Tuesday, November 03, 2026

It might be dumbing down politics a notch or two from previous practice, but it might be tomorrow's trend in answer to polling reports on an election day morning. Forbes reports prediction market outlook, from Kalshi

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/ohio-midterm-election-prediction-markets/ 

What we likely will not see at all, or in any believable presentation, a post-election analysis worth the time to read it, of whether polling per traditional methods, or prediction market attention, is the better predictor of actual election outcomes - limited to these 2026 midterms, since prediction markets are a new thing.

Make of it what you will. An alternative is to trust guessing from one who's been viewed as a pundit over time, right or wrong, but ready to voice an opinion: https://www.thedailybeast.com/james-carville-makes-bold-midterm-election-eve-prediction 

The most promising thing is to wait until tomorrow, when actual voting results will be reported. But what's the fun in that? Fun then is whether your voted choices win or not.  Yours win = fun. Their's win = grim acceptance.

UPDATE: Foxrbes - prediction market guessing for Minnesota's midterm elections. Doug Chapin is not getting pred mkt respect in MN CD6. Emmer is the incumbent moron, and improvement would be easy.