgrass guess is there will be a toll. Iran wants it, and the US oil cronies Trump serves will be able to deal with that. So, competitors of Iran will pay a tax.
Competitors of US worldwide sourcing will pay that tax. US worldwide will not.
Iran should come out better economically than they were Feb. 27, so they won.
Trump will try to obfuscate, but the world will know better. The Arabs will be okay with the US abandoning bases, since what good have they been for the Arabs Since Feb. 28?
Israel will have to cave, since facing Iran, alone, is no option. The Iranians have proven they can take out Dimona, and they know where the IDF leadership are; but do the Iranians have ground penetration capability they may need?
The words "deeply excavated" do appear in reports such as this. The likelihood would be Iranian proxy efforts continuing, but Iran not firing further into Israel if Israel does not further bomb the Iranian homeland.
And the Israelis have the bomb. If pressed near to defeat, what then?
That's all guessing. But there have been assassinations, while the negotiation team Iran used has not been hit, and it is feasible that the negotiation team sold out others to make it into a "modified" regime.
It would not be a first time for such stuff. The Venezuelans seem to have had a sellout of Maduro by underlings, and Iran is not immune from people moving to advance themselves. It would be on a larger numerical scale, but again, people sometimes move in ways they find personally favorable, chips falling where they may.
It could have been Jarad and Witcoff getting word of opportunity, sending it up the chain at the time Bibi was saying "They'll all be together soon. We can change regimes."
But that is speculation. A far reach, with ambiguous facts. Circumstantial inference often allows a range of guesswork over feasible or most likely dimensions.
The upgrading of Dimona was widely reported. The purpose is something the Israelis never discussed, and they never admitted they have the bomb even.
One likelihood is the Arabs will be less willing to buy US munitions that did not do the job this time. And Trump likely will walk away from anything that pinches. TACO and all that.
FURTHER: A guess is one or a few Saudis may think in similar ways. Google Analytics say there is some Saudi readership of the blog over the last day.
FURTHER: The Iranians do not want to get nuked. The Israelis do not want to go nuclear short of being really boxed into a corner. That suggests the Israelis will soon exit Lebanon. Iran being satisfied with the exit. All in the neighborhood being unhappy. US citizens unhappy too, and, back to the Epstein question * * *
