Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Big surprise. Northstar ridership lags behind pundit forecasts that were trotted out during the Dan Erhart gets what Dan wants days. Big question, if you spend more, is it best for more train runs, or more stops?

Strib reports. Presently there are 127 comments. Many of the initial ones you read are about the paucity of runs. That's because things were flawed from the start. Met Council does not own the right of way. Burlington Northern does, and any time you want a change it means throwing more sacks full of millions at their feet, as they disdainfully make a concession or two. That's no way to run a railroad.

So, money-wise. Either pull in your horns on this behind-forecasts venture, the most sensible step, or spend more on the theory prevalent in City of Ramsey that spending more money on a proven failure will change it.

If the latter approach is taken, is the more sensible thing to have more runs - outside of the Twins specials and the commuter schedule favoring folks who work downtown and never have to work late on anything?

Those who do the happy hour thing, or need to work late, find they've a problem with Northstar scheduling. The comments to the Strib reporting include that focus.

Another way to dump tons of cash into the thing is to extend it to St. Cloud, so that ridership numbers 4/5 of what the pundits promised can be expanded to a greater and more costly range.

Again, good sense is to pull in your horns. You have what you have. You can hope it gets better but it's already been bought, whether that was a sound or unsound step. But a failure deserves caution, not headlong plunging of more cash into it. Times are hard. The legislature is Republican.

That combination is poison to money being well spent, if spent at all. Given that, and the Abeler positioning with seniority - my guess is that the wanted but unneeded Ramsey stop will prevail over any expansion of train runs to a larger time frame coverage. That's a guess, but it's all been "want" and never has been "need" from Danny's initial train fetish onward.

Yes, a comprehensive mass transit twenty-first century system is overdue. I do not dispute that.

Always, however, after Hiawatha, I have believed that Northstar was never the next logical piece. It was done, and it proves itself well short of the boosters' professed expectations. That's fact. No guessing there. Strib reports. Read it, including sampling the comments. It was the land speculators that loved it. Not the rest of us. The land speculators still love it, so watch out. They've got boosters on boards. Indeed, City of Ramsey under current elected leadership has transformed itself into, what else --- a land speculator. So, again, Watch Out.

UPDATE: Please voice a choice in the new sidebar poll. (Open until mid-February) Note that shrinking the Northstar is not offered as a poll option because of the sunk cost in getting the present stops and timings in place. Nor is winding back the clock an option, and undoing the entire thing and spending the money on something perhaps more meritorious. We may wish ---


FURTHER UPDATE: An apology, in adding the new poll I inadvertently removed the Northstar ridership poll before archiving the end result. I think it is fair to summarize, of the twenty or so responses, those responding indicated an infrequent rider status, possibly explaining why the ridership figures are so dismal. 


Also, it raises a question of who benefits from Northstar, and whether there is anything approaching a reasonable cost-benefit balance. The existing Ramsey citizens likely will not ride the thing in any volume beyond a trickle. WHO BENEFITS: Aside from developers such as the rental housing promoters now insinuating themselves into Ramsey, with subsidized parking, an opt-out based on Northstar, and City credit extensions, etc.? Whether or not that narrow a "benefit" is at all fair to existing citizens, it's been done by City officials (with assistance from the Landform firm, as part of its agenda).


The ridership poll response was clear, as was the prevailing poll opinion response on the question of people not wanting to give any free-parking subsidy to the rental housing promoters (while wondering and wanting to know what's in it for Landform's working both sides of the street on that rental housing hummer). Those numbers are being studiously kept from public disclosure - we can ask Diana Lund about what monies the city  has paid Landform regarding that promotion, but how much the promoters paid Landform is a question outside of the Public Data Law; and is not being voluntarily disclosed. Guess why.


FURTHER UPDATE: Arguments that Northstar lessens congestion on Highway 10 are a joke. The entire ridership is minute compared to monthly highway rush hour commuting. Notice that those making the highway-decongestion argument never give the road usage numbers in comparison to Northstar usage. Figure that one out.


One final point, the Strib report has the Northstar management saying they are within budget; but, so what? They have imposed a transit authority tax that never existed before the thing was instituted, and can tax however they want to meet costs. It's not meaningful that they operate within budget, as the revenue end of things includes massive subsidy. 


The ridership income is below cost; that's the bottom line


It is not paying for itself, when you combine debt service and operational cost. It's a loser, fiscally.


FURTHER UPDATE: The "We need it now that we have the Allina and VA clinics," argument begs the question. Sure - folks will ride Northstar in in the morning and stay around Ramsey Town Center until riding out in the evening, that being their Northstar option for a half-hour medical appointment. And pigs will fly. 


Clinic traffic will be people driving in and out and not staying to spend money as the local merchants crave. 


Local merchant traffic is local people, needing/wanting merchandise or beauty shop or exercise club services, or shopping at Coborns. 


That veterans using the clinic from Fridley or Elk River will flow great new business volume to Coborns at the Town Center is pure fantasy.