Strangely, China is mentioned only once, in passing, while China clearly is a factor.
In part:
“We are level-setting with every country to tell them our expectations. We know who they are. They know who they are,” Bessent told a news conference. “So when the hammer of U.S. Treasury actions falls upon them, they will have no one to blame but themselves.”
Washington has promised the new sanctions would put even more pressure on an Iranian economy already battered by previous sanctions and a U.S. naval blockade. But the announcement Monday provided little detail and did not name which countries could face secondary sanctions. China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are Iran’s largest trade partners.
Bessent said Trump has been “making phone calls to world leaders with specific requests to cease their interactions” with Iran and has already seen results. The UAE announced last week that it was suspending all trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran until further notice after a reported missile attack on the Gulf country.
“I am confident the president, as you all know, is quite persuasive,” Bessent said, adding that the UAE decision was “not a coincidence.”
Arm twisting China is unlikely. Others might step into line because they know Trump is an SOB of unequaled magnitude. Not that Bessant is any better. More excerpting -
Pakistani delegation visits Iran
Pakistan, which played a key role in brokering a 60-day ceasefire in June, sent a high-level delegation to Iran on Monday to encourage the U.S. and Iran to return to negotiations, two senior officials said. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media on the record.
The military confirmed only Field Marshal Asim Munir’s visit, saying it was aimed at de-escalating tensions in the region.
Trump spoke with Munir ahead of the army chief’s visit to Iran, according to a person familiar with the discussion.
So, will it be another bluff, or will there be teeth to the threat? Iran has weapons which could reach regional U.S. oil company assets, and they are the closest of cronies to Trump, so a threat of retaliation there should be expected to affect things.
Last, does Trump really want the current economic situation to change? His oil buddies are gaining record profits, and that's something Trump can chew on before rocking the current stalemate boat.
The guess here, nothing of consequence will result. More bluff and buff, no real will toward any short term change. China needs oil and Iran is positioned to yield China a favorable discount per barrel.
The Carney - Canada situation is more interesting. Canada, long term, will have to reach out, and new Canadian alliances will not dissolve later just because Trump must exit the White House. Trust is a factor and once Canada has formed what it sees as trustworthy new dependencies, it will not come back.
The bridge has been burned. There will still be cross border trade, but Canada will diversify, and like it.
UPDATE: A Crabgrass bet, it will be a while before robotaxies of Teslas will be operational in Vancouver, Winnipeg, Toronto, or Montreal. In part because of winter climate and battery chemistry, a matter affecting Minnesota too, but then also, China could look to Canada as it has to Mexico and South America, as a potential foreign plant locale. Jobs to Canada, via a trade war from Trump.
Why not?