https://emptywheel.net/2026/04/12/having-failed-to-win-a-marathon-sic-without-training-trump-announces-blockade-of-irans-blockade/
Israel Today reports on the Caspian strike impacting Russia-Iran trade.
Turkish reporting on Iranian fuel refining:
Iran expects to restore most of its
damaged refining and distribution facilities to 70–80% of pre-war
capacity within one to two months, Deputy Oil Minister Mohammad Sadeq
Azimifar said Sunday.
He added that part of the Lavan refinery,
which was struck even after the ceasefire, will partially resume
operations within approximately 10 days.
Lavan refinery to partially restart within 10 days
Azimifar,
who also serves as CEO of the National Iranian Oil Refining and
Distribution Company, told the Student News Network (SNNTV) that
recovery work began immediately after each attack.
Ukraine striking Russian drilling platforms in Caspian Sea.
Israeli reporting Russia possibly is using Caspian trade to supply Iran weaponry:
Recently, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that today, drone
shipments are traveling in the reverse direction. Russia is sending Iran
“Iranian” drones manufactured on Russian soil. The Ukrainian
president’s statement fully withstands the test of plausibility, given
the severe damage to Iran’s weapons production infrastructure.
Additionally, recent reports (which we cannot verify) have emerged
claiming that remnants of a drone manufactured in Russia were located in
Dubai following an Iranian attack. One of the fastest possible routes
for such shipments from Russia to Iran is via the Caspian Sea. Along
Iran’s Caspian coast, several seaports operate. One of these is Bandar
Anzali, located northwest of the city of Rasht. On March 18, the port
area was attacked by Israel, and several ships were hit, including a
military headquarters and a shipyard. As we assessed before the war,
with high probability, Russia will assist Iran with intelligence and
diplomacy. Is Russian assistance escalating, and is Russia attempting to
establish an arms transfer corridor to Iran via the Caspian Sea?
AP reporting:
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iranians reacted with a mixture of disappointment
and defiance on Sunday after peace talks with the United States failed to reach an agreement following hourslong negotiations.
U.S. officials said the talks collapsed over what they described as Iran’s refusal to commit to abandoning its nuclear program. Iranian officials blamed the U.S. for failing to reach a deal, without specifying the sticking points.
The failure of the high-stakes talks in Pakistan after 21 hours casts doubt over the future of a fragile two-week ceasefire, due to expire on April 22.
While
the fragile ceasefire seems to hold, the war is not over and
uncertainty remains in the streets of Tehran where some residents were
reluctant to speak to the media.
Iranians have been living in
digital blackout for over a month after the internet was blocked shortly
after the war started on Feb. 28. Since then, the population has been
relying on state-controlled media, with a limited number of people
having access to overseas satellite TV channels for access to
information.
All this sourcing is not unique, but it gives links EmptyWheel did not include, and relates to much EmptyWheel opined. Crabgrass recommends reading the EW item, and using above links if any reader wants further info.
Noting Iranian refinery info was added to suggest Iran is less a refiner than a crude oil exporter, the Saudis for example being big both ways. It is possible refined oil products from Russia to Iran are traded on the Caspian, which would be civilian trade, but with military possibilities.