consultants are sandburs

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

SD35 special election - Abeler wins decisively; Anoka precinct turnout mostly was over 10%, under 10% in most other precincts. BIG QUESTION: Without DFL primary crossover, might Aplikowski have been in Abeler's final vote shoes?

Two screen capture thumbnails; overall numbers, and my precinct's detailed voting.



Phelps did better in my precinct than otherwise, unless he elsewhere topped his W2P1 Ramsey percentage/total votes. Also, in my precinct Abeler did below average, but quite well.

(For precinct by precinct vote-count data click this link to see your precinct's detailed voting.)

It appears Aplikowski supporters who bothered to turnout for the final vote all transitioned to Abeler (who got more total final votes than primary voters without, however, any of the DFL crossover Abeler primary vote support).


In the primary Abeler had a closer contest; with about a 10% turnout each election, and with it appearing DFL crossover helped Abeler substantially, primary time, when Johnson ran unopposed.

Playing with numbers, GOP primary votes: Abeler = 2818 --- Aplikowski = 1807 (Johnson, 282; total, 4907)

Final SD35 special election: Abeler = 3237 -- Johnson = 947 -- Phelps = 180 (29 write-ins; total, 4393)

Turnout for the GOP primary exceeded final turnout by 514 votes; suggesting that many Aplikowski (ultra extremist) Republicans stayed home after Andy lost the primary; and suggesting district demographics being as pitiful as they are, the GOP primary and candidate diversity of the pair generated more interest/uncertainty than once Abeler cleared the primary hurdle.

Phelps+Johnson+write-ins; final election = 1156, so subtract the primary 282 pro forma Johnson votes (he was unopposed) yields 874 non-Abeler votes, in the final election. Presume for sake of argument, those 874 voters (perhaps more to make the greater primary total) were Abeler primary crossover votes. Subtract that supposed 874 crossovers from Abeler's primary total of 2818, getting 1944 non-crossover votes (GOP Abeler loyalists), and the non-crossover margin Abeler had was quite thinner, that 1944 - Aplikowski's 1807 giving a 137 vote swing which can arguably be attributed to the obscene dump that Freedom Club took in its first and most striking mailing against Abeler, and dislike of that "style of things" representing the bulk of the swing count; so that absent crossover and absent Freedom Club meddling from outside of the district, Aplikowski might narrowly have won the primary contest.

Yes there is speculation built into any such number crunching, but it is clear Abeler in the final did take some disgruntled but loyal GOP votes that went to Aplikowski, while many (perhaps a majority) of disgruntled Aplikowski supporters simply stayed home. And the implication that if Freedom Club had not meddled and if DFL voters had not crossed over in the primary, Aplikowski might have won both the primary and [shudder] the final; instead of Jim.

Abeler closely [including multiple ballots] barely lost a GOP endorsement, but the popular vote in the GOP primary was the opposite. Strongly so. That also is undeniable.

While it is guessing, one rational view is that DFL crossover together with the outrageous meddling of Freedom Club [something that only landed after the GOP endorsement contest, not before] sunk Aplikowski.

That has implications for November, because with presumed Presidential uncertainty in November balloting there will likely be less to no DFL crossover [Bern Baby, Bern!].

As noted before, those people who instigated and/or fueled the Aplikowski fires owe him a follow-up fundraiser so that things do not appear that Andy was hung out to dry after the primary defeat. Especially so if they want Andy to run against Abeler yet again, in November. (Feed the beast or the beast retires.)

For myself: While favoring Roger Johnson generally on policy grounds, and Abeler highly in crossing over for the GOP primary, was an easy choice. Abeler representing the district will differ substantially from what one might guess Aplikowski representing it would be.

BOTTOM LINE: One hopes Abeler, being bright, weighs the numbers and events similarly to above analysis. I.e., that he appreciates the potential benefits he attained via crossover during his primary, and that he remembers Freedom Club and its insider provocateurs, if/when it is payback time.

Ditto Mr. WoofWoof, of the Taxpayer League and his henchperson John K.

However, Jim does not seem to be a person who'd be highly motivated by payback thoughts. More likely he has a "move on from the election to the duty to govern" temperment, i.e., with a far more open mind than too many of his locked-mind ideologue GOP legislative colleagues; especially the ideological ignoramus legislative twit faction wanting the heavy boot of government mandate to stand heavily in conquest of family liberty of choice and in opposition to medical science's sensible progress.

Bless them, those idelogues Abeler will have to mix with.

NOW THAT THE SPECIAL ELECTION IS HISTORY, REGULAR CRABGRASS POSTING SHALL RESUME. THEMES CARRIED VIA SIDEBAR UPDATES MAY BE GIVEN POSTING ATTENTION. ALL FOR NOW.

__________UPDATE____________
A few unclear things in the post were edited for clarity, and a few (including a sentence fragment) were allowed to stand where confusion was absent. Wanting to move on from that which is yesterday's news is cause to not edit any further than was done for clarity in a place or two.

The upshot of crossover being important to the Abeler primary margin's size is qualitatively certain, whether any quantitative argument detail above is accepted or rejected as too conjectural.

Moving on . . .

No comments: