With the latest being negotiations, Israel amok, and the Strait closed, kind of, but with some passage and tithing by Iran to let stuff through. Call it a Strait-Up Tariff.
Anyway, figure if there is a permanent Iran Strait-Up Tariff, how does that effect the oil and fertilizer market. In terms of pass-through, the nation or firm owning the cargo would pass through the cost through channels of commerce, with ultimate consumers paying the tariff, just as with Trump's crap-traiffs.
Assume a hypothetical - a tanker with 500,000 barrel cargo, tithed $2,000,000 to get out - entry being untithed - oil at $100/barrel. Or the equivalent price in yuan.
That Strait-Up Tariff would be $2M/5K barrels or $4/barrel, upping Gulf oil, aside from Iranian oil going untithed, or raising the price of Gulf Arab oil to $104/barrel.
The Gulf Arabs would not like such a deal, but what about Trump? US, Nigerian and Venezuelan oil, for example, avoid the tariff because of not shipping out of the gulf. Same for Norwegian oil. One thinks Trump would silently like a price differential in favor of his fossil fuel cronies. Not saying so to piss off the Arabs, but liking the idea.
Trump could cut a deal with Iran charging a fee to pass, with the money split as reparations for the US and Iran, for recovery of sunk costs of warring with one another. Iran gets the Strait-Up Tariff, splits the take, and war is over, hurrah.
So, in negotiations, why not let Iran do it? Other issues, the n-bomb bit, etc, being separate? Screw the Arabs. They've been prospering by screwing the world via OPEC price/volume fixing for decades, after all. They've suffered Iran drone and missile damage but once their oil can reach markets again, they make out like bandits. They may grumble, and buy Ukrainian drones instead of US drones, but the combination of US oil and lng prosperity, including stolen Venezuelan oil sale income would pay back thousands of times over to the US fossil fuel barons who funded the schmuck in the 2024 elections. So they're happy, Trump's happy, Iran's happy, a win win for all but the Gulf Arabs. And, screw them, they're rich enough already.
Not considering any other term of potential war-ending machinery but only US and Iran saying Iran pricing Strait-Up traffic from now on being okay, expect it as part of Trump cutting a deal. Why not?
Israel? Wanting regime change? Still in Lebanon? Screw them. Bibi wrongly talked Trump into this shit to begin with, so let Bibi twist in the wind. He sold the bad package, so why save his ass? He pushes settlements and Greater Israel, so if he wants to continue fighting for it, let him. Him and his regime. Israel can vote his regime out anytime, if unhappy. Prosecute him, since that business is hanging fire.
Israel has done a lot to bollix up a negotiated quick peace, wanting a long war with ultimate regime change, and Trump's poll numbers are tanking, so which do you see Trump paying the most attention to?
The Saudis want a regime change also, and after WWII Roosevelt and King Saud cut the deal that the US would defend the Saudis in exchange for oil being priced worldwide in dollars, so there is that complication, but do you think Trump cares more about dollar hegemony or his poll numbers? That would depend upon pressure on him from the domestic investment community and others with vested interests in dollar hegemony, like the US public, but Trump doesn't care a rat's ass about the US people, their social security, or even their Social Security. Keep 'em on the razor's edge. Paycheck to paycheck. Healthcare uncertain. It's good for them. It makes them less willing to hit the streets in protest, if stretched out on tenterhooks.
It's all about himself, screw the dummies who elected him, he's a lame duck wanting an easy exit. There will be enough interests wanting to keelhaul him once out of office, that one more, a few people more, so what? He really doesn't seem to give a shit. Enhance personal wealth for the family and cronies from having the office, but otherwise, let the next folks up do the mop-up. He knows he's on the edge of croaking and does not care what a crap-fest comes after.
All that, presuming he's cogent in doing his evil, which is an up-for-grabs question.
Let Hegseth keep beating his Christian Nationalist war drums, or "Bondi" him, either way Trump's pliant. He's used Christian Nationalism, yes, but that's past tense. He likely cares more about another crypto adventure than an ongoing war.
And Melania giving that Epstein speech? Wha's Happening with over half the files still withheld, and with what's public full of perp redactions? Interesting event, surely, Melania choosing now, and the subject matter. Not Bondi's cross to bear anymore. For the new AG guy.