photo: a clue - it largely speaks for itself - more at the end of the post
And it is a lengthy and glum post. First, Census Bureau has information in a spreadsheet, and a pdf document - no hypertext for easy excerpting.
No kidding. Check the links. I will try -- everything but the header from the pdf pastes into a notepad window, so here is the glum story, excerpted only somewhat, pretty much their entire story, from what our trusted government tells us today, Aug. 16, 2007:
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE THURSDAY, AUGUST 16, 2007 AT 8:30 A.M. EDT
CB07-116
Erica Filipek or Steven Berman
Manufacturing and Construction Division
(301) 763-5160
NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN JULY 2007
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for July 2007:
BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,373,000.
This is 2.8 percent (±1.3%) below the revised June rate of 1,413,000 and is 22.6 percent (±1.3%) below the revised July 2006 estimate of 1,774,000.
Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 1,003,000; this is 1.6 percent (±1.2%) below the June figure of 1,019,000.
Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 314,000 in July.
HOUSING STARTS
Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,381,000. This is 6.1 percent (±7.0%)* below the revised June estimate of 1,470,000 and is 20.9 percent (±6.1%) below the revised July 2006 rate of 1,746,000.
Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 1,070,000; this is 7.3 percent (±6.7%) below the June figure of 1,154,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 275,000.
HOUSING COMPLETIONS
Privately-owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,512,000. This is 0.1 percent (±9.5%)* below the revised June estimate of 1,513,000 and is 22.2 percent (±7.6%) below the revised July 2006 rate of 1,944,000.
Single-family housing completions in July were at a rate of 1,203,000; this is 4.0 percent (±9.3%)* below the June figure of 1,253,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 280,000.
New Residential Construction data for August 2007 will be released on Wedneday, September 19, 2007, at 8:30 A.M. EDT.
EXPLANATORY NOTES
[* * * go onsite to read the fine print.]
photo: Bloomberg - Troubled Traders at NYSE
Glum? An understatement. 2006 was not a boom time, and those 2007 vs. 2006 numbers are sobering. Now the market. Business Week, first:
Market Snapshot August 16, 2007, 12:33PM EST text size: TT
Stocks Slide on Credit Fears
The gloom and doom won't stop on Wall Street as more bad news arrives from mortgage lenders at the center of the widening credit crisis
by Ben Steverman
Bad news from Countrywide Financial (CFC) kept investors in a selling mood Thursday as worries worsened about credit markets, mortgage lenders, and even the broader economy.
On Thursday afternoon, the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 218.91 points, or 1.7%, to 12,642.56. The 30 stock average is now down 10% from its closing high of 14,000.41 on July 19.
The broader S&P 500 fell 24.7 points, or 1.76%, to 1,382.00. The index has dropped 11% from its closing high of 1,553.08 on July 19, and is down 3% for the year.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index lost 51.17 points, or 2.08%, to 2,407.66 -- and it's also down 11% from its closing high of 2,720.04 on July 19.
The CBoE's volatility, or VIX, equity index -- a measure of market fear -- hit a new high Thursday of 35.29 as stocks kept falling.
The Federal Reserve stepped in again Thursday, with the New York Fed injecting another $12 billion in reserves with overnight repurchase agreement, or "repo", on top of the $5 billionn 14-day repo put in place earlier to help ease the liquidity crunch. On Wednesday, the New York Fed used a repo to add $7 billion to financial institutions. In the last week, central banks in the U.S. and Europe have injected money into the markets to help stabilize the credit markets.
However, the Fed's rescue is making investors nervous that more financial and lending companies are in danger. "The Fed pumping money into the system is positive, but the more money they pump in, the more the fear factor increases," explains Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners in New York. "People think there are still a lot of problems out there."
Problems? You want problems? Try this, as Business Week continues:
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told the Wall Street Journal he believes the turmoil on financial markets "will extract a penalty" on U.S. economic growth, but "the economy and the markets are strong enough to absorb the losses" without creating a recession.
Other market watchers wondered when the selling will turn to buying. "The market is obviously in a heightened state of paranoia and if we see the full fledged selling panic come in, you may have to buy simply based on the fact we are probably a bit oversold," wrote Jay Collins of DT Trading in Chicago in a note.
In Europe, stock indexes finished with sharp losses on Thursday as credit woes spread. In London, the FTSE 100 index plunged 4.10% to 5,858.9. Germany's DAX index dropped 2.36% to 7,270.07. In Paris, the CAC 40 index lost 3.26% to 5,265.47.
Asian markets also moved sharply lower. In Japan, the Nikkei index dropped 1.99% to 16,148.49. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index fell 3.29% to 20,672.39. The Shanghai composite index slid 2.14% to 4,765.45.
Treasuries moved higher Thursday as investors seek a safe haven amid falling equity markets around the world.
Hiding in the treasury bond market is like the 1950's grade school exercises - duck and cover - in case the Russians nuke us, crawl under your desk and cover your head against falling fixtures, never mind the radiation will have your growing a tail and scales before you croak from burns all over your body and inside out, as if microwaved.
Bloomberg adds:
U.S. Stocks Tumble on Credit Concern; Asia, Europe Markets Drop
By Lynn Thomasson
Enlarge Image
Traders at the NYSE today
Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The global credit crisis shook equity markets around the world, sending benchmark indexes in the U.S., Europe and Asia to the lowest levels in five months.
The main measure of U.S. stock volatility climbed to the highest since October 2002 as turmoil in the home-loan market forced mortgage lenders Countrywide Financial Corp. to tap an $11.5 billion bank credit line and First Magnus Financial Corp. to stop funding new loans. Metals, energy and industrial companies including General Electric Co. and United Technology Corp. led the declines on concern economic growth will falter.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 16.26, or 1.2 percent, to 1,390.44 at 1:54 p.m. in New York, leaving it down 10.5 percent from its record July 19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 184.85, or 1.4 percent, to 12,676.62. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 37.18, or 1.5 percent, to 2,421.65.
``This is a classic case of fear trumping fundamentals,'' said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International Investments Advisers LLC in Newark, New Jersey, a unit of Prudential Financial Inc., which oversees $648 billion. ``All markets are being hit by the same brush.''
Developing nations led the tumble, with the MSCI Emerging Market Index dropping 6.6 percent, its biggest decline since 1997. Brazil's Bovespa index fell 11.3 percent in dollar terms, the top decliner among 89 indices tracked by Bloomberg, followed by Turkey's ISE National 100 Index, which lost 11.2 percent.
Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 3.6 percent, while Asian stocks posted their biggest two-day decline in a year as the Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index retreated 2.3 percent.
The yen advanced the most against the dollar since 1998 as investors sold riskier assets funded by loans in Japan.
U.S. stocks fell to their lows of the day after the Federal Reserve said manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly stalled in August and lender First Magnus said the secondary mortgage market has collapsed.Volatility Surge
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the VIX, climbed 15 percent to 35.28. Higher readings in the gauge, derived from prices paid for S&P 500 options, indicate traders expect bigger share-price swings in the next 30 days.
Countrywide posted its steepest drop since the 1987 stock- market crash for a second day in a row, losing $4.20, or 20 percent, to $17.09, a four-year low. David Sambol, the lender's president and chief operating officer, said liquidity in the mortgage industry has ``become constrained.'' Countrywide said today it drew down an $11.5 billion bank credit line as the global credit crunch curbed access to short-term financing from debt markets.
Moody's Investors Service cut its rating on the company's debt three levels to Baa3, the lowest investment-grade level, from A3.Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs, the world's most profitable securities firm and second-largest hedge-fund manager, decreased $1.55 to $163.35.
The S&P 500 last fell at least 10 percent from a high in the period ended March 11, 2003, or 1,619 calendar days ago. That's the longest streak without a correction since the 2,572-day stretch ended October 27, 1997, according to data compiled by Birinyi Associates Inc. and Bloomberg News.
``The equity market is just being slow in understanding what has already happened in the credit markets,'' said Daniel Broby, chief investment officer at Renaissance Investment Management in London, where he helps manage $4 billion. ``This market is one where you'll find it very difficult to call the exact magnitude of when the correction is over.''ResCap Downgrade
General Motors Corp., the biggest U.S. automaker, lost $1.78 to $29.76. Residential Capital LLC, the Minneapolis-based mortgage unit of GMAC LLC also known as ResCap, was downgraded to high-yield, high-risk status. Its ratings were cut two levels to BB+ by Fitch and one step to Ba1 by Moody's. GM owns 49 percent of GMAC.
Amgen Inc. retreated $1.59 to $49. The world's largest biotechnology company said it will slash jobs for the first time in its 27-year history, close plants and cut capital spending in response to declining sales of its top-selling drug, the anemia treatment Aranesp.
Home Depot Inc., the largest home-improvement retailer, declined $1.07 to $32.29 after a government report showed no sign that the housing industry is recovering from an 18-month recession. The greater-than-forecast 6.1 percent decrease in housing starts to an annual rate of 1.381 million followed a 1.47 million pace in June, the Commerce Department said. Building permits also fell to a 10-year low.
Raw-material producers fell the most among 10 industry groups in the S&P 500, dropping 3.3 percent on mounting concern that losses in global credit markets will erode economic growth and demand for raw materials.
Alcoa Inc., the world's second-largest aluminum producer, decreased $2.48 to $31.22. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the second-biggest copper producer, fell $7.74 to $70.13. Nucor Corp., the second-largest U.S.-based steel company, declined $2.61 to $43.90.
Exxon Mobil Corp., the world's largest publicly traded oil company, lost $2.29 to $79.82. Chevron Corp., the second-biggest U.S. oil company, declined $1.75 to $79.01. Crude oil fell for the first time in four days in New York on concern falling stock prices may cause economic expansion to slow, reducing fuel demand.Hedge-Fund Warning
Credit losses may cause a major hedge fund to collapse, Chris Mahoney, Moody's vice chairman, said on a conference call today. Forced selling by a large fund would ``disrupt markets'' as the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management LP threatened to do in 1998, he said.
Goldman last night blamed its $3 billion in losses from hedge funds on too many managers of quantitative funds making the same trades. So-called quant funds use computer models to make their investment decisions. Some $4.2 trillion of stock market value has been wiped out globally since July 19, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. To contact the reporter on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: August 16, 2007 13:55 EDT
Bloomberg reports more, have a look. CNNMoney.com, focusing on builders, reports:
Woes deepen for home builders
Housing starts unexpectedly rise in June, but applications for new projects slump to lowest level in 10 years; outlook grows more bleak.
By Grace Wong, CNNMoney.com staff writer
July 18 2007: 11:04 AM EDT
LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- The outlook for the housing sector has grown bleaker after a key measure of builder confidence fell to its lowest level in 10 years, according to a government report released Wednesday.
Building permit activity, considered a gauge of builder confidence, sank to a 1.41 million pace last month from a 1.52 million rate in May, according to the Census Bureau. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected a decline to 1.49 million.
Home builders broke ground on new projects at a higher than expected rate in June. Housing starts rose unexpectedly to an annual rate of 1.47 million from a revised 1.43 million in May, according to the government report.
While housing starts increased, they tend to be volatile and vary depending on weather conditions across the country. Permits, on the other hand, generally are less influenced by weather and are considered an indicator of future housing activity.
Weakness in the housing sector has dragged on economic growth and home sales are expected to remain sluggish for some time, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Wednesday.
"Declines in residential construction will likely continue to weigh on economic growth over coming quarters, although the magnitude of the drag on growth should diminish over time," he said in prepared testimony.
The housing slump has dragged on as home builders have battled a decline in housing sales and prices while dealing with a glut of supply. On Tuesday, the National Association of Home Builders, a trade group, said its home builder sentiment index fell in July to its lowest level since 1991.
"The optimism of builders couldn't be any worse," said Pat McPherron, economist at Moody's Economy.com. "There's no demand, there's nothing in the pipeline."
Troubles in the subprime sector have also led to "rising foreclosures, defaults, and homeowners selling their homes to avoid default," which has made matters even worse for builders, Global Insight economist Patrick Newport wrote in a note.
Some say a slowdown in building permit activity could provide a longer-term benefit for the battered housing market by helping to choke off supply. An oversupply of homes on the market has depressed home prices, and that weakness in pricing is believed to be keeping some potential buyers on the sidelines.
But most economists agree there will be more pain before the market rebounds. The National Association of Realtors, an industry group, warned last week that it could take longer than previously forecast for the housing market to find a bottom. The group said it doesn't expect home prices to recover until the second quarter of next year.
The ongoing problems in the sector have weighed on the results of home builders. Pulte Homes said on Tuesday it expects to post a hefty loss for the second quarter due to weak consumer demand.
Lennar, KB Home, D.R. Horton and Ryland Group have all either reported or warned of unexpected losses in recent weeks.
In addition builder Centex has posted an operating loss in its two latest quarters, while Hovnanian Enterprises has had three quarters of losses.
And there is a bit more there, but the excerpt is extensive. In an interview about a month ago, Bob Toll, of Toll Bros., a high-end large-scale builder, was reasonably upbeat on there being a recovery, but not seeing it soon:
I don't see the market getting better until, at the earliest, April of 2008. But I do think that when a recovery occurs, it will be much quicker than it has in the past because of pent-up demand. You've got decent job growth, low unemployment, low interest rates, great corporate earnings reports and tons of money being created and sloshing around the world.
So, back to the chart at the beginning, and this one, by region. Both are from here.
It is true that one chart is worth a thousand crabgrass posts; so check that site. [And see the NAHB site for tabulated data.] From the "Housing Bubble" homepage, it is or seems oriented to real estate forecasting or investment interests, but it is somebody, one individual putting up a site, who does not give tables he gives charts. And that fall-off to the right of the thing, the chart I led the posting with, where today and tomorrow take their place against history on the NAHB-based charts might fit with what Toll says above, and if so, it does not say anything encouraging to anyone facing a move and a home sale; a distress situation with a foreclosure pending and a hope of recouping some equity; and Toll is talking one end of the market where the opening Census Bureau numbers suggest single family starts and permits now have recaptured a lead. In Ramsey, over the last few years, the shared-wall segment has been overbuilt - and the chickens are coming home to roost. It was bad thinking then, it is worse now when the effect has caught up with the cause.
In the 2008 comprehensive plan, have we learned a lesson, or are the landholders still driving the process; the rese of us be damned? The Kurak cornfield cash-out was done - from or at least with a seat the council table - ditto for the gun club sewer pipe but there at least the sepculator money went into the thing going into the ground more than at Town Center. However, in planning growth, in thinking of the 2008 Comprehensive Plan and who we want to be -- why let the crabgrass prosper?
We have better ways to run the town, than to do that. Met Council can lead, follow, or stand aside - but if it is more shared-wall crabgrass mistake-making -- stand aside seems the better thing for now.
Natalie Steffen
"I see our town center giving us an identity and the best of both worlds - an urban atmosphere in an outer ring suburb. We'll be able to work, go to restaurants, shop and see movies - and eventually the commuter rail will connect us to the rest of the world."
- Metropolitan Council Member Natalie Steffen