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Sunday, May 12, 2024

Minnesota's Congressional District elections appear to favor party incumbancy. Then there is MN5. Not living there, I nonetheless care. [UPDATED]

 Living in the Sixth District, Emmer is so secure there that he's made Republican Party leadership by being so secure there. It's a circular thing.

In MN5 Ilhan Omar is the incumbent, again this cycle having Don Samuels sniping at the seat. Without giving it too much time since I have no vote there, a few words are merited.

Decisiveness. A great word.

Health care, important to every person on earth. Important in Minnesota.

Taking that focus, and disliking indirection, weasel words, examine campaign websites on - health care.

Don Samuels -

Advancing Healthcare as a Human Right

A vague thing. "Advance," as in a goal. Word search that thing = insurance. He likes it. Mentioning Obama and Klobochar, their approaches being fine to him.

Two things he likes, status and quo. And coattails. Grabbing two. Go status quo, but then move the needle - somewhat?

Ilhan Omar -

"Provide Healthcare Coverage for All

Ilhan will fight for Medicare for All, a single-payer healthcare system that guarantees quality care for every American."
A very specific goal - for ALL. And PROVIDE, not ADVANCE. Decisiveness.
 
Word search Omar's policy/issue presentation for the word "insurance." Not too great a fan, with her seeing a clear better way if only the status quo could be changed. 

BOTTOM LINE: Omar says single payer. Samuels does not. A distinction with a difference.
..........................................

From there readers should look at how each of the two define issues and answers, who is vague, who is precise, who says things are okay but can be better, who says things are problematic and need fixing - and which of those wordings seem more aggressive about moving off current dead center?

Omar is there trying. It's her job. Samuels was on the City Council, and right now is involved in a small nonprofit.

On his "meet Don" page, he does paragraph after paragraph, until, near the end, "Don is the CEO of Microgrants, an organization that targets small grants at individuals and organizations in communities." They've a website, there's a link, so have a look. Financials are given, but a breakout of Samuels' salary level cannot be seen from aggregate numbers. Presumably grants are not given to Samuels, nor to any entity in which he owns an interest, a point without a specific website disclosure or disclaimer. 
 
MicroGrants looks helpful to the community and lists partner organizations.
 
Just saying. the nature of politics suggests that Omar's people have a chance to scrutinize things, there is annual reporting to the AG, and if anything were problematic the opposition would note it. Samuels seems okay. The people backing Samuels likewise are expected to have done due diligence vetting. There already was the last election, with no personal questions about any money improprieties, either side.

And the primary, in CD5, is the election. The general is a coronation of the primary winner, the district being as solid single party Democratic as CD6 is Republican. Omar gained the CD5 DFL Convention endorsement. First ballot. Large margin.
 
UPDATE: MPR - first ballot MN5 convention:
 Samuels received 85 votes and Rep. Omar picked up 133 votes. Samuels vows to stay in the race, which will be a closely watched Democratic primary race across the country.

FURTHER: https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2024&id=MN05

From last cycle, same two candidates, https://spokesman-recorder.com/2022/08/03/who-is-funding-don-samuels-campaign-and-why/ 

That item seems to be published from within the CD5 community. Favoring Omar. Because she is a progressive. It speaks for itself. 

Presumably endorsements from within the DFL and the CD5 community will track what they were in the 2022 campaign. Support from outside the district ought to not differ much either. However, Samuels having made 2022 closer than expected might tip more funding, possibly alternate sources, his way.

Samuels offers some experience and if winning he seems he could handle the job. Crabgrass decisively favors Omar as progressive rather than middle of the road. Also with a belief she is brighter and more effective than Samuels would be.

But that balance this cycle is for people in the district to decide. 

FURTHER: Fox9 from back when Samuels first announded a 2024 candidacy.

FURTHER: Samuels has a Wikipedia page, and it says:

Samuels launched a DFL primary challenge for Minnesota's 5th congressional district against Ilhan Omar in March 2022. Samuels was endorsed by former Chief of the Minneapolis Police Department, Medaria Arradondo[21] and Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey.[22] [...] Samuels announced another primary challenge to Ilhan Omar in November 2023. The campaign's launch in November will lead to a longer campaign period than in 2022 when Samuels launched his challenge in March 2022 for an August 2022 election.[27][28] His campaign is being managed by Joe Radinovich, who also managed his 2022 campaign.[25] Public safety will be a theme of the campaign as it was in the last campaign.[26] Samuels initially differentiated himself from Omar on the Israel–Hamas war but both candidates agree on the need for a ceasefire.[22]

Radinovich is tight with Jacob Frey, and ran DFL and lost CD8 to Pete Stauber; so put Samuels in with the Cargill's good, the Chamber of Commerce is good political folks, middle road to Republican-lite; and nationwide there are a lot of Black preachers with good intentions, connections, and bona fides in politics like Samuels; but only one vocal Somali in the House, and diversity matters. 

 Omar has steered cash back to the district while not coddling folks there, and she's been a very fresh voice in the DC deep-stated Gestalt; where Samuels might well fit in as a Blue Dog / New Dem sort; Clinton-comfortable judging by the political company he keeps. Not bad folks. But very ordinary Dems and not innovative. 

As noted earlier, Samuels seems more comfortable with the party's status quo than Omar is. I would say Samuels is not a Hakeem Jeffries nor a Pelosi, but he's no Jamal Bowman either. 

Bowman and Omar seem more kindred in spirit than Samuels and Bowman, as best as Crabgrass sees things. And change if it ever comes will need the Omar and Bowman contingent more than those walking the familiar more traveled path.

For a perspective, I'd be cheered immensely were Samuels running DFL in CD6 and ousting Emmer, but he's not, and in CD6, Emmer'd be reelected, wide margin. 

It's in part that Omar is a national treasure, of a kind we need if not to sink into the mud of a slowly strangling status quo.

Like, don't look to Amy for change, it ain't there. She ain't ever pushing any envelope. Innovation is not in her DNA. Incrementalism is.

Again, voters in CD5 will decide. Both of the DFL primary front runners (there are two stragglers too) seem credible, each appealing to a different part of the party - Omar with the young and innovaters, Samuels perhaps too patient with the establishment. 

Or that's the impression Crabgrass has. Samuels would be okay. But not a Wellstone. Not a Vento. Not a magnet to inspire party growth.

 

FURTHER; Dark money, last cycle, Samuels.

Endorsements, this cycle +++. Start with the caveat that endorsements are not credited too highly here. Nonetheless, the item states:

Omar’s campaign has sought to steamroll Samuels with a slew of early endorsements, including every Democratic U.S. House leader — such as Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — labor unions, the majority of the Minneapolis City Council, Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman, DFL-Brooklyn Park, and nearly all of the Minneapolis legislative delegation. 

There are some high profile names missing, including 5th District resident U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, who are both key figures in the still-powerful DFL establishment but have found themselves opposite Omar on many high profile issues, from support for Israel to support for police. 

House Majority Leader Jamie Long, DFL-Minneapolis, who has endorsed Omar every election since her first run, said she gets results. 

“I know there’s some members of Congress who do their work and work hard and there are some members who fill seats, and Congresswoman Omar is one who works hard and gets results for our constituents,” Long said, adding that Omar can represent people of color and immigrants in in the district who have never “had a voice in Congress.”

D.A. Bullock, a filmmaker and Northside resident, said Omar’s refusal to be silenced is precisely what’s needed to represent the Black and immigrant communities of the 5th District.

“It’s important for those people to be able to speak out and speak to how we make this American experiment a better place for everyone,” Bullock said. “I applaud her for the bravery of that because I know that comes with a special form of pushback from those who want to keep things pretty much the same as they’ve always been.”

[...] 

The congresswoman has long been a fierce critic of Israel and its treatment of Palestinians. With much of Gaza in ruins and the death toll mounting by the day, many in the Democratic mainstream have come around to where Omar has long stood. Many Democrats, including Biden, are now calling for a ceasefire and are critical of Israel’s actions.

But Israel has strong backers — including in the 5th District — who would love to see Omar gone. The political arm of the AIPAC has funded candidates it believes can unseat members of Congress who have been critical of Israel. The super PAC hasn’t donated to Samuels this election cycle, but his campaign has attempted to court the group for funds. Samuels’ campaign manager told The New York Times that $4 million would be enough to defeat Omar. 

So as mentioned earlier and mentioned in that quoting, from Omar's perspective, Frey, Klobuchar and Radinovich are establishment types in the way. And Samuels uses one of them directly and courts Israeli money, according to the item. Factor that in with last cycle, where dark money was used against Omar. The last paragraph, last sentence of the quote, Radinovich said $4 million; and "donated to Samuels" is distinct from "spent on behalf of Samuels," i.e. dark money from a PAC not affiliated and, ostensibly, not coordinated with Samuels' campaign. 

There is wiggle room.  Palestinian Gazans are suffering, and Omar is outspoken.