Thursday, April 30, 2026

AJ publishes, "Pakistan opens up road trade routes into Iran amid Hormuz blockade."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/30/pakistan-opens-up-road-trade-routes-into-iran-amid-hormuz-blockade 

That lessens Trump's leverage against Iran, and puts Pakistan a step ahead of India, where India could use Iranian oil, but has no land route for trade. 

Also, Trump can easily bomb critical points along land routes with little chance of loss. If he does not, what does it say about his "no nukes" theme, absent maximum pressure? Does it say Arab oil being constrained helps his cronies cooking and selling Venezuelan oil? The longer Arab oil cannot navigate Hormuz, the higher the price Trump cronies can extort, and maximize profits.

What will Trump do? What are his sincere aims? What will the Saudis expect/demand?

And, does this make Pakistan something beyond a neutral mediator? There are other nations which might be stronger in mediation than an Iran trading partner. What would India prefer, open straits, or overland road trade between Pakistan and Iran? Remember, Iran has its Caspian trade with Russia. The geopolitical dimensions are what they are.

UPDATE: Russia and Iran are both oil exporters, so their trade would involve other stuff. And, is Ukraine positioned geographically and militarily to affect Russia's Caspian ports? That adds a dimension.

Why the Iranians refuse to give up Uranium enrichment seems an indicator they either want the bomb, or they want to keep it a threat against the Israelis and Arabs. Also, Iran can decide to build intercontinental missiles capable of reaching much of the North American continent, making the bomb threat actually touch the US long term. That notion can be expected to cement Trump's will to continue insistence on no bomb, no enrichment, no continued Iranian possession of highly enriched but short of bomb grade Uranium.

The Iranians have no real excuse for enrichment beyond reactor grade, other than for political leverage, and as the second theocracy-nation besides Israel, what does that have to do with wanting the bomb or at least the threat of a bomb? Israel has Dimona, and Iran has proven its rockets can reach there and possibly cause nuclear contamination, whereas such an outcome might goose the Israelis into nuking Iran.

Neither theocracy/nation has the stability to have the bomb, Kennedy knew that about Israel, and got shot dead months after pressuring the question.

FURTHER: There is the Sunni - Shia tension across the Persian Gulf, which also matters.  If Iran goes nuclear militarily, what will Saudi Arabia do? The bulk of the rest of the world? They basically want energy prices favorable to their prosperity.