Who knows, first, the mind reading part, between those ears is a morass.
Second, getting a deal? Kalshi as my barometer.
Not a blind fucking guess, but a Prediction Market hedge situation in real time. Yeah, sure. Bet on it.
____________________UPDATE________________
Allegedly, a tight Trump pre-war series of stuff was "leaked." Emptywheel explores this, so see there, and links in the post, for detail.
Multiple outlets get leaked to? About war planning? Strange, indeed. Try a scenario -
You as president of USA have oil cronies. They funded a great amount toward your election.
Before any war with Iran, you seize a stake in Venezuelan oil, to go with fracked fossil fuel being churned out in record amounts in the USA.
Then you promise 4 weeks, and start the Iran war.
Your oil cronies prosper from the Strait being impacted, it was clearly foreseeable it would be, and the longer it is impacted the more money the cronies make.
You threaten Iran's oil, Iran says you attack it, Kharg Island, then the Iranians say do that and we'll destroy Persian Gulf regional USA oil assets, all we can reach with our drones and missiles.
You want to bomb, your cronies will suffer, conveniently, you have a TACO reputation, and you decline followup on your threat.
Threat after threat, looking tough, each with a backoff event conveniently happening.
Things drag on. Cronies prosper as things drag on.
You want to look different than you plan. You deliberately and selectively leak, a story, one you like, then atop a pile of stories of the reporting of "planning," as leaked - whatever truth may be, a sticky atop that pile with TREASON written on it with your sharpie, and you give that pile to your pliant interim AG to "investigate." You look seriously concerned that way, and it locks everybody into the story as you want it seen. Because no insider steps up to say boo after things that way are set up.
The pliant interim AG, your former personal lawyer, after time indicates an inability to pin things down about who leaked what to which outlet, at least three outlets got stories, and they assert privilege as to sources.
Not that anybody would do that, it would be vile and sneaky, but it is only a hypothetical. Not real. Not suggested any such scenario is anything but a hypothetical. In anything there are risks. People would say anybody having a war drag on as an unintended thing looks brash in planning, with no offramp, and they will question your age and mental vigor. That might be a risk, especially if old and loosing some shaprness is an actual fact. You'd possibly suffer a declined opinion among those who'd voted for you. Not that it would impact the balance of your second term. (In the hypothetical we would presume a second term. And age as a factor.)