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Wednesday, August 10, 2011

What do the developers say about Twin Cities metro prospects? Reading for us all. For Darren. For the mayor. For other gang-of-four "mayor facilitators" hooked on local Ramsey "hopium."

http://urbanland.uli.org/~/media/Files/PDFs/2011/April/RedevelopmentInTC.ashx



Click a thumbnail to read - item pages 2 and 3, above. The thing is fourteen pages long. I highlight the early truths - the ones ignored by the hopium addicts who expect pigs to fly.

_________UPDATE________
Same website, and if "Echo Boomers" are so promising a flock of customers to the landlord class, that means that Mr. Flaherty and Mr. Collins should be more than overjoyed to put large amounts of their own money at risk long-term in such an attractive possibility as providing attractive rental housing, in Ramsey, to all of these attractive young eager-renting affluent people.

http://urbanland.uli.org/Articles/2011/June/KirkEcho

___________FURTHER UPDATE___________
A caveat: The Urban Land Institute item referenced above does say that the rental market now is the one showing healthy demand, as good news from a supplier's - landlord's perspective, today.

Condos, town-home, and standard non-attached single family homes, for now, are in the doldrums. That seems true. And it seems a commonly held view. A self-fulfilling prophecy.

However, here, in a different online item then the above-noted thing, ULI says the dream lives on, i.e., the Echo Boomers [aka "Generation Y"] want to own-invest, as a preference long-term, over renting.

How else can that be read other than any strong rental demand today is short-term, whereas rental construction now would increase rental supply, short- and long-term.

If there is in this a suggestion that price and standards for tenancy conduct may be relaxed a few short years from now, by landlords wanting high occupancy vs high vacancy, what can we view as the long-term prospects of today's "luxuriant" rental offerings?

If the "luxury" is in the fixtures and amenities, the heated salt-water pools and exercise spa accouterments, and not in any exceptional structural or architectural quality and integrity, it's selling sizzle and not the steak. Which only cuts it short-term. While the risks extend longer.

What effects can be reasonably anticipated, from a likely shift from presently unusually hign rental demand, to something more traditional after a multi-year delayed housing market rebound where down-payment money will again be advanced in anticipation of equity growth in home ownership? What implications are there, then, for a community that short-sightedly makes a mega-rental thing a keystone part of its growth planning dreams and schemes?

Good future? Bad? Worrisome? Reassuring? You decide.