Thursday, April 13, 2023

One 2024 Senate race that will heat up nationally is in California, to replace Diane Feinstein.

Two items worth reading now, early in things nationally, Insider

California Rep. Ro Khanna passes on Senate run and backs liberal icon Barbara Lee over Reps. Katie Porter and Adam Schiff: 'She stood up so strongly against the war in Iraq'

NYTimes:

 Ro Khanna Endorses Barbara Lee’s Senate Campaign as He Declines to Run - The race in California to succeed Senator Dianne Feinstein is likely to be one of the most expensive in the nation in 2024.

Lee's years of service, opposition to the Bush Iraq invasion, and Kohana's total support are strong factors. Schiff likely will have the most money backing him.

Arguably of impact, Pelosi commenting:

Nancy Pelosi Says Calls For Dianne Feinstein's Resignation Are Sexist, Politically Motivated

Pelosi might have said "agist" but the "sexist" and "agist" together would ring home.

In a best light, Pelosi left out "agist" in deference to Rep. Lee, who of the three presently contesting Democrats, has lived longest.

Lee has an appeal to many that Schiff and Porter lack. Crabgrass favors her for the seat. Unless much changes, Republicans can mail in their choice. 


UPDATE: LATimes. Money will matter:

Democratic consultant Garry South noted that California is so big that state senators have nearly a quarter-million more constituents than members of Congress. Members of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors each represent well over a million more residents than a congressperson.

Most voters who are not watching cable TV or scrolling through social media don’t know Porter, Schiff or Lee, South said.

“If you walk two or three blocks outside the perimeter of any of their districts, no one is going to know who any of these members are,” he said.

To overcome that disadvantage, the candidates will need widespread and effective political advertising campaigns, and in a state with so many voters and expensive media markets, that will be extraordinarily expensive.

Schiff and Porter are among the most prodigious fundraisers in the House, though Porter had to spend a significant sum in a tight reelection race last year. Lee has not needed to raise large sums, given that her congressional district is among the most liberal in the nation and she has sailed to reelection for decades.

Committees unaffiliated with the campaigns that can raise unlimited sums are already being organized for Schiff and Lee, and probably for Porter as well.

In addition to money, political experts argue that gender and race could be major factors in the Senate race.

South questions just how they might factor in; the Democratic electorate is more female than male, and the state has been represented in the Senate for the vast majority of the last three decades by two women. He also questions whether voters will want to replace Feinstein, an octogenarian, with Lee, a septuagenarian.

“We have a U.S. senator who was the oldest person serving in the Senate,” he said. “I’m not sure voters want to trade her out for someone not quite as old, but up there.”

The mix of candidates in the 2024 Senate race — and whether additional well-known Democrats or prominent Republicans join the field — will be a major factor in the path each hopeful takes in the months ahead.

So, as headlined, things will heat up. Dollars will flow. Republicans will watch.