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Monday, November 18, 2024

A prediction about Trump nominees - not argued, just guessing, and we'll see.

Rubio, Gaetz, the FOX news guy, and others are passed by the Senate. Tulsi Gabbard gets sidetracked. The Senate has to flex a bit, while intimidated Republicans want safety, and Gabbard being female is the easiest one to shoot at.

Of all Trump's nominees, by far, the most consequential will be JD, long term. First pick, but beyond that, Trump has one term to go since he's had the earlier one, he's almost as old as Pelosi, and he will adhere to law, grudgingly, and accept the Constitutional two term limit, with JD being heir apparent for the MAGA movement, which proved powerful enough to win. JD offers a likely long lifespan. With continuity, but JD doing it his way - same result but different in style than Trump.

The FOX news guy is the one to watch, not Gaetz, given that trove of superChristian tattoos, which is, to use the Walz term, really weird. Hegseth, simply stated, is weird. Super weird. A worry, but the Christian Nationalists are a MAGA mainstay, part of the winning coalition, and this guy will purge many officer-class people at DOD. Trump likes the purge intent while also liking giving the Chirstian Nationalists someone they can treasure, getting a trust boost that way, even when the bloc is solidly ensconced already.

Gaetz will pass Senate confirmation, that is the guess, because Trump really wants that one too, and he will make it a loyalty litmus test with the narrow Republican Senate majority, (and some possible Dem votes unlikely if Schumer holds tight, but possibly some with big DOD installations in their State who don't want any big pay back for dissing Trump's will). 

As likely wrong guesses as correct, so we'll see.

UPDATE: A bonus prediction. Trump among many pardons will pardon Hunter Biden on the gun charge and tax charge. The taxes have been settled. The gun charge drew much attention, with the question of "addiction" at the time Hunter purchased a firearm. It appears he never fired the handgun. And had it for only two weeks. At a time when he was stressed but somehow kept his head. It also appears Hunter has cleaned up his act and is remarried.   

May the couple show strength and solidarity.

If not a pardon, then after sentencing Trump commuting the sentence might happen.

If a sentence of no jail time but probation requirements to help keep Hunter straight, then Trump might let things stand. He gains nothing by pressing, he's won the election, he will be pardoning others, and the step would clear an item that gains him little to nothing if he ignores it. House members likely will conform to any wish Trump expresses on the question, with a test of deference being its own reward to Trump if testing House Republican "loyalty."

There is no payoff to Trump if not letting the question gain closure, and that pardon or clemency among others could lessen the reaction to the other individuals gaining official release from "weaponization" as claimed by no less than Trump, himself.

Trump might look overly petty and vindictive if he wants Hunter to suffer after Hunter has straightened out his life and needs nothing to psychologically push him toward a relapse. It just seems a win-win thing. Clear the table for other priorities.