slightly updated
DWT notes DeSantis is slumping in his home state, where Haley and Ron are the two fallback options should Trump croak or be imprisoned:
Trump’s political team has been busy rounding up Florida endorsements in front of the GOP’s Florida Freedom Summit. The big news was that Skelator, the crooked former governor and current senator, Rick Scott endorsed Trump yesterday, putting immense pressure of Rubio to get on board as well. Florida congressmen who have endorsed Trump instead of DeSantis include Matt Gaetz, Byron Donalds, Brian Mast, Carlos Gimenez, John Rutherford, Daniel Webster, Anna Paulina Luna, Gus Bilirakis, Michael Waltz, Greg Steube, Cory Mills, Vern Buchanan. Only one has endorsed DeSantis, his former Secretary of State, Laurel Lee. 7 haven’t endorsed anyone yet.
The Messenger also reported that “state Rep. Randy Fine— who was a top ally of the governor’s in the Florida Legislature— withdrew his endorsement of DeSantis and switched to Trump’s team.” In a legislature that has long feared DeSantis, this is the ultimate slap in the face, a kind of death blow.
NBC reported that “Trump is the keynote speaker at a presidential forum in Orlando hosted by the Republican Party of Florida, an event where DeSantis was given a midafternoon speaking slot by his home-state GOP. In addition, Trump is expected to announce endorsements from more Florida Republicans, host party leaders at a reception at Mar-a-Lago, and hold a South Florida rally on the same day as the third GOP debate.”
To Byron York, a far right journalist, what we’re looking at now is "a one-candidate race with two backups" (in case Trump dies or goes to prison). “Some Republicans,” he wrote, “have long wanted the GOP presidential field to narrow. They hoped the also-ran candidates would drop out. So far, there hasn't been much of that. Instead, the field has effectively narrowed itself. The bottom tier is out of it. Asa Hutchinson, Doug Burgum, Tim Scott, Chris Christie, and Vivek Ramaswamy— none of them ever touched 10% support nationally, and now they're all under 5%, some even lower. Former Vice President Mike Pence, who dropped out over the weekend, was in that group, too.” So, all that’s left is a shrinking DeSantis and a surging Haley, fighting it out for second place, hoping Trump dies or starts attracting guilty verdicts. (On CNBC yesterday DeSantis said that if Trump is convicted of any of the criminal charges against him, he would be unelectable: “It would be fatal in a general election. I don't think the party should nominate in that situation.”
York asks, “what if one or more of those lawsuits and prosecutions succeed? What if, for example, Democrats manage to take Trump off the ballot in some, or all, states? To convict him of some number of felonies? Who knows what will happen— one possibility is prolonged chaos— but the Republican Party will need a presidential candidate. That's where the two backups, DeSantis and Haley, might come in.”
Ramaswamy, though, isn’t ready to be dismissed out of hand that way.
Vivek can spend, but a third fallback option is really not needed.
Should Trump encounter something possible but not likely skunking his big lead and making it not again him and Biden, Republicans will have to move adroitly. If a replacement proves needed Haley seems more respected - less damaged with better appeal - than DeSantis. Or that's the impression here.
That said, primaries are months away, with House Republicans slinging all they can against Biden, via Hunter-based theorizing, well short of smoking gun evidence, and with circumstantial guessing largely against the wind they'd wish in their sails.
Biden has Dean Phillips as a flawed backup option. Biden himself polling badly now, still. Phillips of no help on Biden boosting his approval numbers.
MSM has what it wants. A story that remains alive and uncertain. For selling media. Big money yet to be spent heavily in negative ads in swing states, but poised.
How is Vegas handicapping things this early? Do we bet, or just, for now, guess?
And watch.
Ancillary question, will the Johnson Speakership help or hinder Trump's chances. That being an open question for now.
If Johnson precipitates a shutdown, what then? If he pisses off Schumer and McConnell, will that move the balance? For now, both Senate leaders seem unhappy with the stunt Johnson and party cohorts have pulled aiming at IRS funding. Nobody loves fat cat tax cheats openly. But . . .
And -- will the reproductive freedom issue again animate a big turnout? On top of Biden v. Trump voter passions. (It is hard to be animated and passionate over Joe Biden; while Trump inspires those already susceptible to his style while turning others strongly toward Biden.) The DeSantis slump could be attributed to Trump's overshadowing, as well as Ron's demeanor not catching on. Haley seems to have a base, but a consistent single digit one. Vivek? The more you see the less you seriously believe.
If not only a shutdown, but a long one results from Johnson and crew digging in, will that factor into November 2024 turnout? It should . . .