Gary's post. In part:
Jones said one of the activists had said Gov. DeSantis is "a lot like Trump but maybe a little more palatable." I don't know who the GOP nominee will but I'm betting that GOP activists are tired of falling short of expectations like Republicans did in 2018, 2020 and 2022. If Republicans don't run as the 'Party of Prosperity and Positivity', then 2024 threatens to be another cycle when Republicans underperform again. If, however, Republicans run like tax-cutting Jack Kemp cheerful warriors, Republicans will win by a decisive margin.
In 2016, Trump caught lightning-in-a-bottle by promising to remember the 'Forgotten Man'. In 2020, Biden won by pretending to be competent and normal. Biden was neither. In 2024, I suspect that voters are looking for someone who's proven that he's competent, he won't shove his foot down his throat 3 times a day and who won't make voters worry what'll come out of his mouth next. The guy at center stage in this video looks very competent:
Trump is undoubtedly leading in the polls right now but that's based partly on his 100% name ID, partly on his accomplishments and partly because this cycle's campaign is just getting started.Will DeSantis be able to outperform Trump in the Philadelphia 'Collar Counties'? Will Gov. DeSantis be able to flip Arizona and Georgia from unexpectedly blue in 2020 to red in 2024? Trump leads on paper but that isn't where this race will be won. Who'll win? At this point, only God knows that.
Only God knows, Gary says, but perhaps Bugs Bunny has an idea how DeSantis might succeed or fail.
_________UPDATE_________
In fairness to DeSantis, he is not chasing the Presidency for "gold and victory," as the Disney video had its protagonist doing. What it is viewed as here - a for-free ego trip, since DeSantis will remain on the Florida payroll after losing the Republican nomination, same paycheck as before, same adulation there, while nursing some sort of inferiority complex needing public reassuring feedback, or some such pathology motivating him -- besides it being a free ride.
That is the Crabgrass view. In essence - vainly chasing ego strokes.
DownWithTyranny has its post in parallel to Gary's having his (with Klein being less kindly toward Ron). Worth quoting, in some aspects parallel to Gary's coverage but less infatuated with the candidacy:
Just One Republican Fascist Spoke In Iowa Yesterday-- God Chased Trump Away With A Tornado
Hours before DeSantis’ much heralded trip to Iowa to headline Randy Feenstra’s annual Family Picnic in Sioux Center yesterday, the Washington Post ran a piece by Hannah Knowles, DeSantis Seeks Rebound As He And Trump Hold Dueling Events In Iowa. But even before that 37 Republican state legislators endorsed DeSantis, [...] and former Speaker Brent Siegrist. Windschitl: “We need a leader that’s looking forward towards the future, not a leader that’s looking in the rearview mirror and potentially going to be vindictive towards other people. We need somebody that’s accountable to the people that has proven in their state that they can do this job and take that same prosperity and spread it throughout America.”
Also before Knowles’ piece was published a new poll of likely Iowa GOP caucus goers from National Research came out. If it’s accurate, it bodes poorly for Meatball Ron. They favor Trump over DeSantis 44% to 26%, with 6% of Haley, 4% for Pence, 3% for Ramaswarmy, 1% for Tim Scott and 1% for Asa Hutchinson. And in a head to head matchup with all the other candidates gone, Trump leads 45-33%. Trump’s rally yesterday in Des Moines was cancelled due to tornado warnings (or, more likely, because Trump knew he was going to have a small turnout). Awwwww...
That is a devastating lead. Yes, early polling can prove wrong, but from the looks of the numbers, those disliking Trump and DeSantis give crumbs of support to the also-candidates, while when the chips are down they poll less hostile to DeSantis.
Here is where DWT closely parallels Gary's analysis:
DeSantis who will officially launch his campaign next month, was in Iowa yesterday, warning about Trump's culture of losing. “Trump,” wrote Knowles, “is positioning himself as the inevitable nominee but has to contend with renewed GOP questions about his electability after a New York jury found him liable for defamation and sexual abuse… DeSantis and his backers are trying to recapture the momentum he had earlier in the year— pitching donors on the governor’s ability to beat Biden in swing states, working to counter the endorsements Trump has already lined up and taking sharper swings at the former president still beloved by much of the GOP.”
The challenge of criticizing Trump while also courting his voters was clear this past week as a pro-DeSantis super PAC, Never Back Down, ramped up its attacks, drawing some rebukes from vocal DeSantis supporters on social media. Responding to Trump’s CNN town hall, the PAC and its staff took aim at Trump’s handling of issues important to the GOP base: guns, abortion and a southern border wall. It also highlighted his time spent talking about the Jan. 6, 2021, storming of the U.S. Capitol by a pro-Trump mob; his false claims the 2020 election was rigged; and his defense of comments about how famous men can carry out unwanted sexual advances.DeSantis gave his most direct response to some of Trump’s attacks last week, telling Newsmax that Trump is employing Democratic talking points on his record on Social Security. But so far he’s stayed away from Never Back Down’s blunter attack lines. “We aren’t afraid to set the record straight and push back on false attacks from potential opponents who are scared of facing the Governor should he jump in the race,” Never Back Down communications director Erin Perrine said in a statement.The governor has been hosting a steady stream of supporters and potential supporters in Tallahassee in what one person familiar with the meetings likened to the “George W. Bush front porch strategy”— when politicians flocked to Texas to sit down with then-governor Bush ahead of his presidential run. In Iowa, Senate President Amy Sinclair and Iowa House Majority Leader Matt Windschitl endorsed DeSantis just ahead of his visit, headlining a list of more than three dozen state lawmakers throwing their support behind the governor, according to Never Back Down.Trump is well ahead in national primary polling. Still, the CNN town hall this week showcased the kinds of comments that galvanize Trump’s base but risk alienating swing voters, as the former president declined to back Ukraine over Russia, claimed the consequences of a default on the national debt “could be maybe nothing” and dismissed this week’s jury finding on sexual abuse.Trump’s team has pressed its advantage to rack up endorsements before DeSantis is officially in the race, locking down the support of much of the Republican congressional delegation from Florida— including a longtime DeSantis ally, Rep. Byron Donalds, and another congressman who said DeSantis has been unresponsive to his outreach.[...] In a video posted Friday to Truth Social, Trump said DeSantis “needs a personality transplant.”[...] DeSantis allies are hoping things turn around when DeSantis officially jumps in. His advisers have been reminding donors that it’s early in the race, laying out plans to spend particular time in Iowa and New Hampshire and noting that national polls don’t capture the dynamics in early primary states, [...]“I just think too much of America has made up its mind on the former president and they’re gonna be ready to turn the page,” argued Bob Vander Plaats, an Iowa evangelical leader who wields major influence in the caucuses. He had lunch in Florida this week with DeSantis and his wife, Casey DeSantis.When a recent CBS News poll asked likely Republican primary voters what they wanted in a nominee if it isn’t Trump, 37 percent said they wanted a candidate who shows loyalty to Trump, while another 56 percent wanted a candidate who simply doesn’t talk about him.DeSantis [...] will zip across the state to Cedar Rapids, where he is headlining a regional fundraiser for the Iowa GOP. Kauffman, the party chair, will be asking him questions and said he’s eager to get personal with the governor— who some Republicans have criticized as scripted or standoffish.“I know we’ve been told to give time for him to interact,” Kaufmann said, adding that as an interviewer he has a “reputation for bringing out some real human moments in these folks.”[...] “People ask me, am I paying attention to the polls … I think right now those are all meaningless,” said Bill Stern, a former state finance chair for Trump in South Carolina who is now backing DeSantis. He said of DeSantis, “Let’s give him time and let him prove himself.”
Supportive Republicans say "scripted or standoffish" while Trump said it differently, "needs a personality transplant."
Klein adds his wrap-up:
In his advice to DeSantis column yesterday, Ross Douthat wrote “the most basic lesson to be drawn by Republican politicians from watching Trump’s town hall is the importance, for any would-be Trumpian successor, of demonstrating that you too can engage with the mainstream press and come away a winner. This is the core of Vivek Ramaswamy’s presidential strategy so far, which has lifted him to nearly Mike Pence-ian levels of support in primary polls in part because of his willingness to argue with Chuck Todd or Don Lemon, not just rattle off talking points on Hannity. But it’s the opposite of the DeSantis method, which has been to stiff-arm the mainstream media (with a side of mockery from his friends and allies on Twitter). That’s fine for the governor of a rightward-trending state trying to get things done locally and build support with conservative activists. But it’s not what Republican voters actually seem to want from their national champions. They want the show, the battle, the drama. And you can’t really own the libs, in the end, if you won’t even take their questions.”
While Klein offers his own photo-shopped DeSantis image, fitted to the "Meatball Ron" tag Klein's assigned the Guv, I offer one that is kinder but still attached to reality:
I know Gary in his posting feels differently, that there will be a true contest between DeSantis and Trump.
In contrast, both are viewed by Crabgrass as Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum clones of one another - mirror images on policy in fact and in comparison to progressives, if not in terms of appeal to the rabid Republican base.
The view here, DeSantis is akin to Chuck Schumer but a bit slower. Neither of those two rings a progressive bell.
And then there is Mike Pence.
FURTHER: To encompass the possibility - the view here is that DeSantis lacks the personal make-up to do what George "Willie Horton" Bush did back as a southern politician trailing a more popular coastal front-runner. Were DeSantis to take a second spot on a GOP ticket, balancing it geographically, it could be a strong challenge to Biden.
DeSantis is relatively young, as Bush was to Reagan, and could wait four years without aging past his prime. Bush waited eight, but it was unclear to me who was really calling the shots during Gipper times. It would be pragmatic to have a pseudo-contest and then embrace and run together, but does DeSantis have that ego-postponement capability in him? That is a valid consideration.
FURTHER: Digby is good at reading tea leaves, and, this early, believes Trump has the GOP primary voter base locked up and loving him. In terms of "locked up" she concludes:
It’s looking very good for candidate Trump.
No, the obvious play for the rest of them is to hope he drops dead on the golf course or the feds have him in custody (which might actually bond him even more deeply to the Primary voters) in which case they are the back-up. Short of that, I think he probably has this all wrapped up.
Yeah. For Trump, "wrapped up" is kinder than "locked up."
FURTHER: Digby also has posted about a turncoat affecting North Carolina abortion law; and it is worth reading.
FURTHER: Back to the opening of the post, DeSantis really is an Emer Fudd with attitude. That voter suppression business he did, with the former felons, was as crass as any human action could be. If it played okay in Florida, that's Florida, but nationwide the stench is something Fudd has to push against.
The belief here is he would not take second spot from Trump, rather staying at his Florida friendly turf and waiting four years. He'd see how Pence ended up and would say Trump fucks over people whenever he chooses, as if that were a sport, and DeSantis would not want to end up Penced, gallows and all.
Who'd take second spot given how Pence was treated and given who Trump is; that is a major question with Trump, as are the pending litigation possibilities.
The Republicans are so bereft beyond Trump, that Fudd is taken seriously. Not that Biden is anything to write home about, he's not, but he's not Trump and he's not Fudd.
And then ---- there's Harris. With a host of competent appealing black women Biden could have put onto the ticket second spot, he picked Harris. Anita Hill would have been a better choice, but Biden had kind of an uncomfortable situation there.
Kennedy is running. But the press will not accord him any traction, unlike the way Trump in 2016 was accorded attention to try to gin up a horse race they could report about, and then - surprising all, he won. Kennedy will either drop out soon, or single digit for awhile and then give it up.
Mediocrity, thy name is DC. How can so many distasteful people get elected?
Worse, reelected.