Monday, May 25, 2026

Continuing the theme of might Trump want a long closure of Hormuz, while saying otherwise -- AJ reporting may be relevant.

Trump-favored US oil interests might be pressing for a longer closure with subsequent higher and longer profits for their business. If so, the expectation is they would hide such a policy.

AJ publishes -

Trump says any deal with Iran will be ‘great and meaningful’

An agreement with Iran will be ‘great and meaningful’ or there will be ‘no deal’, US president says.

 Does "great and meaningful" mean long and drawn out? Trump-speak often has a meaning behind the actual words used, often close to or beyond greatly bending truth. In part - from the start -

Vehicles drive past a billboard on the facade of a building depicting the Strait of Hormuz
A billboard in Vanak Square in Tehran depicts the Strait of Hormuz with a caption in Persian reading, "Forever in Iran's hand" [Atta Kenare/AFP]


United States President Donald Trump says a deal with Iran would either be “meaningful” or there would be “no deal”, days after claiming an agreement with Tehran had been “largely negotiated” to end the nearly three-month war.

“The deal with Iran will either be a great and meaningful one, or there will be no deal,” he wrote on his social media platform Truth Social on Monday.

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Washington and Tehran have observed a ceasefire since April 8 while mediators push for a negotiated settlement although Iran has continued to block the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping and the US has blockaded Iran’s ports.

Earlier on Monday, Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran and the US “have reached a conclusion on a large portion of the discussion topics” but warned that “this does not mean that the signing of an agreement is imminent.”

Addressing a news conference in Tehran, Baghaei also emphasised that at this stage, Iran and the US have not been “talking about the nuclear issue” and their focus is “on ending the war”, which began on February 28.

Those links to other AJ reports were left in the quote, as they look interesting. Readers may wish to follow up on linked content. I have no idea what "Persian-Style" means, nor how Trump might talk around it.

UPDATE - Bibi troops still run amok in Labanon, and a deal without addressing that would be a strange deal, with Iran seeming disinclined to go that way. 

A different AJ report notes:

Alan Fisher, Al Jazeera senior correspondent in Washington said: “The President has repeatedly claimed that Tehran has agreed to various concessions, only for Iranian officials to deny them. Many argue Trump’s calculus shifted over the last 24 hours following sharp blowback from his own base, with critics warning that a weak deal would make the entire military campaign a waste of time.” 

See, Crabgrass here, quoting from a Minnesota Republican-leaning blogger. We await a big, beautiful deal with Iran - which could take a long time to be born. Give it, like a human gestation situation, nine months to be born? Would US big oil find that too long, or too short, from their wishes and perspective?

FURTHER: https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/03/iran-260323-presstv07.htm 

FURTHER: https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/24/politics/republican-iran-hawks-trump-analysis 

FURTHER: It is hard to find consistency between two BBC reports:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0p4y9y48xo 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crmp121z3z8o 

He has a deal. He wants a deal. He has all the time in the world. Time is of the essence.

The certainty on USA's Memorial Day - Oil prices remain high, for crude, at the pump. 

AJ publishes about Brazilian Oil - "Petrobras, Brazil’s state oil company, has increasingly redirected exports towards Asia, where refiners are paying more for crude that does not pass through the Gulf. More than 60 percent of Petrobras exports are now heading to China, while exports to the US have reportedly fallen to zero from about 60,000bpd in March, according to oilprice.com."

 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/25/could-brazilian-oil-emerge-as-one-of-the-big-winners-of-the-iran-war -- in part 

Who is buying more Brazilian oil?

Demand from China is driving much of the increase in Brazilian exports, with Chinese imports of Brazilian crude averaging about 1.316 million bpd between January and May this year, compared with about 704,000bpd in 2025, according to Kpler data.

In dollar terms, official data compiled by the Brazil-China Business Council shows that the value of Brazil’s crude exports to China surged by almost 95 percent to $7.2bn in the first quarter of this year.

Meanwhile, India has also sharply increased purchases, with its imports averaging about 238,000bpd between January and May, up from roughly 100,000bpd in 2025, according to Kpler. In April, Brazil became India’s fourth-largest crude supplier.

“China and India, along with other Asian countries, need non-Hormuz alternatives that are politically safer and physically available,” Ritolia said.

“Brazil’s medium-sweet pre-salt grades fit many Asian refinery slates, and Asian buyers are competing for barrels not exposed to Gulf shipping risk.”

India’s demand is also being driven by rising fuel consumption at home, unlike China, which has pivoted more heavily to electric vehicles (EVs).

India also has less flexibility to absorb a prolonged disruption through strategic reserves, meaning refiners have a stronger incentive to keep crude flowing if supplies are available and profitable.

What about countries beyond China and India?

Brazil is also looking to deepen energy ties elsewhere in Asia.

Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira said last week that Brazil is “ready to contribute to the energy safety of Japan” through increased crude exports, adding that Petrobras was prepared to expand its presence there.

The comments came as Brazil steps up diplomatic and economic engagement across Asia, including with South Korea, Japan and other Southeast Asian countries.

[...]

What other constraints exist on Brazilian oil?

Distance is a major issue for Brazilian exports of oil to Asia. Shipping crude from Brazil to China can take roughly 50 days – far longer than Gulf routes – increasing freight costs and tying up tankers in an already strained shipping market.

Russia could also become a stronger competitor later this year as Arctic shipping routes reopen seasonally. Cargoes travelling from Russia’s Arctic terminals to China can take almost half the time of the Brazil-China route.

Last week, the US also announced another 30-day extension of a sanctions waiver on Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded onto tankers at sea.

That could make floating Russian crude more attractive to Asian buyers in the coming months.

“Brazil helps diversify crude imports for Asian countries, but its role as an alternative supplier remains capped by Brazil’s overall crude supply growth, freight economics, and competition from buyers in Europe and the US,” Ritolia said.

[Sumit Ritolia, is identified early in the report as  a specialist in modelling refinery and oil markets, and is extensively quoted.] 

“As a result, Brazil is a meaningful marginal alternative for Asia during periods of supply disruption, but it is unlikely to become a structural replacement for Middle Eastern crude in the long term.”

From that, it appears tankers are taking a route apart from the Panama Canal, given size beyond the bounds of the Canal. Whether the Strait of Magellan is tried, or a long cross-Atlantic route favored was unclear from the report.  Crabgrass guesses cross-Atlantic and South of South Africa, into the Indian Ocean as a route of cheaper vessel insurance and lower risk.

[The Crabgrass headline quote is taken from inside the AJ report.] 

 

Sunday, May 24, 2026

Experiencing a situation with the feel you and I are seeing a person with a Charlie Kirk future. Hopefully not, but politics in the USA has its history, and vested interests take these things seriously and have guns.

 The speech is as it is, and is posted first. The candidate is, however, not unidimensional, with no struggles on an easy past, and just gives a good speech, and could catch Potomac fever if sent to DC. The Crabgrass outlook is not likely any change for the worse.

The story is more complicated than that. This is a legitimate candidate running because the chance came up and a very real sense of responsibility held, if he passed it up as an easy choice to dodge controversy and live out a happy life, he'd have lost something as a person at a time hard effort is required.

For a deeper view of the man's character, this interview. He had a time fighting his devils, making trust in him a far easier thing to feel. Don't be turned off by the video titling. You have an individual with a gounding to his life, which he tells as not having been an easy trip, to get to his candicacy.

Check it all out. And hope the ready guns of keeping people "in their place" do not take him out of the equation. We need Senators such as he'd be, presuming I judge correctly. Please follow those two links. Find the time. This is in its way an epic moment. 

Dan Burns gets a shoutout.

 Read it at left.mn 

There are things that are true and should not need to be said.  However --- They do need to be said.

Trumpism is really true Reaganism

 

Well, sports fans, what do you make of this?

 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-reveals-jaw-dropping-truth-about-ballroom-project/ar-AA23CHTM (with embedded opening video)

The text of the report - Stating in part -

Donald Trump’s White House ballroom is merely a facade for what will actually be a six-story underground fortress featuring a military hospital, classified meeting rooms, and top secret research facilities.

The 79-year-old president made the startling revelation as he took reporters on a tour of the ballroom construction site and spilled previously unknown details about the ever-expanding project.

In a jaw-dropping disclosure, Trump told reporters that his $400 million White House ballroom was in fact just a “shield” for a massive multi-level subterranean bunker he was quietly building below.

“We went down six stories. It’s actually far more complex,” he said.

“They’re building a hospital—it’s a military hospital—they’re building all sorts of research facilities, they’re building meeting rooms.

A military hospital? Or a paramilitary thing, for the intended beneficiaries of the $1.776 billion thing Trump and Blanche and whoever else crooked up, all too recently. 

I picture Robert Duvall, in Apocalypse Now, saying, "I love the smell of coup time in the morning."

Or was his wording a bit different?

The item continues:

 [IMAGE]

“The ballroom is really a shield and protecting all of the things that are being built here,” he added, pointing to the giant hole in the ground where construction was taking place behind him.

The comments are the first time the president has discussed how expansive his pet vanity project will be—far beyond the scope of the Mar-a-lago style event space that was initially pitched.

But the revelations have already drawn criticism, as well as conspiracy theories that he is building the facility to cling on to power.

“Trump is going to use the ballroom as a bunker. He’s not planning to leave the White House even after the 2028 presidential election,” Democrat and strategic consultant Sergio Grant wrote on X, echoing the fears of many others.

You think? That stable man, doing that? As if deranged or demented, or starting on that road.

More -

Other features of the project included titanium fencing so strong that “a bulldozer cannot knock it over”, Trump said, windows four inches thick and “9,000-pound concrete.”

There would also be a hardened roof made of “impenetrable steel” and enough space to accommodate what he described as a “drone empire.”

[IMAGE]

“The ⁠entire roof is built for military," Trump said.

“They have a massive drone capacity. Not only is it drone-proof, if a drone hits it, it bounces off, it won’t have any impact. But it’s also meant ⁠as a ​drone port that would protect all of Washington.”

The president’s tour of the ballroom construction site was not initially part of his daily schedule. In a highly unusual move, Trump also provided reporters on the tour with breakfast sandwiches made by the White House chef.

What about let them eat ballroom? Fitting the theme of the day, "Look what I've gut, and guess what it's for." More -

[IMAGE] 

Trump initially argued that the ballroom was needed for large events of 1,000 people, which is far more than White House event spaces can currently accommodate.

The president also originally promised it would be privately funded through wealthy donors and corporate backers, with “not one dime” of taxpayer money.

But after a third assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner last month, Senate Republicans proposed a separate $1 billion federal funding package for Secret Service “security adjustments and upgrades”, suggesting that Americans ought to foot the bill.

That was an assassination attempt, not a staged show? A perp arrested, largely unharmed? Huh? 

Speaking to reporters on Monday, Trump said he and his donors were financing the main ballroom, while the money Republicans were asking for centered on “surrounding areas and maybe enhancing some security aspects of it.”

Asked why the ballroom was so important to him, the former real estate mogul replied: “Number one: security; and number two, it’s needed just on a social basis for presidents.

Umpteen floors down, vs a top floor ugly-as-shit ballroom, and he keeps saying "Ballroom?" Business Times adds a bit more to the story:

Trump Says New $400M White House Ballroom Will Be ‘Drone-Proof’ With Sniper Positions and Military Complex

 Donald Trump is pitching a planned $400 million White House ballroom as something far beyond a ceremonial venue, describing the proposed structure in Washington as a fortified complex equipped with missile resistance, drone defense systems and elevated sniper positions overlooking the nation's capital.

The remarks, delivered during a tour of the proposed site on Monday, immediately intensified debate surrounding the controversial project, which has already faced scrutiny in Congress over both its price tag and its use of taxpayer funding.

Trump told reporters the ballroom would be "drone-proof" and "missile-proof," while also functioning as a defensive hub with what he described as "great sniper capacity."

JD does have the 25th Amendment, if he's enough ball room to use it. So to speak. In a sense. More or less.

 _________________UPDATE________________

If you want a context, I can give you a context

Former MAGA congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene is raising the alarm about Donald Trump attempting to cancel the 2028 presidential election.

The 51-year-old ex-Trump ally appeared on Alex Jones‘ new show and raised concern about a comment Trump made to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last year. Ukraine’s election has been postponed on account of the country’s war with Russia.

“So you say, during the war, you can’t have elections,” Trump said. “So let me just see. Three and a half years from now, so you mean if we happen to be in a war with somebody, no more elections? Oh, that’s good.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2Ik3Q0Rxzo

____________UPDATE__________

The Crabgrass read on this story is Vance is in calculation mode, and with distant possibilities unpromising, after this 2026 election JD may try the 25 Amendment putsch, win or lose. And, who for his VP, after a successful putsch, to go with into 2028, a term of his own? The Samoan lady?

 

The smell of Iran War surrender, or what? "After the initial 30-day period, 'the parties will have 30 days to agree on the nuclear issue. These 30 days can be extended by mutual agreement,' Al Jazeera’s Ali Hashem said. 'During [the initial 30-day period], passage will be facilitated through the strait. According to Iran, management of the Strait of Hormuz will be an Iranian-Omani issue and is being negotiated with Muscat.' ”

What reading should be put to "management of the Strait of Hormuz will be an Iranian-Omani issue?"

AJ reporting: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/24/marco-rubio-says-significant-progress-made-in-us-iran-talks-to-end-war 

[UPDATE The headline of this post is a mid-paragraph of the AJ item.] 

An MOU (Memorandum of Understanding)? Uranium enrichment a postponed issue? Subject to additional postponement - i.e., open ended maybe?

It reads like an Iran victory. Well short of what Obama reached, and Trump scuttled. Consider one possibility - Iran-Oman joint "management" meaning a fee for passage, split, where on the Omani side, who shares? A fee for passage would mean a tax on Gulf Arab oil at the Strait, in competition with other oil in the world market? Or not? Freedom of the Seas abandoned as a global rule of law?

It seems wisdom suggests, wait until something's on paper, read it, and then there may be clarity that is lacking at present.

Trunp is capitulating? Or not? We have to wait and see. And, the AJ report is of something not yet born, which could be stillborn. Count on what the deal is, if any, once papers for a deal are signed and put into effect. Anything short of that is guesswork.

 ______________UPDATE_____________

AJ reports. Look at the evasive crap the AP puts out: https://www.twincities.com/2026/05/23/britains-navy-prepares-to-clear-mines-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-while-waiting-for-a-peace-deal/  

That is shameful of AP. 


The local paper, StarTribune, says there is grumbling about Ken Martin as DNC chief.

 Inner party politics are unknown to me as I am not inner party. Ellison and Omar locally ssupport Martin.

This paragraph from the report:

Martin won the DNC chairmanship overwhelmingly on the first ballot, beating Wikler, who had the support of House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Martin likes to emphasize that he did not get the backing of the “status quo” billionaires or the establishment, instead touting grassroots support.

Jeffries, Pelosi and Schumer are what is wrong with the Democratic Party. Ossification. In the saddle, shit for healthcare for people, so go figure. And old timers together with the Harris spouses and their backing and elite style fucked it up. Ken is brought in to mop up, he does somewhat, and steps of a few toes. 

Big story. These hunters for his job, this close to the election, are no help in handcuffing Trump.

Let the man do the job. There will be retrospective time between this November and November 2028.

The sharp knives can come out then and Martin can defend as he may. But now? He's who is there, and I remember Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and her "Hillary's turn" crap against Bernie - Martin's several cuts better than that walking disaster. 

As in, who says Ken is unfair? Who are the critics? What's their bitch? The New York Dems and Pelosi are not the best of people, and a conscience is needed rather than serving the wealthy while hoodwinking the people who have faced little choice since Bill Clinton fucked things up via GOP - lite. 

Ihlen Omar in his corner, Kieth Ellison in his corner, that means his corner has class. A future.

I hate the stupid song, "Stronger Together" there being convention cause to think that and the balloon drop were a sign of no real substance, just narcissistic egomania of a spousal pair who have been passed up. 

Good that they have. Move on. Don't undermine Martin until after the election. It will be as it is.

The old guard did not do well with Harris, so cut Martin slack. Being able to lose to Trump is not an endorsement of particularized competence. 

UPDATE:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-itNjgCJDxU Not your Nancy Pelosi clone. Nor your Susan Collins clone. Those two, clones of each other? Anyway, Ken Martin is not your DWS clone, and some don't feel comfortable while preferring a DWS clone; a filter from and against the masses.

FURTHER: Reporting about the sniping at Ken Martin is widespread. Who's shooting? Minnesota reporting first:

 https://www.minnpost.com/politics-policy/2026/05/inside-the-furor-plaguing-democratic-national-committee-leader-ken-martin/ -- saying:

Amanda Litman, who leads the Democratic-allied organization Run For Something, said she’s been approached by senior strategists in recent days gauging her interest in replacing Martin. She declined but said many in the party have lost faith in the DNC leader.

“I think it’s a really hard job, and also Ken is not doing it very well,” Litman told The Associated Press. “I honestly think he’s going to have a hard time rebuilding trust.”

So, she wants to take over Martin's job. Who is she? Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/26/run-for-something-co-founder-amanda-litman

That says what she says, but does nothing about who she is. Wikipedia, better on that:

Run for Something (RfS) is a progressive American political organization dedicated to recruiting and supporting young candidates running for down-ballot office. Its mission is to get young progressive candidates from non-traditional backgrounds to run for and win state and local offices, and create a next generation slate of political candidates that will seek higher office in the future.[1]

It was founded on January 20, 2017 — the day of the inauguration of Donald Trump as president — by Amanda Litman, the email director of Hillary Clinton's 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, and Ross Morales Rocketto, a veteran of political campaigns.[2][3]

In May 2017, political action organization Onward Together, founded by Clinton, selected Run for Something as one of its three primary partner organizations.[4]

Wiki footnotes 3,4

  • Hillary Clinton [@HillaryClinton] (November 8, 2017). "Congratulations to @RunforSomething founders @amandalitman + @RossMoRock for a huge night! 25 of the local candidates they helped to recruit and run won" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  • Palmer, Anna (May 15, 2017). "Clinton launches new political group: 'Onward Together'". POLITICO.
  • The Clintons were the ones who misdirected - shrot term - the traditional Dems to coopting the Republican agenda - with the Stronger Together song blaring at the convention balloon drop preceding Clinton's losing, much worse than Harris losing, i.e., without excuse.

    Bottom line there, Amanda Litman is nobody's sensible answer of better than Ken Martin.

    Politico -

    Weak,’ ‘whiny’ and ‘invisible’: Critics of DNC Chair Ken Martin savage his tenure

    The new DNC chair has faced messy drama since stepping into the role in February.

    Rahm Emanuel, former President Barack Obama’s first White House chief of staff, said the committee is floundering. “We’re in the most serious existential crisis with Donald Trump both at home and abroad — and with the biggest political opportunity in a decade,” Emanuel said.

    “And the DNC has spent six months on a firing squad in the circle, and can’t even fire a shot out. And Trump’s world is a target-rich environment.”

    Many DNC members and outside Democrats, including Martin’s supporters, said they wished the party would just move on from recent internal turmoil and focus instead on mounting an effective fight against Trump.

    Rahm is nobody's answer to anything. In the Daly Chicago seat these days, seemingly, bad news. There is Bulwark

    But much of the criticism is about things that are directly under Martin’s purview. Since 2025, the DNC has spent more money than it has raised and has more debt than cash on hand. The RNC has a roughly seven-to-one money advantage over the DNC, and last October, Martin took out a $15 million loan ahead of the elections in Virginia and New Jersey. Multiple people familiar with the DNC’s money issues said that the situation is so dire that Martin will likely be forced to make another tough call this summer: take out another loan or lay off staff. During his Pod Save interview, Martin repeatedly characterized the claim that the DNC is contemplating layoffs as “garbage.”

    “The biggest strike against him is that he seems to be utterly incapable of managing a budget. To put the DNC in such a bad financial situation going into what is . . . likely be the most wild [presidential] primary we’ve had in a while—it reeks of irresponsibility and immaturity,” said a DNC member who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the topic.

    “It just feels like we’re being gaslit at this point.”

    The agita over the state of the DNC is not merely another round of Beltway bickering. It’s one of the more consequential storylines in Democratic politics these days. There is a deep concern among party officials that Martin is driving the committee into irrelevance, potentially harming Democratic chances in the midterms, and inviting uncomfortable questions about whether the 178-year-old committee should even exist anymore.

    “The DNC should not be a useless or irrelevant institution,” said Democratic strategist Ross Morales Rocketto. “It’s currently irrelevant because of the leadership.”

    So, it is about money. The consultants are not being fed as usual. Christesakes, Harris went through a billion dollars and lost. That's a message too.

    AP:

    Martin, a little-known Minnesota operative before emerging last year as the head of the national party’s formal political machine, has already faced criticism for dismal fundraising and inability to inspire confidence among his party’s unruly membership.

    However, there was no sign that a serious alternative was emerging. The Associated Press contacted a half dozen Democratic presidential prospects to gauge their support for Martin and all of them declined to weigh in.

    The intraparty feud represented an extraordinary distraction for a Democratic Party showing signs of momentum in its fight to break President Donald Trump’s grip on power in Washington. Democrats hope to regain majorities in the U.S. House and U.S. Senate in the November midterms, and Republicans could be vulnerable because of Trump’s low approval ratings, dissatisfaction over the war in Iran and lingering economic frustration.

    Martin’s allies across the country lashed out at Democrats who were fueling the election-year drama, dismissing them as unhappy consultants and supporters of Martin’s previous rivals for DNC leadership.

    Kansas Democratic Party Chair Jeanna RePass described calls for the first-term chair to step down as “ridiculous and dangerous.”

    “It is dangerous for Democrats to be playing politics with our leadership when these elections are five and a half months away,” she said. “The American people are counting on us.”

    Janet Kleeb of Nebraska, who leads her state party and the DNC’s association of state committees, said the fighting “is nuts.”

    “I haven’t had a single chair come to me saying I think Ken needs to resign,” she said. “Ken was elected by the DNC members to do a four-year term, and he has not violated any of our rules or bylaws where there would be a two-thirds vote, right? Because that’s what it would take to remove the chair.”

    Kleeb added, “These reports are such distraction.”

    If there is a thread, it is the greedy consultant class wanting money that isn't there, and bitch, bitch, bitch.

    They had a ton of anti-Trump money for Harris, and blew it all on a loss. Now they complain. And Martin did not want to release the report on how badly they underperformed.  Covering the mess, as "Let's avoid distractions, and they pushed him." Real smart. Smart people. Know how to lose folks.

    Enough. This is no defense of Martin. If his fundraising lags, it is a problem. But not THE problem.

    That THE problem thing, is try not losing this time, which Martin is set to do, despite crap being thrown at him by his lessers. The beltway consultant class are leeches. Hands off, this late, please.