All the demographics differ in Ramsey, and with a miniscule rental base in the town, it's a lot of guesswork and risk.
However the key question, over all others, is whether the "catalyst" and "momemtum" talk is real or a hope, hype, or a hoax.
Check prior Crabgrass posts. There are links indicating that the Cosmopolitan has mucho housing occupancy with FC being able to jack up the rents on lease renewals, being landlords it is what they do for sport, and yet the "ground floor opportunity" the shop and restaurant space at Cosmopolitan takes gas. E.g., this link, reporting
Another selling point is the potential for rent growth of 6 percent or more per year, given the high demand for Cosmopolitan apartments.
Flaherty has been bumping up rent rates, which range from $1,000 up to $2,500, as terms expire, and would charge more initially for new units in a second phase, Jim Crossin, the company's vice president of development, told IBJ in February.
The first phase of Cosmopolitan had been set for completion by 2009, but a devastating fire in March 2009 delayed the opening by about a year.
The 16,000 square feet of commercial space on the first floor of Cosmopolitan has been less of an overnight success, though the branding and advertising firm Three-Sixty Group agreed in February to take about 5,000 square feet and move from its current home in the Century Building.
Emphasis added. Track record counts. Track record is that over a year's experience in an attractive locale, the rental housing rented to beat gang busters, but in that year only 5000 square feet occupancy, finally after a half year of total vacancy (5000 out of 16000 available means slightly over a 2/3 remaining vacancy rate) is to be shown for the ground floor commercial occupancy catalysis that directly overhead rental allegedly, if you suspend disbelief and buy into the propaganda, "catalyzes." Never mind down the street at Town Center rental, it is drop-down and shop space at Cosmo. No winter walk. No rain, nor wind, nor dark of night.
Clearly - The rental success in Indianapolis did NOT catalyze jack at the lower floor, where the stuff existing Ramsey residents want, shops and restaurants, are NOT materializing.
Four pictures worth five thousaand words. Why do you suppose FC's Cosmo ground floor store fronts look like this?
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| Cosmo: Main retail area entrauce. |
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| Cosmo: Street level exterior |
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| Cosmo: Last pic, detail, ... FOR LEASE |
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| Cosmo: Main retail entry, detail. |
(as always click a thumbnail image to enlarge and view) Storefront windows are not showing you how you can see incredibly neat, attractive store window merchandise to entice you inside. The windows are as they are because you are not encouraged to walk past and look in and see a row of ground floor empty spaces suggesting, what, besides a colossal retail-rental failure?
We are experienced. The one sign says RETAIL SPACE FOR LEASE, and in Ramsey we have seen FOR LEASE enough to know its meaning. Again, go figure.
With the Cosmopolitan as experience, FC did not want to even include a paltry 3000 square feet of commercial in the ramp-wrap adventure in Ramsey by the rails. What does that mean?
Go figure. To my mind, it means the "catalyzing momentum" stuff is pure hoax, or to be less judgmental, more hope than probability.
This high risk thing, ramping up the ramp another story or two, and wrapping it with schlock, may (against my crystal ball saying loudly "Failure prone" and "Very, very, very risky") work, as cash flow producing rental. I would not want to live rabbit-hutch style there, viewing the trade-off for dense shared wall being locale ambience vs. space and distance from others.
Ramsey has much potential in the latter category, the ability to provide large lot space.
Ramsey has zippo to offer as locale ambience that would offset a sacrifice of rabbit-hutch housing. It's not there. Define "culture" in Ramsey? Snow mobile trails? What? The little silly racing thing that the council's been considering? Diamonds? Junior soccer is not likely a luxury rental occupant's first priority. And will it be luxury.
BOTTOM LINE: Flaherty and Collins has justification for wanting to leverage the ramp-wrap by the rails, and to consider it a risk based on no history of any such adventuring to use to guage likelihoods of success or failure, and to also limit its exposure to downside outcomes. Hence, in their position it makes all the sense in the world to say, "Ramsey, town of, if you want this thing for whatever your reasons and hopes are, you carry the lion's share of the risk."
BOTTOM BOTTOM LINE: If it fails, what will be the appearance to the world and the metro region of Ramsey wisdom and reliance, and how will it affect things after the market has rebounded but where locales will continue to compete chasing the illusive goosing up of tax base in excess of cost of servicing the new residents' needs and expectations of local government.
BOTTOM BOTTOM BOTTOM LINE: If the ramp-wrap rental by the rails gets built, and the rental cash flow is stupendous because of high occupancy and ability to command high per square foot rates, will that catalyze momentum for anything actually desired by existing Ramsey residents who gain zippo from crowded traffic situations adjacent to Highway 10, and on it.
There are far, far, far too many contingent hopes to justify putting city millions into this super dumb idea. To borrow a phrase, the entire thing is weapons-grade stupid.