Brian Olson wrote:
[E]ven though typically ridership numbers go down in the summer due to vacation schedules, it seems as though the number of passengers on our Ramsey Star Express is continually rising. There was obviously a net difference in how much we are collecting in fares because we reduced the fee to $2.75 from $4.50 but when someone can drive to Anoka or Coon Rapids and get on a bus to Mpls for $2.75 it seemed as though we needed to stay competitive. The good news is that we are bringing in more riders into our Town Center and ridership continues to increase (ie. June's Average daily trips was 260 and total trips was 5485). The bad news is that with the gas prices continuing to increase, we also continue to pay more for the service but the rising gas prices continue to attract more transit riders.
However, the level of public enthusiasm is minimal, and the cost far in excess of income generated from fares, again Brian Olson writing:
The last invoices that were received for the bus are as follows:
February 2008 (last month with rate of $4.50 per trip per passenger)
Cost of service - $38,878 (gas surcharge at $3.40 per gallon)
Fare reimbursement - $9,933
Net bill - $28,945
Federal responsibility (80%) - $23,156
City responsibility (20%) - $5,789
# of passenger trips - 2,795 per month
Average daily trips - 133
[passengers per trip - 21]
[dollar cost per rider-trip: $13.91]
April 2008
Cost of service - $41,536 (gas surcharge at $4.04 per gallon)
Fare reimbursement - $9,529
Net bill - $32,007
Federal responsibility (80%) - $25,606
City responsibility (20%) - $6,401
# of passenger trips - 4,249
Average daily trips - 193
[passengers per trip - 22]
dollar cost per rider-trip: $9.77]
May 2008
Cost of service - $40,999 (gas surcharge at $4.42 per gallon)
Fare reimbursement - $9,881
Net bill - $31,118
Federal responsibility (80%) - $24,894
City responsibility (20%) - $6,224
# of passenger trips - 4,516
Average daily trip - 226
[passengers per trip - 20]
[dollar cost per passenger-trip: $9.08]
Ridership upward trending: Feb to Apr = 1454 more passenger trips.
Apr to May = 267 more passenger trips.
May to Jun = 969 more.
That suggests the big jump was from the fare rate change, but with a clear incremental upward sloping trend in ridership-popularity, so far.
Dehen's suggestion, again, make it free and see how many people ride it, would be an interesting experiment. Then people from Anoka and Coon Rapids would be attracted to switch.
Here's one point of analysis. Elk River still has its fare at $4.50 per ride. That means the effect of ridership increasing is both people not going to Anoka/Coon Rapids over a price differential that now has been removed, and people coming from Elk River, because of a price differential now in place. In the winter, with the covered ramp parking, Ramsey should be even more attractive in terms of not having to scrape ice and snow. That would be incentive for Anoka/Coon Rapids people to use Ramsey. The ramp seems to have more than sufficient vacant parking capacity for the numbers Brian provided, on the lower floors without having to park in open area on top. Elk River publishes its higher fare structure, here:
Route
The Northstar Commuter Coach stops at park-and-ride lots in Elk River and Coon Rapids (at the Riverdale shopping development) and travels to/from the 5th Street Transit Station in downtown Minneapolis during peak hours.
Service
Monday through Friday (major holidays excluded)
* Eight trips leaving for Minneapolis between 5:30 a.m. and 8:00 a.m.
* Eight trips from Minneapolis between 3:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m.
Fares
The Northstar Commuter Coach honors regional farecards such as Metro Transit passes and coupons. Fares are $4.50 each-way between Minneapolis and Elk River and $2.75 each-way between Minneapolis and Coon Rapids / Riverdale.
With such dismal popularity, and such a high tax money subsidy [federal money IS tax money too], it seems using John Dehen's idea, make it free and see how many use it, is worth a trial. With it generating fare income of only ten thousand a month, at either fare level, it would not be that costly to try; and it might be the proof that the entire NorthStar hype is just that, hype and not substance. An idea flogged for years by the politicians, but proving to not be anything much of the public wants.
And why should non-users pay such a fortune, when the user pool is proving to be so minuscule for the bus service? The argument can be made, a train will be more convenient and hence more utilized. Still, with approximately 20 working days [bus service days] per month, the maximum usage so far (June ridership) is 5485/20 = 274 people per day. It is unclear to me whether the totals are one-way trips, (so that it would be 137 riders per work day, round trip), if that's the case. But be generous - say 300 fewer autos in the traffic on Highway 10, this way, per rush hour commute - That's making little difference, or seems so.
In comparison to a traffic count, in rush-hour's main direction morning or evening, say on the stretch of Highway 10 between Armstrong Blvd. and Hanson Blvd. --- how much less of a snarl would it be if even another 300 - 400 autos were removed?
Without actual traffic count numbers we can only guess, and my guess is it's a drop in the bucket.
Finally, I don't have an image of the Ramsey Star Express to post, but I expect it is a bus similar to the posted picture of the Northstar Commuter Coach, which looks as if it would be very uncrowded with only twenty to twenty-five passengers each trip.
BOTTOM LINE: I concede it is probably too early in the experiment to tell. However the appearance is: It is more Town Center style of failure - Field of Dreams failure - Build it and they will come. In the movie the ballplayers showed up, that is the difference. In the real world the cornfield's been eliminated, but now it's mainly an open weedpatch called "Town Center" instead. And even with the high pump prices holding for now, this bus service is not taking massive numbers of autos off the road and out of rush hour traffic.
It is not, so far, happening as we've been led by the politicians to expect. It is, so far, a failure.
The people pushing this idea should try at each and every stop, to make the bus free each way. What total baseline ridership would care to use it at no fare per trip?
Running a fare-free service is an experiment I doubt they will try. I expect they are afraid of what that baseline truth would turn out to be -- An unpopular expression suggesting Danny's Train is a bad joke.
And Anoka mayor Bjorn Skogquist is running against Trainman Dan, so he might be voted off the county board before his unproductive chickens come home to roost.
Go Bjorn! Get those votes.
_____UPDATE________
I should not be too dismissive. It is still very early in the experiment. A unified transit system is the goal, a good goal, but it is being built piecemeal. That is because of a disinclination to push things, and tax more. My belief is that transit would be good, and there's no way to do it but as quickly as feasible. But it is a self-feeding, self-defeating thing to make NorthStar the next piece of the grid. That is the part I fault as ill-thought-out. First, it gets you downtown with no real connection service other than Hiawatha. If you need to go elsewhere than downtown or along Hiawatha, good luck. You will drive instead, as when you need an auto during the day or if your job cannot assure your leaving everyday, before rush hour subsides and the service is unavailable. That's the downside one way. The other is that it might appear a progressive incentive once the real estate market swings back to hot, when/if that happens, to further overbuild in this growing Highway 10 corridor. And with that, and little real impact on road traffic, things will only get worse without a Highway 10 buildup reaching all the way to Elk River. That would be a cost on top of the NorthStar cost, and it is speculative when the road might be upgraded. And talk of that mythical bridge, that will stretch us between a rush-hour parking lot called Highway 10 and another one called Interstate 94, suggests to me the bridge might have more to promise than to deliver. I remain a skeptic over that. If it ever happens, how will it make things better?