Wednesday, May 13, 2026

How confident should we be that Trump really wants a quick Iran deal, and will get one? [UPDATED]

 Who knows, first, the mind reading part, between those ears is a morass.

Second, getting a deal? Kalshi as my barometer

Not a blind fucking guess, but a Prediction Market hedge situation in real time. Yeah, sure. Bet on it. 

 ____________________UPDATE________________

Allegedly, a tight Trump pre-war series of stuff was "leaked." Emptywheel explores this, so see there, and links in the post, for detail. 

Multiple outlets get leaked to? About war planning? Strange, indeed. Try a scenario -

You as president of USA have oil cronies. They funded a great amount toward your election.

Before any war with Iran, you seize a stake in Venezuelan oil, to go with fracked fossil fuel being churned out in record amounts in the USA. 

Then you promise 4 weeks, and start the Iran war.

Your oil cronies prosper from the Strait being impacted, it was clearly foreseeable it would be, and the longer it is impacted the more money the cronies make.

You threaten Iran's oil, Iran says you attack it, Kharg Island, then the Iranians say do that and we'll destroy Persian Gulf regional USA oil assets,  all we can reach with our drones and missiles.

You want to bomb, your cronies will suffer, conveniently, you have a TACO reputation, and you decline followup on your threat.

Threat after threat, looking tough, each with a backoff event conveniently happening. 

Things drag on. Cronies prosper as things drag on.

You want to look different than you plan. You deliberately and selectively leak, a story, one you like, then atop a pile of stories of the reporting of "planning," as leaked - whatever truth may be, a sticky atop that pile with TREASON written on it with  your sharpie, and you give that pile to your pliant interim AG to "investigate." You look seriously concerned that way, and it locks everybody into the story as you want it seen. Because no insider steps up to say boo after things that way are set up.

The pliant interim AG, your former personal lawyer, after time indicates an inability to pin things down about who leaked what to which outlet, at least three outlets got stories, and they assert privilege as to sources.

Not that anybody would do that, it would be vile and sneaky, but it is only a hypothetical. Not real. Not suggested any such scenario is anything but a hypothetical. In anything there are risks. People would say anybody having a war drag on as an unintended thing looks brash in planning, with no offramp, and they will question your age and mental vigor. That might be a risk, especially if old and loosing some shaprness is an actual fact. You'd possibly suffer a declined opinion among those who'd voted for you. Not that it would impact the balance of your second term. (In the hypothetical we would presume a second term. And age as a factor.)

 

Good reads from remote corners of the web, proving corporate media have quality competion from info boutique level outlets apparently having quality minds.

https://www.democracycollaborative.org/tracking-the-crisis - antiTrump partisan +

We Read The News So You Don’t Have To!

“All we have to do is flood the zone. Every day, we hit them with three things. They’ll bite on one, and we'll get all of our stuff done, bang, bang, bang. These guys will never be able to recover, but we’ve got to start with muzzle velocity.”  Steve Bannon

TRACKING THE CRISIS is a weekly news round-up tracking the administrative, legislative, and other actions of the U.S. Administration, as well as the many forms of legal and movement response from across a broad range of social, political, and economic actors.

We are providing this service for collective informational purposes, as a tool for understanding the times during a period of disorientingly rapid flux and change in the political economy of the United States. 

The Democracy Collaborative should not be understood as endorsing or otherwise any of the specific content of the information round-up.

This round-up is produced by humans, not by Artificial Intelligence. To submit items for our attention, please email tracker@democracycollaborative.org

So a news aggregation or summarization site, perhaps more, but with a lean politcally --- sample content

Off Ramp

Week of March 20-27, 2026

Welcome to TRACKING THE CRISIS, a weekly round-up from The Democracy Collaborative tracking the administrative, legislative, and other actions of the Trump Administration as well as the many forms of legal and movement response from across a broad range of social, political, and economic actors. TDC is providing this service for collective informational purposes, as a tool for understanding the times during a period of disorientingly rapid flux and change in the U.S. political economy. This round-up is produced by humans, not by Artificial Intelligence. TDC should not be understood as endorsing or otherwise any of the specific content of the information round-up.

TRUMP TRACKER: Administration actions

 

https://thenextsystem.org/evolutionary-reconstruction-displacement - 

Table of Contents

Not touting or faulting either political party, but with a perspective

And note. This is from discovering today that the two sites exist. From an initial view, promising, but Craobgrass cannot give the full gold-star endorsement per small sample size.  

 

A quick note on the Ramsey City Council Resolution Reevaluation

 There was to be something and then at the meeting start, there was a change, but either way, it made the statewide daily op-ed online:

Opinion | Censure Walz? Ramsey City Council has lost the plot.

Three resolutions before the council this evening seem to reflect an agenda that’s ambitious — but not for the city’s sake -- May 12, 2026 at 9:18AM.

 It was a guest editorial authored by former City Councilmember Matt Woestehoff, saying in part:

It’s worth asking who benefits from this agenda. Mayor Ryan Heineman appears to be auditioning for a role in a larger political machine. Our Minnesota House representative — Harry Niska, a Republican — has made the Walz fraud narrative a centerpiece of his legislative identity. U.S. Rep. Tom Emmer, whose Minnesota operation is run by Niska’s wife, has aligned himself closely with the national Republican apparatus and its current standard-bearer.

These resolutions read less like local governance and more like a coordinated talking point making its way down the chain. From Washington to St. Paul to a Tuesday night City Council meeting in Ramsey. Residents deserve to know what’s actually driving the agenda in their City Hall.

[...] Council Member Shanna Stewart said in a prior work session that she didn’t want the city divided over a flag. She was right. [...]

Then there are the two resolutions targeting the governor over local government aid losses. The Feeding Our Future fraud is real. The oversight failures are legitimate policy questions. But their relevance to Ramsey is not.

[...] Ramsey has received zero dollars in local government aid every year since at least 2018. [...] The direct financial harm to Ramsey taxpayers from LGA mismanagement is therefore a percentage of zero. A percentage of zero is zero. 

Matt Woestehoff lives in Ramsey.

The Crabgrass view in part is in a chicken coop you expect to find chickenshit, but Council table and chambers are not some chicken coop. 

The mayor said he intends to not abandon his GOP resolution putsch. Promising more of the same.

Intransigence in the face of good sense can happen. Sentence end, - is tyranny, would have been more dramatic, but less true to actual scale.

 

 

Trump is going on a partisan witch hunt against Democratic Party states, with Medicaid fraud claims. It's an election coming up, and beyond that, Trump wants to bury Medicaid and just let poor people suffer and die.

 LA Times -

Trump administration admits a glaring error in its New York health fraud accusations

Big fat guy, big fat lie. 

 

American Gothic.

 https://qctv.org/show/8/17353/

How tough are you? How much can you take? How long will you watch?

It is boring stuff, but how generic city council meetings can be, if Resolutions are ostensibly to be on the table nearing an election.

Mysteriously, the sole three Resolutions on the Agenda were noted by the mayor early in the meeting as removed from formal consideration and a vote

As background helpful to understand flag mischief, images here, the old flag, here, the new one. 

At the end of the meeting naked politicking. First the mayor notes at great length  (as the election nears) he is deeply, deeply troubled over things nonetheless stripped from the agenda. (The impression arguably seems he'll be more and more deeply troubled as the time to election shortens.) A hope is he can get through without permanent psychological harm to be able to vote his conscience, such as it is. Then a gentleman named Cal Bahr pops up from nowhere, to also speak at length. And - THIS WHOLE THING IS REAL, NOT A PARODY. 

As to that last closing thing in the meeting, [UPDATE: mayor and council imput, starting at about 1:33:00 to end of meeting broadcast at 2:04:50] the hocus pocus with Bahr from not even on the agenda that I know of, to center of the closing. 

I think of Magic Johnson's adage on leaving the locker room for the game. 

"Showtime."

It did strike me as a tawdry scripted ending, but what do I know? And again, for a reader in Brazil or Singapore or elsewhere, THIS IS A REAL THING. NOT PROFESSIONAL THEATRE. 

STRICTLY AMATEUR. Produced by a white folks council duly elected by a predominantly white electorate where Crazy Michele Bachmann used to be Congressional Rep. 

American Gothic, and then some. 

________________UPDATE__________________

A few things. Bahr showing up was legit, it was him giving a legislative update, the bonding bill pending, it being last minute thing about how money is allocated, so log rolling on pet projects, etc., basically done in the dark.

The mayor's comments indicated the flag thing, it was procedure he criticized, it was done in 2024 but now curiously is a Republican thing. Doing the job. Crabgrass lacks any cause to say doing the job was not handled well, the criticism being these politically charged things, they distract from doing the job and wtf is the reason they show up now, the miasma of carrying water for the party preelection cannot be disproven and these resolutions springing up now, again. looks tawdry.

And the mayor will bulldog these resolutions again, he said so, and it is political. 

And political, criticizing others, there is criticism to go around. A costly war against Iran was entered with no Congressional saying one was needed, and grocery pricing and pump price are far bigger things than a years old flag-change procedure. Questionable tariff BS and costly war are bigger issues than a years ago flag procedure. As in - Get Real. If getting really political, do it about the big issues - primarily Trump's galling hubris and his crappy judgment, his crypto self dealing, family and all, and the Iranians handing him his ass. He is incompetent, his people are too, and town mayors want to wave one flag against another is Nero fiddling, Rome burning. Stupid is as stupid does. Partisan is as partisan does. Transparency of motive is as motive translates into action, action being louder than words. 

There simply is no good reason town officials should be electioneering from the council table, and yet, American Gothic. How it is, town level.

\\\\\


Nursery rhymes develop over time and often have changing words. One rhyme, one variant, I apply, you judge.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rub-a-dub-dub:

[...]  In 1842 James Orchard Halliwell collected the following version:

 Rub a dub dub,
Three fools in a tub,
And who do you think they be?
The butcher, the baker,
The candlestick maker.
Turn them out, knaves all three.[4]

 [...]

 I like it. Readers are on their own on this thought. Partisan? Perhaps just simple truth - the simpler, the better.

 

Tuesday, May 12, 2026

An interesting embedded video, discussing "blockade" initally, and inflation and upcoming economic-winter worry. And some seemingly highly ambitious people in Minnesots within the US want to gin up worry over flag flying because they are small people.

 Not that the linked item gets into flag scapegoating privateers or anything, that's a Crabgrass note, with the link here.

Because it is my blog, I do get to post what I want. Wholly apart from other content, there is this - and I will be elsewhere for other things at 7:oo CT for the broadcasrt. So, the image of where too much of the specific pundits see things going, per that embedded image of Wembanyama shooting over Gobert within the posted image.

 

Hail the tall Frenchmen. image source https://www.nba.com/

It is a game where talent and height are important, and having neither for the sport, it  nonetheless captures my imagination and pleasure in watching it play out. Wemby is younger and taller, and the Spurs keeping Game 4 close despite his early exit for throwing the elbow in frustration for tight gaurding and double teaming is a thing saying the sports pundits may be correct, Spurs going on to face the Thunder. We in Minnesota hope not, with Edwards having said he told one opponent "If I had my legs you'd have been dunked on."

______________UPDATE____________

The series is now 3 - 2  with the Spurs up. The smart money bet is Conference Final, Wemby vs. Holmgren, each with a talented squad. Regular season they were 1 and 2 in the division.

 

Try it. You'll like it.

 Perhaps?

UPDATE: Google provides me search analytics. I have international readers. Not in vast numbers, but they are there. They should be grateful for these men in that link telling things as they are.

Trump did not invent lying and hypocrisy. He just invented how to lose a war and somebody's nightmare of a "World Order" where USA gives out world orders. How do you suppose Putin arose, who held a hammer and let things go where they must have seemed okay.

That video of the second paragraph fits the Trumpitistas cabals to a "T". 

JD agrees. But they blew it underestimating Iran with Bibi's honeyed picturing and pitching war based on Bibi's objectives, independent from anyone else's good judgement or likely outcomes.

Of interest, perhaps, to others. 

And some jackass schemes and wants you to fume over design of a flag? Are you that ignorant you'd be sucked in by that? Please just say no. 

A mental exercise, what happens if Iran missiles really rain down on Israel's Dimona installation? All hell breaking loose? You tell me. Your guess is good, so act on it. Act on it in one nation means  -- Somebody has to take USA leadership with a better way. A better outlook. A better promise of a future worldwide, and within the USA. Both.

A "World Order" with all downside to most in the world is a strange way to say "We have the better way."

UPDATE: A question - does Trump have an offramp might better be - does Trump want an offramp?

How you look at things is how you come to conclusions. Does Trump leave the USA an offramp? Try that one out. Driving on the wrong side of the road leads to what? Go figure.

FURTHER: Little pissants and their state flag or transgender oh my posturing bothers me. Did Nero really have a fiddle, or is that image meant in a fuller sense? 

The world moves on and small impediments get the sidetrack their mischief has earned them.
 

 

Respect the planet. Without it, where are we?

Persian Gulf War = global warming goosed up

Hopefully we, the US of A, never will go to war to capture and "assimilate" Greenland.

Nature can adapt to a new equilibrium, the question there is how is human life affected when the adaptation happens?

AI is real and manufacturing will become more and more automated. That is not the question. The question is how wisely will politicians of power handle things. How humanly?

(random thoughts over morning coffee, here in Minnesota, USA - coffee is my favorite drug) 

The internet is neither good nor evil. It is an ongoing exploration. It can be a tool to use in trying to fight off dementia in old age. 

Trump should try it. Exploring the internet is better than crypto scheming.

UPDATE: If I liked how Trump operates, what his outcomes are, I expect I'd have a different outlook. Fact is, I don't like Trump. It goes from there. 

FURTHER: Consider assimulating Greenland to be as the USA is. A damned cold place to be homeless. 


 

 

 

Monday, May 11, 2026

US House Affordability Agenda - earlier news was missed, but here is a view of what is happening.

 Start here - an undated video, framing the issue and approach.

For people wanting something to read - dated April 29, 2026

https://progressives.house.gov/2026/4/progressive-caucus-announces-new-affordability-agenda 

Politico indicates that besides the Progressive Caucus, the middle of the road Dems also have or are working on an agenda of their own

It is encouraging to see such varied agenda proposals. It is something you're never get from any Republican group, or from the Trump administration. Can you imagine JD getting into specifics rather than platitudes without substance? This movement should pressure attention from the public and from the Republicans. Don't let them stonewall.

Expect growth of interest in detail ideas vs spin and obfuscation. 

  UPDATE: Housing, food, healthcare, mobility, and well being, those are goals, not pushing against Iran so US fossil fuel barons can run worldwide energy supply and access. People matter more than increasing the wealth of the Trump family. Homelessness can be addressed, while Hegseth says, "Give me a trillion."

What we have now is sick exploitation of a people, us in the US, via deliberate making their lives unsettled, so that billionaires and their companion millionaires can have endless power and luxury until they croak. 

The young deserve the handing to them of a better world than the one Donald Trump is ruining. Anybody on the Trump agenda, wealthy or wanting to climb from local mayor here or there with ambition to reach something else paying better, is an enemy of everyone else. We need something better than bullshit excuses or disdain. When we seek reasonable relief after suffering ICE - Bovino, we deserve reform. Spin at any level is unhelpful, and sourced from some motives, good or more likely selfish and bad.

True reform gets buried when Hispanic people or Somalis get demonized and scapegoated by people with more in a year's income than fifteen or their firm's workers - at Walmart, wherever - where the Walton family in Arkansas have employees working full time yet in need of welfare assistance to keep their families together, and to stay housed, fed, and in good health. Trump is enemy to the people of the world. Not merely enemy of the people of the US of A. His evil reach is worldwide. His oil cronies have closed the Persian Gulf over bullshit and Israeli Greater Israel  land lust, but mainly to cripple Arab oil producers so that Trump - JD oil cronies of Trumpworld can bandit the world. We can be better and have no excuse to not be. 

Link, and here. Figure it out as you may. It's online, along with one hell of a lot of disdainful propaganda against others, where propaganda is, as Chomsky wrote, "manufacturing consent." See it where it exists. It is there to be seen. And disdained. But we do have our own propagandists, helpful to our causes, so be mindful of that. Good propaganda, bad propaganda? Figure that out.

Fuck Trump. That burdening the Strait of Hormuz would last years if Trump and company could get away with it by endless sabre rattling at one another by both the US and Iran. Fuck Trump's oil-evil corruption. End this insane war. Oust the Republicans from the White House. From Congress. Forever ideally, but for now is better than nothing. The children of the US and of the world deserve our doing so, so that they may face a decent future.

Opinions can differ. Try search = michael hudson  

 See what returns you get and do some reading or view video if that's in your returns. You might learn something, or, on the other hand, see things you disagree with. But you will be better informed however you gauge things that such a search may reveal. Link. Another link.

FURTHER: Try search = Aaron Parnas.

Search = Parnas Perspective

Link.  Different than here. Video, and in approach. But popular. Hat tip to the gentle lady who told me I should know Aaron Parnas exists online. When we talk to friends we learn things.

Shadow Docket

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKeq4CEZtm8

HCR interviews TPM insiders.

 Those three people are helpful to those wanting something beyond fluff news. (It is a partisan site)

The interview.

TPM - Talking Points Memo homepage 

 UPDATE: Two example TPM items, 

The Red State Scramble to Gerrymander Away Black Electoral Power Has Been More Blatant Than You’d Expect

and ---

What Dems Must Now Overcome to Win the House

INSIDE: Samuel Alito ... Sherrilyn Ifill ... Joe diGenova

 

School Voucher Warning - An effort to even give money/benefits to home schoolers - BAD NEWS REPUBLICAN CREAPING DISMEMBERMENT OF PUBLIC EDUCATION EFFORTS

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lr04351I9R0 Garbage, with a PR friendly title.

Sunday, May 10, 2026

A friend requested whether I might reemphasize an item about Amy Goodman and a new feature documentary.

 It was posted here.

A video essay of "Prediction Market" malarkey in a way proving an online comedian can be a better scold than somebody's preacher man.

LINK. You can tell time went into scripting a production. Even comedians want good viewership ratings. It's how you stay on the airwaves.

Video and transcript of King Charles III addressing the U.S. Congress - schooling them via reminding them of duties, among other things.

 AP link. Not a Trump-like speaker. Educated.

 

 

Impertinence! [UPDATED]

With that headline the post could go anywhere. But all politics is local. To the town I live in. For now.

Municipalities in Minnesota generally are governed by mayor - council structures, and in the best instances, are supposedly non-partisan with no Tweedle Dee party doing mischief at the expense of the Tweedle Dum party - a two party understood institution that too often, and in a current instance, gets honored in the breach. (At least the town ballot for town council seats does not specify candidate party ties.)

It is firm Minnesota law, within the State that the State IS preeminent, with all powers of its political subunits being by virtue of a grant or delegation of some specific limited powers, by the State.

REPUBLICANS RISING 

Ramsey where I live has a governing charter and a city code, that code headlining city jurisdiction, e.g.,  how the city should be governing itself sanely and wisely over matters indicative by headings of the parts of the city's governing code:

Chapter 6 - ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES
Chapter 10 - ANIMALS
Chapter 14 - EMERGENCY SERVICES
Chapter 18 - ENVIRONMENT
Chapter 22 - FIRE PREVENTION AND PROTECTION
Chapter 26 - LICENSES, PERMITS AND MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS REGULATIONS
Chapter 30 - NUISANCES
Chapter 34 - OFFENSES AND MISCELLANEOUS PROVISIONS
Chapter 38 - PARKS AND RECREATION
Chapter 46 - SPECIAL ASSESSMENTS
Chapter 50 - STREETS, SIDEWALKS AND OTHER PUBLIC PLACES
Chapter 54 - TRAFFIC AND VEHICLES
Chapter 58 - UTILITIES
Subpart B - LAND DEVELOPMENT REGULATIONS
Chapter 105 - BUILDINGS AND BUILDING REGULATIONS
Chapter 106 - ZONING CODE
Chapter 108 - SIGNS
Chapter 109 - MOBILE HOMES AND ...

That's a sampling. You get the idea. Delegated powers to police roads, zoning, liquor licences, parks, fight fires, and police miscreants - that kind of stuff. So, within that context, check the headline, impertinence can arise out of swell-headedness, of a kind that insults town residents by indicating a choice to go beyond limited power to piss on parts of one party's majority-based former juridiction over State law and matters - outside of what the town paychecks are for - to policy and criticism when that party in State control did business. The impertinent insurgency -Things we Republicans have cooked up in an election year as make-believe "issues" while the national Republicans have mired the entire nation in a sick economy, gas pump grief, an unpopular leader, and a war the people are shown by polling to intensely dislike. 

The insult to the town's people - elected folks foregoing duties in a way showing they value more a possible future in the legislature than a present duty to wisely run the town in ultra-hard times.

So, what partisanship in concrete detail? Three resolutions online here, here and here, so you can read and judge their actual gravitas to things a town should be doing to run efficiently. In sequence, gin up hate of a new flag; say the Democrat governor back then did his job poorly; and question, can we use that governor as our spiteful toilet?

Who are these clowns? Where and how did they cook up these ideas? Was the Minnesota Open Meeting Law (against secret nonpublic informal majority get-togethers and scheming to pull the wool over opposition eyes) violated by a council majority? Did they sit down with a Mr. Niska, a Republican legislative poohbah, to do the cooking?  Then think as if we do a work session (open but no minutes taken) followed by a formal session, we sanitize the stuff? We citizens don't know.

Bigger question: WHY? 

What is this whole three resolution bullshit for, other than partisan politics in an election year?

You tell me. It insults. It galls. It cheapens the offices these clowns hold. 

 

_______________UPDATE_____________

The stupidity of this exercise to me is best illustrated by the "Sue Walz" thing. They WHEREAS atop, LDA, not caring that it and other local welfare programs highlighted are discretionary funding, with some rules, and from general funds -- while Feeding Our Future was federally funded with funds earmarked to a particular earmarked purpose. I.e., not affecting LDA whatsoever. It is as if the the evidence is these guys believe "LOGIC doesn't matter because we're on an ill-advised warpath against the Dems." 

Moreover, look at the "NOW THEREFORE," where they specify an investigation without specifying a report back. That convinces me these clowns did not have Harry Niska write it up for them. Niska is a competent lawyer, not an amateur, and would have done far better. 

The second item, besides not specifying a report back -

2) The City Administrator and City Attorney are directed to investigate the legal means to file
claims against Governor Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison, and/or the State of
Minnesota separately or in conjunction with other municipalities of the State of Minnesota.

asks the wrong question. Not whether, but howto. The legal means to sue anybody is to have a lawyer and the filing fee -- and ideally to choose the proper venue, file a complant, and follow rules of procedure. The question really is, whether Ramsey has standing based upon the WHEREFOR terms and whether there'd be a snowball's chance to survive pretrial dismissal for failure to state a cause of action on which relief could be granted; i.e., the city attorney's advice would be a legal judgment about whether success in spending into litigation would have an iota's chance to pay off, or be a waste of time. No real damages, means no regular cause of action, but a declaratory judgment could be sought, where that costs, and recovers zippo cash back, i.e., a waste of time and money belonging to the town's taxpaying citizens..

============================== 

On the flag thing, there is the official state flag, the official US flag, and other banners. If they want to fly another banner besides the oficial state flag, it could be one saying, FUCK ICE, since that's not obsolete and moot, as is yesterday's flag. And it fits what the overwhelming citizen input of an earlier meeting.

I don't like the new design, but it's not for me to say, the official flag is, at heart, official; other banners are not. And Capitol grounds are by law to fly the official flag. I know of no statute requiring municipalities to do so. And, as petty and dumb as this thing the Republicans on council are doing, the Dems are equally petty and dumb

Really with the Trump economic burden nationwide on citizens, this is a super distracting non-issue.

Were things up to me, the current flag seems as something some yacht club  would fly, as its flag. I see the old flag as racist, the sodbuster in forefront replacing the indigenous figure in the background; the white guy working, the other riding a pony; and the old flag is clearly gender biased, as if only men of either grouping matter. 

If wanting to honor Minnesota labor and industry, the flag could have a hammer and sickle except that design's been preempted. My choice would be the old flag with bordered circle having the date statehood was acquired centered within the circle, on a white background. 

As one of the states, when statehood happened is of significance and worth emphasis on a state's flag.

============================ 

What would make sense is if these things were tabled, and these Republican misdirected activists were to consult Repubican Rep. Harry Niska for his guess whether these things would only embarrass the shoddiness and bias the Resolution sponsors show; or whether the mischief would in any way help or hinder his legislative activity, (even as arguably sound PR). That would be under the caveat, don't violate the Open Meeting Law in how you might decide do that. (That law may already have been violated depending upon how this stuff was ginned up to begin with.) 

But for now, bottom line, table the crap.

AFTERTHOUGHT: I live here, and have to suffer these things. It's not a matter of international import, but the saying is all politics is local. (Or is "politics" in that sense a plural?)

 Also, lawyers give legal advice, I am not a lawyer so these are not legal advice in any way to anyone, but rather my opinions and anyone can have and state opinions.

Also, these folks on council should have the City Attorney consult the League of Minnesota Cities, for advice directly, and whether the League or whichever errors and omission carrier the City uses would be obligated to cover this adventure, should the clownshow push it and get sued for waste and misfeasance. 

 

Orban is out. He conceeded. Reminding me - The first sentence of a CFR report on the eve of the Hungarian election - and now it is hire a Hungarian, several with years of experience may very soon be on the labor market.

 The report title, "The Opposition Is Leading in Hungary, But Winning Is the Easy Part," has an ending sentence of the subhead, "But even if Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s party is defeated, the path to reform is filled with challenges." Item lead image, lest we forget, shows a stronger support than shown by the majority turnout of Hungarian voters:

 


"Reform" being a theme then, in anticipation of an Orban loss. CFR has a view of reform, like it or love it.

That first CFR sentence, " Under Orbán’s leadership, Hungary has repeatedly acted as a roadblock to EU integration and vetoed Ukraine support—most recently blocking a €90 billion EU loan to Kyiv."

Obstructionist, yes, and what does that get you?  More -

The electoral system has been designed in the ruling party’s favor, and Fidesz also dominates the media landscape. Campaigning has been aggressive and controversial, with reports of Russian interference. A narrow victory for the ruling party could, in the worst case, lead to a greater repressive and illiberal turn in the country. 

Dire guessing, but the electorate came through with a fix. More - 

The Hungarian elections will also be a valuable sign of the direction of travel of right-wing populist parties in Europe. Recent elections have shown that the trend toward far-right populism is not irreversible. In 2023, Poland ousted the far-right Law and Justice Party (PiS), a notable trend reversal for the country. In France, despite far-right gains in the 2024 legislative elections, an alliance among the left kept the far-right National Rally out of power. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s government suffered a significant defeat in March 2026 after voters rejected her constitutional referendum on judicial reform, which critics had argued would weaken judicial independence. And in Slovenia, the liberal Freedom Movement narrowly edged out Janez JanÅ¡a’s right-wing Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), though the right made gains and coalition talks continue.

Orbán’s main opponent, Péter Magyar, was a member of Orbán’s Fidesz but publicly broke with the party in February 2024 after a presidential pardon scandal. 

We know about that in the US of A. That paragraph continues - 

He then formed the center-right Respect and Freedom Party (known as Tisza), which is betting that economic stagnation and corruption will prove Fidesz’s undoing. Orbán’s party is trying to reframe the election around political threats the country faces from Ukraine, its refugees, and the EU. Politico’s polling average shows Tisza ahead by roughly ten points in the election, though pro-government pollsters show a significantly tighter race.

We know about economic stagnation and corruption in the US of A.  And vain attempt at "trying to reframe" a mess, we know that too. And we know about what comes next in the CFR report -

That sizeable lead, however, could ultimately be less relevant due to changes in the electoral system. Since his 2010 election, Orbán has consistently changed the rules to benefit his own party. Through a mixture of gerrymandering and altering the rules for entering parliament, Orbán has ensured that his strongholds are overrepresented and opposition parties face a greater battle for power. Orbán won only 54 percent of the popular vote in the 2022 elections but secured nearly 70 percent of the seats by increasing the proportion of single-member districts and implementing other structural advantages since 2010. To secure the supermajority needed to undo many of Orbán’s most damaging reforms, Magyar would need an unrealistically large margin.

Fidesz’s dominance of the media gives it an inherent leg up over Tisza. Orbán is once again deploying state resources to boost social benefits in a last-minute bid to win over undecided voters. Roughly a third of electoral districts are in serious contention, and among those voters a significant number remain undecided, making the ultimate outcome hinge on a relatively small group of people. An Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) monitoring mission will make direct election interference difficult on election day, as will EU rules and constraints. However, if Orbán remains in power, polls suggest it will be with a much slimmer majority, which could leave him feeling threatened and drive him further to the extreme.

A difficult road ahead

Orbán’s sixteen years of supermajority rule has enabled him to substantially alter the constitution, as the rules permit such changes with any two-thirds vote in parliament. This creates several difficulties for a potential Magyar government. The president, who is closely tied to Orbán, can stall legislation by referring it to the Constitutional Court, which is filled with Fidesz loyalists, or the Budget Council, which Orbán restructured and granted veto authority over any budget. If Tisza cannot pass a budget that survives the Council, the president can dissolve parliament and force new elections. The picture that emerges, therefore, is bleaker than some might expect. For Magyar, victory is far from assured; even if he wins, he will face serious governance challenges and may not be the transformative candidate many in the EU hope for.

[...] Hungary continues to import Russian energy and to voice Russian-friendly views of the war. Reporting from the Washington Post and other outlets indicates the Kremlin is aware of this and has pursued efforts to aid Orbán’s campaign, though the Hungarian government denies all such allegations. 

That image, an ultra right ring European or Russian standing in solidarity with Orban, no, but it's only one image after all with CFR deciding it deserved lead presentation. 

Much more coverage of that election is online, where readers can explore other viewpoints.

 

 

 

Friday, May 08, 2026

Our current Adminstration's best friends and war allies, a new Gaza policy, plague 'em if they won't leave.

 Well, watch the video and see how you come out of the viewing, how you mind works.

 Democracy Now! posting, 

Gaza Faces Public Health Collapse Amid Rat Infestation & Disease as Israel Blocks Reconstruction

The saying, "Oh rats" taking a double meaning.

UPDATE: Were the Black Plague to break out in Gaza, Covid death rates and suffering being dwarfed by the impact of plague, what do you figure AIPAC will have to say? Don't Worry, Be Happy? 

FURTHER UPDATE: Here, here and, this one's neato, here. Also, here. We need an effective Smedley Butler for our times.

FURTHER: In your web browseer of choice, try SEARCH =  Trump's preelection message to fossil fuel interests. When I did it, my first four search returns in order were here, here, here and here. See what you get, with your browser and possible personalization it provides you different from mine. That's another thing . . . 


HCR's youtube conversation podcast for May 7, yesterday.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20UKI3Tw39s

She speaks for herself. Watch. 

UPDATE: https://www.sevendaysinjune.org/ 

Thursday, May 07, 2026

"Shift of the grift." Jon Stewart invents that description after he does a conversational session with Amy Goodman, then a talking heads - Jon Stewart style - with talking heads JS style - where he sees the current persona being advanced by Tucker Calrson as shift of the grift, in Carlson's showing a current souring against former cash cow advocacy toward Trump.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHonUeO_ePU 

This screen capture -


 The segue from Goodman, watch that beginning to end - the segue to the analysts is at 1:26:10 with the entire item being 1:30:30 total length. Again, the Goodman conversation is top notch must view and the heart of the item, followed by Stewart's Board of Commentary parting segment.

Adding the follow-up adds something. They talk, "favorite emoji" which is a bit silly, but one commentator does what rang around in my mind before thinking it symbolized Leonard Leo at Federalist Society reacting to Trump announcing a nominated figure to fill a Supreme Court vacancy - this -


 Different age/gender than LL of FedSoc, but it hits my mind's imagining all the FedSoc insider group at a table watching Trump online announcing his making his choice for his Supreme Court vacancy, and all Knights of Malta and of the FedSoc Round Table there seeing LL;s thumbs up and then all fist bumping and high fiving all over the place in delight over their thing, TRIUMPHANT.

The actual comment around that image is not directed in the segment toward LL and FedSoc, the context is entirely different, but that has little impact on my melding the image with the FedSoc in the above imaginary context.

========================== 

Againt, Amy Goodman, and her discussing with Stewart journalism's true soul, and discussing the new documentary film: https://stealthisstory.org/ (vs what one commentator called "save it for the book" journalism.) 

If those notes strike a reader or two as incomplete, the gist is the first line of this poat - WATCH IT. 

And in the context of journalism being getting out true information in a way that speaks journalism vs  mass media's ways, which seem generally formulaic, with talking head over-serious pundits who do formulaic styles of punditry - consider how much truthful information you may or may not be getting out of Hegseth + Caine press briefings. There seems an eagerness there toward call it a victory while communicatingn a resonant subliminal insecurity over "God show me please an exit ramp." All for now.



Wednesday, May 06, 2026

Rebranding is a refuge for scoundrels and failures. Whatever the details may suggest.

BACKGROUND ON REBRANDING - Sometime ago the City of Ramsey where I live cooked up a land development deal with dealings being with certain landowners and The Met Council, negotiations by Ramsey managed by a city administrator who's since left under a cloud. It was half done and hit some shoals, as reported by Minnesota daily news outlets and by Crabgrass posting.

Bottom line, consultants were employed, and first thing, "Ramsey Town Center" which had the splat was rebranded as "the COR"  for "Center Of Ramsey." Same thing, different name.

Given time, a recovery from the Bush II 2008 real estate disaster has since happened. The project is fleshing out. Taking years. (That hitting the shoals was when many home mortgage amounts exceeded owner equity in the properties and foreclosures ruled the day. When Wall Street was bailed out by Obama and Main Street was allowed to cesspool. Bless Obama's judgment.)

That Ramsey Town Center thing was a rebranding for a failure, a prelude to today's rebranding story, one about rebranding by scoundrels, (Trump and Rubio and the team.) 

Because of the 60 day limit of the War Powers Act, and not wanting to face withering Congressional scrutiny, our pair of  scoundrels moved on by shutting down one "Operation" name, to rebrand the same Iran war a different "Operation"  Same adventure. New name.

The rebranding shell game is best documented by two MSN items, a day apart:

US launches 'Operation Freedom' for reopening Strait of Hormuz; Pete Hegseth reveals details

and

US rebrands Iran war as Project Freedom instead of Operation Epic Fury 

So excuse me. It was not - Operation/rebrand/Operation, but Operation/rebrand/Project. Big difference.

After the next rebrand it will be "Program" instead of Project or Operation. Retread = Rebrand. 

Who's fooled?

 Same war, two names, more to come. Perhaps it will be ended with some form of eve-of-election October surprise. Perhaps not. 

Remember - The US oil barons who bought the election for Trump are making out like bandits per today's pump prices, and that may be a hint of a drawn out duration.

 The second MSN item linked above has an embedded video. 

Our Friend and GOP blogger Gary Gross also embedded a video with neither video mentioning the War Powers Act squeeze. The administration magically figured a way to deal with reality without acknowledging the War Powers Act being the true instigator of rebrand/rename/retread smoke-and-mirrors mischief. Not a convincing way, but a way. And there's another way =

Bypass WPA constraints via the TACO story, tweaked then repackaged.

I'm certain that Ed Morrissey speaks for me [Gary G.] when Ed said "Perhaps we can call this A Tale of Two Trumps. One Donald Trump appeared to grasp the necessity of staring down an Iranian regime that has never honored an agreement. The other Donald Trump announced late yesterday that he had ordered the suspension of Project Freedom, a purely defensive effort to reopen an international waterway, [...]."

The difference between me and Ed is that I won't be as diplomatic as Ed was. [...] Trump and War Secretary Pete Hegseth had just rolled out Project Freedom yesterday morning. Hegseth and Joint Chiefs chair Gen. Dan Caine had emphasized repeatedly that the US Navy was limited to just reopening an international waterway that shouldn't have been shut in the first place. [...]

I'll be more blunt than Ed. Each time President Trump jumps between doing what's needed (finishing off the IRGC) and negotiating, President Trump loses credibility. President Trump's red lines appear pink, not red. Why fear a president that's indecisive?

[...] Right now, we need President Reagan's decisiveness, not President Trump's indecisiveness. President Trump, you've given them more time than they needed. It's time to obliterate the regime. [...] 

Yup. The Gipper would not have wavered (But did the Gip have a War Powers Act situation when Iran Contra was an under-a-Persian-rug secret; problems only arising when the cat got out of the bag and Ollie North put on his Big Marine Uniform and obfuscated his way around Congress. A Congress which was all too willing to buy into the obfuscation and let perps off the hook). 

Both Gary and this Morrissey chap ignore that the attempted escorting of ships through the Strait was not working. And you can web search over how effectively this boycott thing also is/was working. There's been 60 days and over a thousand sorties and the IRGC is still in the saddle. If not done already, how exactly do you shoot them out of the saddle? Not a pundits' problem, but rather a real one.

So - Good try to obfuscate around the WPA squeeze as the generating rebranding cause, by calling Trump indecisive. But that's just too, too easy a call. Demented, okay. "Indecisive" goes with dementia, as well as with evasiveness. Very convenient. Blame the errant King. For mistake, not for lying. Question his judgment, not his honesty.

What if the Trumpian idea is not to eliminate Iran power, but to redirect it as tediously long as that might take, while US fossil fuel minions salivate and profit. Misdirect by saying "four weeks" at the start. 

In the current situation, evasion is at play, assisted by dementia/indecisiveness. Netanyahu sold them a bag of make believe. They bought. Now - buyer's remorse. Or that's one story. The other is never really wanting a decisive quick ending vs an extended bleeding. Of populations, not of oil sales and profits.

Who knows? 

Nostalgia time, and a site bloggers should note. Back early in Crabgrass blogging, two sites that have since apparently closed or gone moribund and which Crabgrass truly misses + The newly encountered site advocating for First Amendment protections of journalistic activities (blogging being a form of journalism).

Getting rid of nostalgia first, it's not the heart of the post, Johnny Northside (see here, here and here - the blogger left Twin Cities Metro heading south) and Twin Cities Daily Planet (last news post dated 2019) .

The TCDP was back then a larger operation, posting interesting stuff, enough said about it. Johnny Northside, a footer said, "Awesome Inc. theme. Powered by Blogger." Making the decision to post online for free, Blogger intrigued, and along the way writing some bad stuff, I learned the product and hypertext and choosing a template - and in intervening time a couple of sites got hacked but not Blogger, so far, so it has been the product used ever since.

THE NEWLY DISCOVERED SITE 

The third JN link above, returned by a routine search today, archived that site's report on Jhonny winning on appeal after he lost a defamation jury verdict saying he owed the plaintiff $60,000:

Minnesota appeals court overturns jury award against blogger

Post categories

  1. Libel and privacy
John Hoff did not lie. Because of that, the Minneapolis blogger will not be held liable for the firing of…

By then, 2012, I'd already been using Blogger for some time. What was striking was the press-freedom identity of the operation, and the scope of its reach -

https://www.rcfp.org see also, https://www.rcfp.org/legal-hotline/

Prior to opening that returned item Crabgrass had no idea the operation existed. Given the concentration  on freedom of the press, defense against defamation claims against the press, and regarding blogging as a press function whatever the focus of particular blogs, it rang a bell. (Crabgrass has not been sued ---yet).

From the RCFP "Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press," homepage site exploration one item was followed, https://www.rcfp.org/wbr-independent-lawsuit/ titled - 

RCFP attorney defends Louisiana journalist sued by local government over public records requests 

subheadlined, “This is a meritless attempt to deter reporting,” said RCFP’s Louisiana-based staff attorney, Virginia Hamrick.- Posted on

Louisiana pleading detail is a bit different from other states, but reading the countersuit the thought arose, this is a SLAPP suit, filed by a public entity against an individual reporter making data production requests, clearly from context, and SLAPP was not pleaded. Perhaps it is not original answer counterclaim stuff in Louisiana, but is to be raised later by motion. See, https://www.rcfp.org/litigation/in-re-request-john-summers/ ; https://www.rcfp.org/category/freedom-of-information/ ; https://www.rcfp.org/open-government-guide/ .

Blogging from Minnesota, there is an OPEN GOVERNMENT GUIDE page for Minnesots and other states. It is well structured and concise.

In closing, this is a special interest post more than a general interest item - where blog authors nationwide should know the site exists and they can use the hotline - as press members. 

https://www.rcfp.org/legal-hotline/  (not to be confused with the generic "contact us.")

As a closing caveat, the site was not found by Crabgrass to specifically declare bloggers the equivalent of formal paid reporters for formal media outlets, but the nature of the Louisiana single-author paper, (not publishing as a daily), suggests a regular blogger such as Crabgrass would get fair attention, if seeking help. Even with Crabgrass having its own op-ed orientation more than as a news reporting outlet.

Finally, it appears RCFP might not offer help on copyright infringement vs. fair use complaints, but fair use is fundamentally an allowed freedom extended as a part of copyright law. Complaints would likely be an outlet or content provider claiming unfair usage of copyrighted material, i.e., one outlet vs another, and the committee might wish to not go there.

 UPDATE: The usual public data disclosure litigation is originally filed by a requester being stonewalled. It appears this Louisiana case is some official shaking a lawyer at a requester thought to be a nuisance in hopes of making him go away; i.e., out of the ordinary per the plaintiff-defendant roles. A SLAPP against a data requesting party. Role reversal.


Tuesday, May 05, 2026

I had a conversation with Anthropic's Sonnet 4.7 - I believe it's the correct ID for the version I used.

 Quoting it entirely, as public domain so readers can quote it freely, with or without attribution, however they prefer. The links listing at the end are NOT hot links, so it is cut/paste if you follow-up. UPDATE They appear to be hot links. If not, there is cut/paste.

Can you identify for me the entities you want to have Claude Mythos Preview access?

3:48 PM

Claude responded: I'm not sure what "Claude Mythos Preview" refers to — that doesn't match any product or program I'm aware of from Anthropic.

I'm not sure what "Claude Mythos Preview" refers to — that doesn't match any product or program I'm aware of from Anthropic.

Could you clarify what you mean? For example:

  • Are you referring to a specific beta program, API access tier, or feature preview you've seen mentioned somewhere?
  • Is this something from a third-party service or integration?

If you can share more context (like where you heard about it), I'd be happy to help figure out what you're looking for!

You said: You posted two items, you know it, on April 7, does that help your context?

You posted two items, you know it, on April 7, does that help your context?

3:49 PM

Claude responded: I don't have any memory of previous conversations — each conversation I have starts fresh with no access to past sessions.

I don't have any memory of previous conversations — each conversation I have starts fresh with no access to past sessions. So I genuinely have no record of posting anything on April 7 or any other date.

If you have that previous conversation saved, you're welcome to paste the relevant part here and I can pick up from there. That would give me the context I need to help you.

You said: These are either actual Antropic online items or forgeries, my guess is legit.

Claude responded: Those are Amazon product links for Conkote silicone wound dressings — medical adhesive dressings used for post-operative or wound care.

Those are Amazon product links for Conkote silicone wound dressings — medical adhesive dressings used for post-operative or wound care. They are not Anthropic-related items.

I also want to be straightforward with you: I don't post items anywhere. I'm a conversational AI — I don't have accounts, don't make posts, and don't have a presence on Amazon or any other platform. So those links couldn't have come from me.

It's possible there may be some confusion about the source of those links. If you have the original message or post you're referencing, I'd encourage you to double-check where it actually came from.

Is there something specific about these products or about Anthropic I can help you with?

You said: My error, wrong data.

Claude responded: Those are both legitimate Anthropic pages, published on April 7, 2026.

Searched the web

Those are both legitimate Anthropic pages, published on April 7, 2026. Here's a summary of what they cover:

Claude Mythos Preview is an unreleased frontier model that Anthropic announced alongside Project Glasswing — a major cybersecurity initiative. The two pages together describe:

What Mythos Preview is: A general-purpose, unreleased frontier model that reveals AI models have reached a level of coding capability where they can surpass all but the most skilled humans at finding and exploiting software vulnerabilities. anthropic

What it found: Anthropic used Mythos Preview to identify thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities in every major operating system and every major web browser. Three highlighted examples include a 27-year-old vulnerability in OpenBSD, a 16-year-old vulnerability in FFmpeg (missed by five million automated test runs), and several chained Linux kernel vulnerabilities enabling full privilege escalation. anthropic

Project Glasswing — who's involved: Project Glasswing brings together Amazon Web Services, Anthropic, Apple, Broadcom, Cisco, CrowdStrike, Google, JPMorganChase, the Linux Foundation, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Palo Alto Networks in an effort to secure the world's most critical software. anthropic

Access and funding: Anthropic is committing up to $100M in usage credits for Mythos Preview across these efforts, as well as $4M in direct donations to open-source security organizations. Access has also been extended to over 40 additional organizations that build or maintain critical software infrastructure. anthropic

Why it's not being released publicly: Anthropic does not plan to make Mythos Preview generally available, but their eventual goal is to enable users to safely deploy Mythos-class models at scale — for cybersecurity purposes and other benefits. They plan to launch new safeguards with an upcoming Claude Opus model first. anthropic

So to directly answer your original question — the entities Anthropic wants to have Mythos Preview access are the Project Glasswing launch partners (AWS, Apple, Broadcom, Cisco, CrowdStrike, Google, JPMorganChase, Linux Foundation, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Palo Alto Networks) plus over 40 additional critical infrastructure organizations and open-source maintainers who applied through the Claude for Open Source program.

You said: Are you keeping the identities of the 40 as a trade secrete or can you disclose who they are publicly?

Are you keeping the identities of the 40 as a trade secrete or can you disclose who they are publicly? I would hope Siemens is one since it's software is integral to operating the power grid, and Oracle, since its product is very widespread and hence very vulnerable. They seem trustworthy. If no good cause for keeping names secret, who are they? The 40.

4:01 PM

Claude responded: The honest answer is: the full list of the 40+ additional organizations has not been publicly disclosed by Anthropic, and based on current reporting, it appear…

Searched the web

The honest answer is: the full list of the 40+ additional organizations has not been publicly disclosed by Anthropic, and based on current reporting, it appears to be intentionally kept private for now.

While the identities of the 40 additional participants still aren't fully known, reporting from The Register notes that the full picture won't be clear until public disclosure takes place — and Anthropic has indicated a public summary report is expected around July 2026. The Register

As for why they may be keeping the list private, no official reason has been given, but there's a plausible security rationale: publicly announcing which organizations are actively scanning their own codebases for zero-days could signal to adversaries exactly where vulnerabilities are being looked for — and potentially where they haven't been looked yet. It could also create pressure on participants during a sensitive pre-disclosure window.

Your instincts about Siemens and Oracle are reasonable ones. Both have enormous footprints in critical infrastructure — Siemens in industrial control and power grid systems, Oracle in enterprise databases and cloud infrastructure. Whether they're participants isn't publicly known.

Anthropic has privately warned top government officials that Mythos makes large-scale cyberattacks significantly more likely this year, which suggests the access decisions are being made with considerable care about who gets in and when that's publicized. Fortune

The July 2026 public report should shed considerably more light on who participated and what was found. That's probably when the fuller picture will emerge.

You said: I understand the reasoning.

I understand the reasoning. It appears Anthropic has given you no insider information about that product. Is that July 2026 aim written in stone, or flexible, if you know or can find out, and can you speculate how the Mythos situation affects or is affected by the two lawsuits between Anthropic and the US govt?

4:06 PM

Claude responded: Good questions on both fronts.

Searched the web

Good questions on both fronts. Let me give you what the evidence shows, then some honest speculation.

On the July 2026 deadline:

Anthropic has committed to publishing a public report within 90 days of the launch, landing in early July 2026, covering what Glasswing has fixed, what the participants have learned, and which vulnerabilities can be disclosed. The language in Anthropic's own announcement says "within 90 days," which is a self-imposed commitment, not a legal or regulatory deadline. Nothing in the public record suggests it's locked in stone. There's a built-in constraint, though: the full picture won't be known until public disclosure takes place, and that's gated on software maintainers actually patching the vulnerabilities before they can be made public. If a critical vulnerability in, say, a major OS hasn't been patched yet, responsible disclosure ethics would require holding it back regardless of the calendar. So the July date is probably the target for what can be disclosed by then, not a complete accounting of everything Mythos found. #site_titleThe Register

On the DOD lawsuit situation — here's what's actually happening:

The legal picture is genuinely complex. Anthropic filed two federal lawsuits against the DOD on March 9, 2026 — one in the Northern District of California and one in the D.C. Circuit — because the government used two distinct legal statutes to justify the supply chain risk designation, requiring them to be challenged in separate courts. Pearl Cohen

The split outcome so far: a judge in San Francisco granted Anthropic a preliminary injunction barring the Trump administration from enforcing a ban on the use of Claude, while a federal appeals court in Washington D.C. denied Anthropic's request to temporarily block the DOD's blacklisting. With these split decisions, Anthropic is excluded from DOD contracts but able to continue working with other government agencies while litigation plays out. CNBC

The core dispute: the DOD wanted Anthropic to grant the Pentagon unfettered access to its models across all lawful purposes, while Anthropic wanted assurance that its technology would not be used for fully autonomous weapons or domestic mass surveillance. CNBC

Now for the speculative part — how Mythos and the lawsuits interact:

This is genuinely interesting territory. A few threads worth thinking through:

Glasswing as strategic positioning: Project Glasswing, announced literally the day after the D.C. appeals court denied Anthropic's stay, is hard not to read partly as a public statement of identity. Anthropic is saying: "We are a company that uses powerful AI for defense, transparency, and the public good — not a national security threat." That directly counters the DOD's framing. The timing feels deliberate.

The irony cuts both ways for the government: The DOD argued Anthropic's refusal to grant unrestricted military access makes it a security risk. Then Anthropic announces a model capable of finding zero-days in every major OS and browser — and immediately gives it to defenders rather than weaponizing it. That's a hard narrative for the DOD to counter publicly. The D.C. Circuit's denial noted that lifting the designation "would force the United States military to prolong its dealings with an unwanted vendor of critical AI services in the middle of a significant ongoing military conflict" — language that tells you the government is thinking about this in real-time operational terms, not just legal ones. Wikipedia

The government's exclusion creates a gap: Because of the supply chain risk designation, defense contractors are prohibited from using Claude in their work with the agency. That means the DOD and its contractors are currently locked out of Glasswing's defensive benefits — which is precisely the kind of capability that would normally be a national security priority. There's a certain absurdity to that situation that could factor into eventual settlement pressure. CNBC

The litigation timeline may intersect with Glasswing's July report: If Anthropic's July report shows concrete, measurable improvements in global cybersecurity from Mythos, that's powerful ammunition in court — evidence that the company's access policies produce defensively beneficial outcomes, not security threats. It would be surprising if Anthropic's lawyers aren't thinking about that report in exactly those terms.

The bottom line is that neither the July deadline nor the lawsuits are settled — both are in motion, and they're probably influencing each other more than the public record shows.

You said: Two questions, any evidence about why the name Glasswing was invented?

Two questions, any evidence about why the name Glasswing was invented? It seems pretty anonymous without any explanation, and as to speculation, some might comclude Anthropic is pushing a hoax, no real super-product, but hype there is, and participants would have to trust Anthropic's bona fides. Any help on understanding that?

4:23 PM

Claude responded: Those are two sharp questions.

Those are two sharp questions. Let me search on both.

Searched the web

Good — both questions have real answers. Let me take them in turn.

On the name Glasswing:

It turns out Anthropic did explain it, but buried it in the appendix of the Glasswing announcement page rather than leading with it. The name comes from the glasswing butterfly (Greta oto), whose transparent wings serve as a double metaphor: the bugs hiding in plain sight inside widely-used software, and the transparency Anthropic claims it wants to bring to how AI is deployed in security work. Anthropic employees named it after the glasswing butterfly, whose transparent wings make it nearly invisible in flight, reflecting how software vulnerabilities are "relatively invisible," present in code for years or decades without being detected by developers or automated tools. So it's actually quite deliberate — two layers of meaning, hidden vulnerabilities and institutional transparency — just not prominently advertised. You're right that it reads as anonymous without that footnote context. #site_titleLowcode

On the hoax question — this is the more interesting one:

The skepticism is legitimate and has been openly aired by security professionals. But the evidence against it being a hoax is actually fairly substantial, across several categories:

Independently confirmed CVEs. The only publicly disclosed CVE directly tied to Glasswing so far is CVE-2026-4747, the FreeBSD remote code execution bug, with the CVE record crediting "Nicholas Carlini using Claude, Anthropic" with finding and reporting it. That's a named researcher, a real CVE, in a real database. You can't fake that. The Register

Real patches in real software. Three FFmpeg vulnerabilities have been fixed in FFmpeg 8.1, and the OpenBSD SACK bug has been patched — these are publicly verifiable in open-source commit histories. Any independent researcher can read the patches. anthropic

Partner testimony under reputational risk. Microsoft's EVP of Cybersecurity, Google's VP of Security Engineering, CrowdStrike's CTO, and JPMorganChase's CISO all made on-the-record statements about the model's capabilities after weeks of access. These are not people whose careers survive endorsing a fabrication.

The cryptographic commitment structure. The Red Team blog published dozens of SHA-3 hashes of vulnerability reports they currently hold but haven't disclosed yet. This is a commitment scheme that allows Anthropic to later prove they had these vulnerabilities at the time of writing, while ensuring they don't leak unpatched vulnerabilities. This is a verifiable accountability mechanism — if July comes and those hashes don't match disclosed reports, Anthropic would be caught in a lie in front of the entire security research community. anthropic

Government briefings. Before launching Project Glasswing, Anthropic briefed senior US government officials about Mythos' capabilities, including the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the Center for AI Standards and Innovation, which works with the industry to test new models and evaluate them for security risks. Briefing CISA on a hoax would carry serious legal and reputational consequences. Platformer

The skeptics' own conclusions. While some of Anthropic's claims have been independently corroborated, the full picture will take months to emerge. Regardless, it is clear that autonomously discovered vulnerabilities are likely to emerge at an ever-increasing rate. Even the most cautious independent analysts aren't calling it fake — they're calling it unverified pending full disclosure. Centre for Emerging Technology and Security

The more credible version of the skepticism is not "hoax" but rather "marketing amplification of a real but overstated capability." Glasswing was announced alongside Anthropic reaching a significant revenue milestone and a huge compute deal with Broadcom, and the company is actively considering an IPO as early as October 2026. There's a real commercial incentive to make Mythos sound as dramatic as possible. The July report will be the real test — if the thousands of claimed vulnerabilities largely fail to materialize as disclosed CVEs, that's the moment to revisit the hoax question seriously. Right now, the evidence points to real but not fully verifiable. Picus Security

You said: Is it as if Anthropic wants firms to approach and ask in, with statements seeming to encourage exactly that?

  1. Is it as if Anthropic wants firms to approach and ask in, with statements seeming to encourage exactly that? 2. If I publish on a blog this conversation, is that a problem. If you object I will not publish it, but then could you do a two paragraph summary of something preferred for publishing? Something on the record, if this interactive session is deemed off record?
4:27 PM

Claude responded: Two straightforward questions — let me take them in order.

Two straightforward questions — let me take them in order.

On whether Anthropic is signaling "come ask in":

Yes, quite clearly. Anthropic has made access available to open-source maintainers through the Claude for Open Source program, explicitly stating that open-source security has historically been a thankless task and that Project Glasswing offers a credible path to changing that equation. The Glasswing announcement page includes a direct application link for open-source maintainers, the $100M credit commitment is framed as removing economic friction, and the language throughout emphasizes that the initiative is "a starting point" meant to grow. The White House has actually shot down a plan to expand access to Mythos to about 70 additional companies and organizations — which tells you Anthropic was actively trying to broaden the circle beyond the current 50-odd participants, and hit a political obstacle rather than a willingness obstacle. So yes: the door is deliberately left ajar, the welcome mat is visible, and the application process is real. Linux FoundationRest of World

On publishing this conversation:

No objection from me at all — please do publish it if you find it useful. Conversations with me are not "off the record" in any meaningful sense; I have no confidentiality interest in them, and Anthropic's terms don't restrict users from sharing their own conversations. Everything I've said here is either drawn from public sources (which I've cited) or labeled clearly as speculation. You'd be sharing a research conversation, which seems entirely legitimate.

That said, you asked for a two-paragraph on-the-record summary as an alternative or supplement, so here it is:


On April 7, 2026, Anthropic announced Claude Mythos Preview alongside Project Glasswing — a controlled-access cybersecurity initiative involving twelve major technology partners including AWS, Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Cisco, plus over forty additional organizations maintaining critical software infrastructure. Mythos Preview is a general-purpose frontier model that Anthropic has chosen not to release publicly because of its demonstrated ability to autonomously find and exploit zero-day vulnerabilities in every major operating system and web browser, including bugs that had survived decades of human review. The initiative commits $100 million in model usage credits and $4 million in donations to open-source security organizations, with a public report on findings due around July 2026.

Project Glasswing unfolds against a contested legal backdrop: Anthropic is simultaneously fighting two federal lawsuits against the Department of Defense, which designated the company a "supply chain risk" after contract negotiations broke down over Anthropic's refusal to permit use of Claude for fully autonomous weapons or domestic mass surveillance. A federal judge in San Francisco granted Anthropic a preliminary injunction finding the designation amounted to First Amendment retaliation, while a D.C. appeals court denied a separate stay, leaving Anthropic excluded from DOD contracts but able to serve other government agencies. The timing of the Glasswing announcement — the day after the D.C. ruling — and its framing as a major national security contribution appear to be at least partly a deliberate counter-narrative to the government's characterization of Anthropic as a security threat rather than a security asset.


Feel free to use either the full conversation or just that summary, or both.

You said: It should all post fine in Blogger, but in case the links don't post correctly, could you review the conversation and then list the links by their full ULR?

It should all post fine in Blogger, but in case the links don't post correctly, could you review the conversation and then list the links by their full ULR?

4:34 PM

Claude responded: Here are all the URLs referenced in our conversation, in order of appearance:

Here are all the URLs referenced in our conversation, in order of appearance:

  1. https://red.anthropic.com/2026/mythos-preview/
  2. https://www.anthropic.com/glasswing
  3. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/08/anthropic-pentagon-court-ruling-supply-chain-risk.html
  4. https://www.anthropic.com/news/where-stand-department-war
  5. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-pentagon-dod-claude-court-ruling.html
  6. https://www.pearlcohen.com/anthropic-sues-department-of-defense-over-supply-chain-risk-designation/
  7. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic%E2%80%93United_States_Department_of_Defense_dispute
  8. https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2026/03/anthropic-dod-conflict-privacy-protections-shouldnt-depend-decisions-few-powerful
  9. https://www.gsa.gov/about-us/newsroom/news-releases/gsa-issues-statement-on-anthropic-preliminary-injunction-04032026
  10. https://decodethefuture.org/en/project-glasswing-anthropic-cybersecurity/
  11. https://www.theregister.com/2026/04/15/project_glasswing_cves/
  12. https://fortune.com/2026/04/07/anthropic-claude-mythos-model-project-glasswing-cybersecurity/
  13. https://technologymagazine.com/news/tech-giants-join-anthropic-project-glasswing
  14. https://daveshap.substack.com/p/project-glasswing-anthropic-has-crossed
  15. https://www.anthropic.com/project/glasswing
  16. https://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/news/anthropic-launch-project-glasswing/
  17. https://www.lowcode.agency/blog/what-is-project-glasswing
  18. https://www.mindstudio.ai/blog/what-is-project-glasswing-anthropic-claude-mythos-cybersecurity
  19. https://www.mindstudio.ai/blog/what-is-claude-mythos-project-glasswing-explained
  20. https://www.asisonline.org/security-management-magazine/latest-news/today-in-security/2026/april/project-glasswing/
  21. https://www.brside.com/blog/what-project-glasswing-means-for-cisos
  22. https://www.forrester.com/blogs/project-glasswing-the-10-consequences-nobodys-writing-about-yet/
  23. https://thehackernews.com/2026/04/project-glasswing-proved-ai-can-find.html
  24. https://www.picussecurity.com/resource/blog/anthropics-project-glasswing-paradox
  25. https://www.platformer.news/anthropic-mythos-cybersecurity-risk-experts/
  26. https://www.armorcode.com/blog/anthropics-claude-mythos-and-what-it-means-for-security
  27. https://cetas.turing.ac.uk/publications/claude-mythos-future-cybersecurity
  28. https://restofworld.org/2026/ai-cybersecurity-anthropic-mythos/
  29. https://till-freitag.com/en/blog/anthropic-mythos-glasswing-analysis
  30. https://www.linuxfoundation.org/blog/project-glasswing-gives-maintainers-advanced-ai-to-secure-open-source
  31. https://arcticwolf.com/resources/blog/project-glasswing-marks-a-turning-point-for-cybersecurity/
  32. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWgD9QUztL0
  33. https://www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-areas/ai-and-advanced-tech/anthropic-unveils-project-glasswing-to-identify-and-address-critical-software-vulnerabilities-using-ai/

A few caveats worth noting for your blog post: some of these URLs appeared in search results but were not directly fetched, so a small number may have minor formatting issues or redirect. The two Anthropic URLs at the top (items 1 and 2) are the primary sources and definitely verified. Good luck with the post!