Monday, December 01, 2008

Our Secretary of State's Dec 1 posting has Franken ahead on raw count. Good analysis from two Brit sources, the Bay Area, and Jason Leopold from DC.

The image is from the Economist, which online today reported:

SEVERAL weeks have passed since his stunning victory in the presidential election and Barack Obama is putting the finishing touches to his cabinet. Yet two Senate races from America's general election remain undecided. Georgia is holding a run-off on Tuesday December 2nd; Minnesota is expected to complete a recount and release a new tally by the end of the week. As things stand the Democrats (including two independent senators who caucus with the party) will have 58 Senate seats in the new Congress that starts work early in January, the most held by any party since 1979-81. If they were to win the two outstanding races they would reach 60, the magic number needed to stop a filibuster (in theory anyway).

In Georgia, Saxby Chambliss, the Republican incumbent, won 49.8% of the vote on November 4th, just short of the 50% required by state law to avoid a run-off. In the late summer Mr Chambliss looked like a shoo-in; some polls gave him an 18-point advantage over his Democratic challenger, Jim Martin. But the financial crisis turned even this deep-red state a shade of purple (John McCain won it by just five points).

In November Mr Martin was able to capitalise on voters' anger with the Republican Party and on Mr Chambliss's support for the $700 billion government bail-out package for America’s troubled financial institutions, which remains deeply unpopular with many conservatives. Mr Martin opposed the bail-out and has lambasted Mr Chambliss for saying that he trusts the “folks in the financial community” to use the funds wisely.

The run-off on Tuesday will probably be close. Mr Chambliss has a small lead in the polls. Stars from both parties have gone to Georgia to campaign for the candidates, including Bill Clinton and Al Gore for Mr Martin. John McCain and Mitt Romney have thrown their weight behind Mr Chambliss and on Monday Sarah Palin, still a star turn for the Republicans, will appear at four rallies. Mr Obama has not visited, although an 11th hour appearance could help Mr Martin enormously; blacks made up 28% of the electorate in November's Senate race and their support is crucial if Mr Martin is to stand a chance.

Minnesota's Senate race is a messier affair. The tally in November gave Norm Coleman, the Republican incumbent, a tiny lead of 215 votes (0.007% of the electorate) over Al Franken, his Democratic adversary. This triggered an automatic recount, which should be completed by the end of the week. The latest estimate, according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, gives Mr Coleman a 282-vote lead with 88% of the ballot re-counted.

Mr Franken was dealt a blow last week when the state canvassing board said it did not have the authority to review absentee ballots that have been rejected on technicalities, of which there are some 12,000. The board has asked Minnesota's attorney-general for advice about whom, if anyone, should review those ballots. Both sides are also challenging about 3,500 ballots and are threatening to take the matter to court if the recount doesn't go their way. The canvassing board hopes to certify a result by December 19th.

These Senate races have particular significance to Democratic activists. Mr Coleman won his seat in Minnesota in 2002 after the incumbent, Paul Wellstone, a revered figure on the progressive wing of the party, died in a plane crash two weeks before the election.

But the Democrats will find it particularly satisfying if they unseat the Republican in Georgia. Mr Chambliss also won his seat in the 2002 mid-term elections, during which the Republicans pummelled the Democrats on national security. Georgia's Senate race was very nasty. Max Cleland, then the incumbent, was a Vietnam war hero who lost three limbs in military service.

The Republicans ran a highly controversial ad linking him to Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden. The Democrats made sure to remind voters about this when John McCain visited Georgia recently to stump for Mr Chambliss. It had always seemed improbable that the Democrats could secure the magic number of 60 Senate seats. Now that the prize is within grasping distance they are doing all they can to cross the line.


Another good British write-up is Telegraph, "Republicans battling to shackle Barack Obama's reforming plan," as the headline.

That item is online, reported here.

It would be refreshing to see this Georgia ultra-negative Saxby Chambliss individual get a comeuppance. The name sounds like somebody named after a Confederate general somewhere in the geneology, treasuring stars and bars, all that.

I recall a year of grade school in New Orleans, at ten years old, something about a coin sized medal some carried, R.U.A.K on one side, I.M.A.K on the other. Now I see that Chambliss and Coleman have one thing in common, two sides of one thing actually, each being very GOP, each very favored by the NRA. So go figure.

It would be poetic justice for Max Cleland, were Chambliss to fall with Martin being number 59, in the countdown to sixty. Chambliss was truly odious in running against Cleland and the final wrap-up to this post is a quote indicating he's a leopard not changing his spots.

With the most expensive Senate race ever, ours in Minnesota, still hanging fire, (and that's most expensive not even counting the added extensive recount costs), we appear headed for the canvassing board certifying the recount as a mere intermediate step, with ultimate decision making left for the Courts and/or the Senate.

The Democrat-led Senate holding the hammer is something Coleman folks are really whining over, but it's the law, they have the Constitutional authority to say who is to be seated.

And the Coleman folks are a campaign of whiners Phil Gramm would be able to identify with, whiners who've kept a constant high-pitch whine going almost, not quite, sufficient to drown out the questioning afoot about what did Nasser Kazeminy buy, and what motive had he to assure it was purchased in installments.

Kazeminy comes across as a careful man, not plunging into things full lump-sum up front. He appears to know what insurance & other services he likes, wants, and how to pay in installments for it.

While that Georgia thing's to be tomorrow's big news of the day, presuming there's no razor thin margin there also after the balloting to complicate the hoped-for Chambliss exit, the Minneosta Secretary of State now shows, 91% counted, that of those precincts counted Franken now has the current raw count lead (click to enlarge and read):



MPR and the Public Record [Jason Leopold] analyze the Senate holding the hammer, Leopold commenting at length about the posture and possibilities.

Finally, the closing screenshot followed by the closing quote, are taken from a quite longer post from the Bay Area's beyondchron.org and it features pics of the four players in the unfolding make-it-to-60 drama that is dragging on just a bit too long for most folks.



And there's more:

But anyone who knows Saxby Chambliss could see how he’d capitalize on white racist fears to get re-elected. Even before November, Chambliss noted that a high black turnout in early voting (an Obama-effect that clearly helped Martin) “has also got our side energized.” After he failed to get 50% in the general election and a December run-off was called, Chambliss complained to Fox News that “our folks” didn’t turn out enough.

In the run-off, Chambliss (who’s had the financial edge) has accused Jim Martin of letting children die when he ran the state’s Department of Human Resources – and the Republican Party has charged him with condoning child prostitution. The reason that’s so offensive is that one of Martin’s daughters was kidnapped when she was eight years old, but it’s the same kind of swift-boat attacks we’ve come to expect.


What a dirt bag. May he become as retired from office as Gingrich now is, and may the two of them stay retired.