Who is buying more Brazilian oil?
Demand from China is driving much of the increase in Brazilian exports, with Chinese imports of Brazilian crude averaging about 1.316 million bpd between January and May this year, compared with about 704,000bpd in 2025, according to Kpler data.
In dollar terms, official data compiled by the Brazil-China Business Council shows that the value of Brazil’s crude exports to China surged by almost 95 percent to $7.2bn in the first quarter of this year.
Meanwhile, India has also sharply increased purchases, with its imports averaging about 238,000bpd between January and May, up from roughly 100,000bpd in 2025, according to Kpler. In April, Brazil became India’s fourth-largest crude supplier.
“China and India, along with other Asian countries, need non-Hormuz alternatives that are politically safer and physically available,” Ritolia said.
“Brazil’s medium-sweet pre-salt grades fit many Asian refinery slates, and Asian buyers are competing for barrels not exposed to Gulf shipping risk.”
India’s demand is also being driven by rising fuel consumption at home, unlike China, which has pivoted more heavily to electric vehicles (EVs).
India also has less flexibility to absorb a prolonged disruption through strategic reserves, meaning refiners have a stronger incentive to keep crude flowing if supplies are available and profitable.
What about countries beyond China and India?
Brazil is also looking to deepen energy ties elsewhere in Asia.
Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira said last week that Brazil is “ready to contribute to the energy safety of Japan” through increased crude exports, adding that Petrobras was prepared to expand its presence there.
The comments came as Brazil steps up diplomatic and economic engagement across Asia, including with South Korea, Japan and other Southeast Asian countries.
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What other constraints exist on Brazilian oil?
Distance is a major issue for Brazilian exports of oil to Asia. Shipping crude from Brazil to China can take roughly 50 days – far longer than Gulf routes – increasing freight costs and tying up tankers in an already strained shipping market.
Russia could also become a stronger competitor later this year as Arctic shipping routes reopen seasonally. Cargoes travelling from Russia’s Arctic terminals to China can take almost half the time of the Brazil-China route.
Last week, the US also announced another 30-day extension of a sanctions waiver on Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded onto tankers at sea.
That could make floating Russian crude more attractive to Asian buyers in the coming months.
“Brazil helps diversify crude imports for Asian countries, but its role as an alternative supplier remains capped by Brazil’s overall crude supply growth, freight economics, and competition from buyers in Europe and the US,” Ritolia said.
[Sumit Ritolia, is identified early in the report as a specialist in modelling refinery and oil markets, and is extensively quoted.]
“As a result, Brazil is a meaningful marginal alternative for Asia during periods of supply disruption, but it is unlikely to become a structural replacement for Middle Eastern crude in the long term.”
From that, it appears tankers are taking a route apart from the Panama Canal, given size beyond the bounds of the Canal. Whether the Strait of Magellan is tried, or a long cross-Atlantic route favored was unclear from the report. Crabgrass guesses cross-Atlantic and South of South Africa, into the Indian Ocean as a route of cheaper vessel insurance and lower risk.
[The Crabgrass headline quote is taken from inside the AJ report.]