Friday, October 16, 2020

WaPo likely has it right about the early voting split between the two Tweedle parties, but it is not "enthusiasm" at work, it is old fashioned "lesser evil" at play, where it is the "greater evil" that is propelling Dems to vote at record levels.

 Greater evil politics is the motivational propellant envisioned by Crabgrass which serves to explain the early voting trend. Nonetheless, WaPo has it wrong, headline to end, saying:

Across the country, Democratic enthusiasm is propelling an enormous wave of early voting

 Anybody enthusiastic about Joe Biden who is not Bloomberg or some other wealthy buyer of politicians has to have his/her head examined.

Yes, I voted lesser evil. This time. Again as often. (Last cycle I declined to vote for any evil, neither Hillary nor Trump, and who knows, the Clintons may be a greater measure of evil than the Trumps - it's too close to call.)

But Joe. He stinks.

Trump, he's clearly worse and has proven that time and again over his four years, so far. Bad judges. Bad VP. Bad appointees. Bad family. 

Just Trump. Bad to the Bone. Killing people during pandemic times.

So, Joe? If he or anyone else says he'll win because of "enthusiasm" we progressives in a single voice should call bullshit on that notion. 

WaPo, owned by Bezos, may be enthusiastic that Joe will keep Amazon largely free of state sales taxes the brick and mortar outlets have to pay.

But Biden? Harris? Mediocrity and ambition is not a good blend.

 __________UPDATE_________

AP coverage, via Seattle PI headlining gets the headline clearer,

Avalanche of early votes is transforming the 2020 election

 However, same judgmental terminology in alleged news reporting, not presented as the editorializing it is, with an opening paragraph:

More than 17 million Americans have already cast ballots in the 2020 election, a record-shattering avalanche of early votes driven both by Democratic enthusiasm and a pandemic that has transformed the way the nation votes.

Again, uncalled for - not evidence but a questionable inference from evidence - use of the word "enthusiasm."

No point repeating at length that Joe is Joe and enthusiasm is enthusiasm while the overlap need not be large and likely is not. So, moving on, this quote, mid-item:

So far the turnout has been lopsided, with Democrats outvoting Republicans by a 2-1 ratio in the 42 states included in The Associated Press count. Republicans have been bracing themselves for this early Democratic advantage for months, as they've watched President Donald Trump rail against mail-in ballots and raise unfounded worries about fraud. Polling, and now early voting, suggest the rhetoric has turned his party's rank and file away from a method of voting that, traditionally, they dominated in the weeks before Election Day.

That gives Democrats a tactical advantage in the final stretch of the campaign. In many critical battleground states, Democrats have “banked” a chunk of their voters and can turn their time and money toward harder-to-find infrequent voters.

But it does not necessarily mean Democrats will lead in votes by the time ballots are counted. Both parties anticipate a swell of Republican votes on Election Day that could, in a matter of hours, dramatically shift the dynamic.

“The Republican numbers are going to pick up,” said John Couvillon, a GOP pollster who is tracking early voting. “The question is at what velocity, and when?”

Couvillon said Democrats can't rest on their voting lead, but Republicans are themselves making a big gamble. A number of factors, from rising virus infections to the weather, can impact in-person turnout on Election Day. “If you're putting all your faith into one day of voting, that's really high risk,” Couvillon said.

That’s why, despite Trump’s rhetoric, his campaign and party are encouraging their own voters to cast ballots by mail or early and in-person. The campaign, which has been sending volunteers and staffers into the field for months despite the pandemic, touts a swell in voter registration in key swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania — a sharp reversal from the usual pattern as a presidential election looms.

Inference is at play whether it is "enthusiasm" as Mainstream Media wants to say, or anti-Trump animus as Crabgrass says, but the fact is Dem voters are early birds.

Turnout indications are favorable to Dems because of the ratio between the early voters for each party, but election day is not nearly rendered moot, and Trump haters who are also Dem inner party sorts need to not become complacent, as was the case with pre-election polling, 2016.

In closing, Bernie would have won easily in 2016 had he not been torpedoed by the likes of Obama and Tom Perez, et al., and it would be no context contest, not even close, if Bernie had not been done in by the Clyburn and fringe candidate shift before the South Carolina and deep south primary voting, 2020.

Harris had dropped out before the fringe candidate bailout (can you say Amy, can you say Pete). She had that little wind in her sails. Nobody liked her enough to get her above single digits, and now, VP nominee. Strange happenings.

Progressives got jobbed, big time, and each and every one would be justified to refuse the lesser evil square dance, this time. Trump, however, is such a peice of work that progressives are put into the grin-and-bear-it posture. AGAIN.

The Dem donor class and inner party donor-slaves have succeeded where they failed in 2016. Long term repercussions can be debated. Yet as Keynes famously said, "In the long term we're all dead anyway."

Bless Joe. Bless Kamala. Just never say "enthusiastic" about either, if you are looking at progressive sentiment. 

Choice? MIA this time. It's hatefully narrow, A disaster vs GOP-lite.

Yes, I voted GOP-lite. And still have self-doubt for having done so.

AOC would make a hell of a great President; not Harris. In a gender based pairing. 2024, let us hope there is an actual, real, choice. A progressive vs. a non-progressive, let the chips fall as they may with the MSM propagandists doing their all yet again, for GOP-lite. 

A giant populous may wake up, despite all the tons of cash spent to forestall such a happening. May Michael Bloomberg choke to death on his fucking money!

May FOX together with MSNBC perish. Soon. May alternate internet outlets lessen MSM power, and may enlightenment prevail. 

Bet against it, sanity says so. But we can HOPE. For CHANGE. Beyond sloganeering.

_________FURTHER UPDATE_________

The Seattle PI item continues:

Republicans argue that these signs of enthusiasm are meaningless — Democratic early voters are people who would have voted anyway, they say. But an AP analysis of the early vote shows 8% of early voters had never cast a ballot before, and 13.8% had voted in half or fewer of previous elections for which they were eligible.

The data also show voters embracing mail voting, which health officials say is the safest way to avoid coronavirus infection while voting. Of the early voters, 82% cast ballots through the mail and 18% in person. Black voters cast 10% of the ballots cast, about the same as their share of the national electorate, according to the AP analysis of data from L2, a political data firm. That's a sign that those voters, who have been less likely to vote by mail than white people and Latinos, have warmed to the method.

Mail ballots so far have skewed toward older voters, with half coming from voters over age 64. Traditionally, younger and minority voters send their mail ballots in closer to Election Day or vote in person.

The mail ballots already returned in several states dwarf the entire total in prior elections. In Wisconsin, more than five times as many mail ballots have been cast compared with the entire number in 2016. North Carolina has seen nearly triple the number so far.

In-person early voting began this week in several major states and also broke records, particularly in crowded, Democratic-leaning metropolitan areas. In Texas, Houston's Harris County saw a record 125,000 ballots cast. In Georgia, hours-long lines threaded from election offices through much of the state's urban areas.

Voter turnout seems to have captured the news; voter suppression effort being real, but undermined by the will of many to vote against the greater evil. Turnout will matter.