In order of increasing turnout totals, with screenshots taken the day after caucus at 1:30 pm, from Secretary of State website, the straw poll results [with SoS page links given in party abbreviations] are:
IP
GOP - 99% of precincts tallied - 19,367 voters
DFL - 80% of precincts tallied - 22,136 voters
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In addition, John Marty got 38 (37.5%) of the Green Party vote, with 46% of precincts reported [40.5% Green votes were for none of the above]. How that will play out in future considerations is, at best, speculative. But it does set Marty up as a popular progressive candidate, and that's no surprise to anyone.
It was a dismal turnout compared to the last presidental year caucus cycle.
The IP homesite discloses some form of online caucus finalized Feb. 28, 2010, with it unclear to me how they avoid crossover from other party affiliates who caucused yesterday, from tampering with preferences among IP guv hopefuls. In particular, Horner as GOP-RINO exit candidate, Repya as GOP-true believer exit candidate.
How that plays out, given Emmer trailing Siefert in the GOP view but others shook out, is anyone's guess. Why any sane DFL person would monkey in that IP extended online situation is unclear to me but I could see substantial GOP crossover mischief this go-round.
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In an earlier post, here, I suggested a "progressive" straw poll was unrepresentative. That may have been in error given how the top five spots within the caucus DFL results and the "progressive" results generally overlap and parallel one another, but with order reversal and percentages differing.
There, the top five in decreasing order [with percentages of total 1644 votes cast] are:
Rybak 20.4%
Thissen 16.1%
Kelliher 15.9%
Marty 15.2%
Dayton 8.4%
The sample size is not bad in comparison to caucus goers, but the bias from self identification as "progressive" needs reckoning. The caucus results for the top five in decreasing order [Dayton not being a ballot choice] are:
Rybak 21.8%
Kelliher 20.2%
Marty 9.62%
Rukavina 7.25%
Thissen 7.20%
[uncommitted] 14.6%
The suggestion that caucus goers in the DFL are generally within the more progressive party members, this cycle, might have some validity. With Dayton not on the caucus ballot some of the 14.6% uncommitted might be Dayton supporters.
Rybak atop both results, and Kelliher, Marty, and Thissen being among the top [Thissen substantially stronger among "progressives" than caucus goers]. Rukavina was not favored by "progressives" at 5.6% vs 7.25% at caucus.
Given Rybak atop caucus voting, at about the same percentage as "progressives" voted, and the shifting in the others, Rybak made a substantially stronger showing than I would have thought.
That says little for ultimate endorsement, and with Dayton and Entenza so far committed to run in a primary, the betting window is still open.
In the GOP, is it RIP for Emmer?
Siefert was atop and over 50%, but it was not a decisive thumping. I'd not play Emmer funeral dirges yet.