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Saturday, December 02, 2023

NLX proposed train between Minneapolis and Duluth. The numbers seem optimistic.

 Yahoo News, Nov. 29 states:

MnDOT has said a one-way ticket from Minneapolis to Duluth is expected to cost between $30 and $35.

[...] Ridership is expected to bring in $12 million annually, which would cover 63 percent of the operating costs, according to MnDOT.

If you take the higher ticket price, thirty-five bucks, you'd need  342,857 tickets annually to raise twelve million dollars. 

Is that a realistic ridership prediction? It seems people drive now, and will continue to drive, with a handful riding a train.

How many people really need to get between Duluth and the Twin Cities, or proposed stops in between:

The train would make four round trips a day on existing BNSF tracks with stops in Coon Rapids, Cambridge, Hinckley and Superior.

The Northstar commuter rail experiment was a singular failure.  This has the potential to outspend and out-fail Northstar. 

Also, four trips per day and if you miss the train you're screwed suggests you drive, you park, you finish, you return. Or park and stay over as planned, return drive, as planned.

Matt Look at one point was quoted as calling it "casino train" and that might reflect on the most likely traffic level toward 347,000 per year. Some regard gambling a sin, where gambling on ridership, to a gambling venue, is an unpromising double gamble.

And that 347,000 level is projected to cover a hair less than 2/3 of the cost. That's not sound business.

Doing it because you can is different from deciding whether you should.