Developers are Crabgrass : 1. I may croak. 2. I don't like standing in lines, especially where Swift's endorsement may have young gum chewing girls in the line. 3. Aside from causes to vote early, should I trust polls or betting odds or market pricing of Trump's stock?

Friday, September 13, 2024

1. I may croak. 2. I don't like standing in lines, especially where Swift's endorsement may have young gum chewing girls in the line. 3. Aside from causes to vote early, should I trust polls or betting odds or market pricing of Trump's stock?

Voting early gives me the chance to chat with the town's receptionist at City Hall, no crowding, and if run over by a Peterbilt with bad brakes before election day my vote will count as legal when cast, and alive to cast it.

Standing in line with bubblegum chewing girls: That's unfair to Taylor Swift and her fan base, and envious of her popularity and wealth. And if old enough to register and vote, they are young women, not "girls," where I know this and respect it, but thought "girls" would be more provocative for headlining.

(Crabgrass has generated no giant young women fan base, and I cannot sing. Jealousy abounds. Swift's young too, not with one foot in the grave as here.)

The heart of the post is to look at polling "science" and betting "instinct" as ways of forecasting the election early, while without a crystal ball. Making life easy, first, a chart after "The Debate" where Trump opened talking of Haitians in Ohio eating neighbors' pets, and then DailyBeast; chart first, from EmptyWheel:

break at Sept. 11, the day following The Debate

That's betting instinct, as that's what investment is - now, DB:

Trump Tanks in Election Betting Odds After Harris Debate
CHIPS ARE DOWN
The former president’s rambling about dog-eating and crowd sizes seemingly didn’t inspire confidence.
Dan Ladden-Hall
News Correspondent
Published Sep. 11, 2024 9:41AM EDT ----- [day after debate]
Donald Trump nosedived in several election betting markets after his performance against Kamala Harris in their first presidential debate Tuesday night.
The Republican nominee had a 46.8 percent chance of winning in November compared with Harris’ 51.9 percent as of early Wednesday, according to electionbettingodds.com. The site, which uses odds data from four markets, reported that Trump saw a 3.7 percent decline in the last 24 hours while the vice president surged 4.8 percent.

Trump’s chances of returning to the White House also got longer on Polymarket, the prediction market where users bet cryptocurrencies on who will win the election. [...] A separate market on the site about who polls will say won the debate currently gives Harris a 99 percent chance.

On PredictIt, buying a share on Monday to predict a Harris victory in the election would cost 53 cents—indicating an approximate 53 percent chance—while buying a share for Trump would cost 52 cents. As of Wednesday morning, backing Harris costs 56 cents while Trump’s have fallen to 47 cents.

Harris now has a 2.7 percentage-point lead over Trump in an average of national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight.
The bad news doesn’t end there for Trump. Shares in his social media company Trump Media & Technology Group—the parent company of Truth Social— [...] which has been bought and sold as a kind of proxy for Trump’s chances of winning in November, is mostly owned by Trump himself.

And we've seen the chart. Crabgrass only quotes DailyBeast, but there were multiple returned items, over two web searches:

Search = poll industry is hopelessly infected by gamblers trying to change the odds.

Search = any change betting odds after trump eating pets comment

I'll check those links, but there is sentiment-bias to both, as phrased - that is admitted, so readers might want to do their own differing web searches, (certainly if sentiments differ).

Some discussion: Betting on U.S. midterm elections in 2022 was limited, stateside, but detailed English betting exists now (13 Sep 2024, 07:00). If the links above are modified, past day, past month, readers get the latest. Also, the pet eating thing may have begun with JD:

https://www.emptywheel.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Screenshot-2024-09-12-at-14.38.00.png

That tweet being from Sept. 9, (pre-Debate) - and Vance appears to be doubling down on the story, refusing to admit to likelihoods; and what would he say if Springfield, Ohio, residents, in very small numbers, swore they'd seen Bigfoot? Also, the story now includes trapping geese to eat, which is a bit distant to cats and dogs being abducted and eaten, and a very lame way out. That, while yesterday it was reported Trump was campaigning, Laura Loomer, in tow:

Former president Donald Trump has traveled the country this week accompanied by far-right activist Laura Loomer, unnerving some GOP allies with his increasing embrace of a provocateur with a history of espousing conspiracy theories and incendiary rhetoric.

“The history of statements by Ms. Loomer are beyond disturbing,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said in an interview Thursday. “I hope this problem gets resolved. I think we should be talking about things that people are concerned about, and this issue, I think, doesn’t help the cause.”

Lindsey was speaking of Loomer, but equally could have been speaking to the pet eating issue. Why Trump - Vance want to demonize and scapegoat Haitians in Ohio is for them to explain, but it's not seeming to be gaining many votes.

From Women's March - 10-2-2021 - imagery speaks

Image is cropped from one of a series of Buzzfeed images. Click the image to access the Buzzfeed coverage of that march. This was a major event in Washington, D.C., and it happened mid-way after Trump had been fired by voters in the 2020 election, and before the one approaching. To assert as MN GOP politicians have that abortion is not an issue is an insensitive fiction concocted in some smoke filled GOP backroom. Do not let a GOP intent to deceive misleed your vote. The issue IS ON THE BALLOT. Women deserve dominion over their bodies, we all deserve privacy in our lifetime decision making.

Cracker fear and loathing toward Critical Race Theory has its precedent.

The precedent - Integration dodging intent behind segregated "non-profit" private schools, after the Brown decision was issued. Leading a twisted mind, Paul Weyrich, to issue-monger.

Politico in 2014 posted the true history of the ginned up propagandized opposition to abortion among the nation's hordes of Evangelicals as the "Weyrich solution" to energize the base. Leading to grave mischief. Evangel-Jesus-jockeys, with fellow travelers, (many of whom are surveyed as not as worked up about Roe as Alito would want you to falsely believe). Some, "foaming-at-the-mouth" rabid, however -

This is for you, Gipper and crowd.

Click that Wikipedia image, get THE STORY (and a link to the enlarged image, copyright info and all). GET: Online info leading into a new year via some pre-1947 new "old thoughts." New to many first time voters - this cycle. Not the thoughts, but the history. A history not to be found in Gipper speech transcripts, nor the Gipper's presidential library papers. Hello, Joe, Dem Party history, so pay attention. Pre-Clinton, Pre-Obama, but Dem party new-old nostalgia. Good old ways. Show the guts to walk that talk.

War Crime - Crime Against Humanity - Today, Now.

Let's go Brandon?

Yes, it relates to a NASCAR event, NASCAR attendees making a statement. But given how fifteen bucks got disappeared, and now Build Back Inconsequentially is pending, shouldn't we all chant? Trust whoever you care to, but wouldn't you like to see trust earned? Actions speak louder than words, while inaction when action is needed speaks loudest? Truthfully so? Pharma prices if anything have gone upward since Trump left while Manchin's daughter's a part of it via her grotesque EpiPen market manipulation and price gouging (a/k/a contract, combination, conspiracy in restraint of trade to gain market segment monopolization). Who might they want to fool? Biden's Justice Department appearing to not be looking at EpiPen under antitrust criminal law? Student debt relief is an aim of many, yet Biden has made no move to be helpful. Never mind Medicare for All sidetracked - Not even cosmetic change is being made to Obama's Romneycare? Taking progressives for a buggy ride? DC redux? Money talks? A Congress of old owned lackeys? Let's go Brandon?

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MYOGA - Make Yacht Owners Gain Again

A RIGHT - not a privilege - EVERYBODY'S RIGHT - no limits

JOE BIDEN DOES NOT SUPPORT MEDICARE FOR ALL. That is because Biden's billionaires want to keep every last one of the people beholden, manageable that way, willing to compromise and to worry about the next paycheck and the mortgage, rather than worrying abstractly over the grossly unfair distribution of wealth and power in our nation. Reform of that situation is needed. HOWEVER, with the Biden White House team, we must wait for HOPE and CHANGE. He owes, as a career politician now a millionaire himself, after NOT ever biting a feeding hand. We need Bernie.

Bernie ran for President. Who cares?

Bernie Sanders early 2019 crowds from before the Democratic Party oligarchs did him in, Clyburn, Bloomberg, Biden - the usual suspects. What resonated with those crowds - a candidate for justice and fairness, finally and for us all: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7DRwz0cAt0 Joe Biden could have a Lincolnian legacy, if he cuts and runs from the big donor class he has so far courted, makes his platform the heart of that speech and delivers on the promises. If there is the will, there is the way.

More meddlesome in U.S. of A. politics. More money spent over Russians? Does that compute?

click here for image source plus NYTimes coverage.

Will there be blowback? There seems to be a disproportionate sense to DC's media-mania focus. Russians seem to make better theater, while Israelis generate movement on a scale Putin could only dream of? Essays and books could be written . . . However, in 2012 Romney and Bibi preceded Donald and Vlad mischief, in attempted outsider bias of U.S. national elections. Donald never visited Vlad in Russia. Romney did visit and schmooze Bibi, in Israel. "Double standard?" Go figure.

Doug Wardlow's police pal, Bob Kroll.

POLICE ENDORSED has to have a meaning, a context, and a discernible personality. G.R.Anderson writing over a decade ago, in a CityPages item, puts in a context, Bob Kroll, further fleshed out, here. It behooves the public to know who the supporters of a politician are, (photo above), since that reflects on the politician. "Rule of Law" must have a meaning to Kroll, one which few would share. Why is Mainstream Media not asking about POLICE ENDORSED, a Wardlow tout point?

IN ADDITION: In this image, isn't it Bob Kroll standing to the right hand of friend Wardlow? Looks like him. Paired Ellison haters? Anti-Muslim cohorts? How far back does the pairing go? And how has the pairing grown over time or evolved, from what start? Is there some Dobson joinder? The press should inquire.

Douglas Gary Wardlow did not merely throw the first stone . . .

He unleashed an ADF salvo, earning his ADF paycheck. Read about it, here, here and here. Outlawyered on appeal, Wardlow now apparently has no ADF paycheck. Others for ADF are pressing on. ADF appears to be a win-or-go-home team. James Dobson's team, so walk the line. Whatever you think you want, trust me, you do not want James Dobson anywhere near our attorney general office. A Berniecrat is the other choice, and is a good choice because Bernie's policies are the only future the Democratic Party has whether they accept that or not. Aimee Stephens is as human as I am, as human as Wardlow and Dobson and Hillstrom and Pelikan, the latter two seeming to have gone silent. Ms. Stevens should not be bedeviled in this Twenty-first Century. She merely wanted to be herself, do her job, and get her share. That is what each of us wants for ourselves. Evolution of politics is overdue. Ellison got piled on; is getting piled on. Click the above image.

Sell 'em Prosperity Gospel and feed 'em beans. Some never catch on.

What is Prosperity Gospel? It is: Channeling the mind of a brick into GOP and related dogma. Read this Minnesota story. Click the image to read its fine print. (image source: Bluestem Prairie) The image shows a part of the "mind" of a 30 yr. and still-going Prosperity Gospel faithful attendee. A Dev Crabgrass post fleshes things out. Islamaphobia is but one dimension of a larger "GOP base" stupidity. Stupidity you can bank on. HINT: Follow links in items linked here. Questions will get answered. And --- There's more -

DINO NEWS: Democrats in Name Only; they exist as a problem.

a DINO with an up-top money slot

This link. Al Franken in the linked WashTimes item is quoted:
“There are a lot of Minnesotans who are Franken-Trump voters. You have to go and talk to them, and you have to listen. That’s what we need to do. We need to listen.”
Al knows the score better. Al knows Sanders-Franken voter numbers dwarf that Trump-Franken segment, as to where Al needs to pay most attention, "to listen."

Al, in no uncertain terms, should be telling Tom Perez and the beltway money-bunnies of a new fresh smell in the air. Recognizing (in kind wording) one DINO foundation-family's drift, now, into irrelevancy is far from admitting what's relevant and moving full speed to the Bernie side of the force.

Dinosaurs, DINO ways and means, must and will be extinct (can you say "Primary Joe Manchin and Clair McCaskill"). As Al in the item says; listen. Hear Bernie sounding like a giant asteroid strike upon a DINO status quo. Indeed, primary the poster DINO-bunny of artful misdirection and status quo actions, Cory Booker. Gain attention from that, successful or not. Ideally, send Cory to work with Eric Cantor on Wall Street, where his heart is.