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Thursday, April 05, 2007

The seriousness of the housing slump.

I ran last election, Ramsey Ward 1, against incumbent David Elvig, who was reelected. At the one televised League of Women Voters session, I characterized Town Center as a failure and argued that town home buyers using the shared-wall housing market as a buy-in springboard to other housing options would be the ones taking gas because they would be selling against builders cutting prices to recapture working capital and to cut losses if the market worsens.

Elvig argued Town Center was "on schedule" and that other large real estate projects did not bloom overnight [despite his earlier being a part of quite optimistic projections since proven wrong, such as James Norman quoted by Ms. Sakry of Anoka County Union saying we'd all be shopping at Town Center, Christmas 2004]. I believe Elvig presently is aware of development postponements west of the proposed Ramsey Crossings shopping area.

Subsequent to the election, in the second half of November 2007, days before he died, Bruce Nedegaard was served with involuntary bankruptcy papers and he was the master builder money man for Ramsey Town Center, LLC.

The even more unfortunate part of my argument proving true, is shown by actual recent shared-wall purchasers facing possible negative equity situations (as well as some instances of ARM mortgage rates and monthly payments going up as interest rates rise), with evidence via representative example published now on the Parkside Village [Town Center 9th Addition] website showing price slashing being done now for units completed in 2006 by sometimes as much as 30%; see, here, here and here, for descriptions and links, location, and pricing, respectively.

The situation is real. It is serious and sobering. The bubble has burst. Timing of a rebound is uncertain. The builder of Parkside Village cannot be faulted at all for yielding rationally to market realities. He gambled, and is merely cutting losses or locking in lesser profit than was gambled on. He did his gamble honestly, without any special voice or special treatment from the council table.

If you are a recent shared-wall homebuyer in the situation of facing the over-built market in Ramsey and facing the price slashing occuring around you to where you could not now sell for what you've paid, I urge you to contact ALL members of the Ramsey City Council from Mr. Elvig and the mayor on down the line to discuss your plight - contact info is online here. In particular, you should inquire about the platted but as yet unbuilt situation west of Ramsey Crossings; and how that may impact you and whether anyone on council can or will do anything to alleviate the overbuilding crunch.

UPDATE
City Council meeting minutes, Tuesday, June 28, 2005, at p.16-17, indicate a unanimous council approval of 90 units for Ramsey Town Center Addition No. 9, see, also; full agenda for that meeting, p.277; for a site plan. The Chazen - Parkside Village webpage listed a dozen discounted properties - up to 1/3 off. If it is Developer last stock being remaindered out in a down market; this undercuts the likelihood of any benefit to a seller of one of 78 other purchased units who may have bought at full list price (or less of a discount). With these units authorized mid-2005 and built out in 2006, it lools like the developer is closing out inventory. Hence, any past purchaser who might need to sell a previously occupied "used" Parkside Village townhome into competition with their seller is in a real bind. Those that can "wait out the market," if feasible, possibly can avoid harm. Those pressed to a distress sale against their seller's discounting would likely suffer greatly.