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Wednesday, February 07, 2018

Strib posted caucus straw poll results, and in posting about Strib's post, I get to quote a Republican. A local Republican even (not a DC Potomac Fever sufferer).

STRIB FIRST: GOP's Jeff Johnson, DFL's Tim Walz get wins in tests at Minnesota caucus meetings -- Party activists weighed in for the first time on the governor's race in a busy year for state politics. By J. Patrick Coolican Star Tribune - February 6, 2018 — 11:56pm. This link.

Headlines seldom tell the whole story, and in this instance demographics matter. Strib presents more detail about DFL results than for the GOP (DFL data is broken down by congressional districts, GOP data is not).

Readers interested in Strib's subjective analysis and reporting are again referred to the link; beyond this limited text excerpt:

With all precincts reporting, almost 11,000 Republicans had participated in the caucus, barely more than half the 20,000 who showed up 2010 and well less than the 14,000 in 2014.

On the DFL side, turnout was on its way to 30,000, more than the 22,500 who turned out in 2010, the last time there was an open governor’s race.

But even as Republicans headed to their caucuses, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty was upstaging the event.

The former two-term Republican governor announced he is leaving his job as chairman of a Washington, D.C.-based bank lobbying organization to consider another bid for governor. Pawlenty’s entry into the race would jolt the Republican field, and speculation about his next move hung in the air at many Republican caucuses.

[...] Asked about Pawlenty, Johnson said, ‘There’s nothing I can do about that. He has to make his decision,” he said [sic]. “I hope he’ll talk to Republicans on the ground and not just big donors and lobbyists. It will give him a different idea of what Republican voters are actually looking for in this race,” he said.

The sign is definite rattling by the Sam's Club man turned bank lobbyist,(at $2.6 million/yr), before he strikes.

Two Strib charts matter the most:


DFL: Walz was strongest in CD1, making sense because that is the district he represents. In each district Walz also got the highest vote count except in CD6 where Otto had a few votes more, and in CD8 where Otto trounced Walz among caucus goers (see this link, 'nuff said).

CD 3,4, and 5 had higher DFL turnout than the other districts. In most instances the three progressive DFL women, in total, out-polled Walz, except in his district but a couple other districts were close that way. Further decision making in the caucusing-convention nomination process will prove interesting. At the State Convention when lower polling candidates fold, how their votes distribute among survirors will be decisive, as to party endorsement. Whether a primary results, nobody knows at this point.

GOP: Johnson had roughly three times the straw votes than any other listed [vs shadow] candidate polled. In the GOP, if Johnson and Pawlenty are most favored down the line and presuming you don't walk from $2.6 million for greasing the DC skids for the big banks and Wall Street without an agenda, it would be helpful to see a primary to gauge the Tea Party mood and strength vs the Rockefeller Republican remnants with the humongo money sacks. It could be the Eric Cantor - David Brat dichotomy repeated - the one where concentrated cash did not seize the day.

THE CD6 - ST. CLOUD AREA REPUBLICAN PUBLISHED PERSPECTIVE: Gary Gross, who can be regarded as a GOP area insider, writing here, at this specific post, opined [with included links from the original]:

Jeff Johnson and Tim Walz won their party’s non-binding straw polls at Tuesday night’s precinct caucuses. Unfortunately for both men, that won’t get nearly as much publicity as the breaking news from earlier in the day. The other noteworthy news from Tuesday night’s straw polls is that Keith Downey underperformed, losing [...]“Undecided” by a 15.6% – 14.6% margin.

After such a lackluster performance in the straw poll, the Downey campaign must ask themselves if there’s a legitimate pathway to the endorsement. [...]

Full disclosure: I’m still undecided so I don’t have a dog in this fight at this point. [...]

[...] If Walz is the DFL-endorsed candidate, [...] The Bernie Sanders wing of the DFL is dominant. That’s where the enthusiasm comes from. That isn’t where Tim Walz is from. Further, like I said earlier this week, Walz alienated NRA voters and the Iron Range. OF the 3 DFL finalists, all have difficult paths to the governor’s mansion. Erin Murphy is little known outside the Twin Cities. Further, she’s hated in rural Minnesota. Rebecca Otto is hated on the Range, especially after fundraising off of her decision to vote against approving mining exploration leases.

Coming from outside the DFL, Gary's perspective on Sanders enthusiasm is noteworthy. Unsure of what "the 3 DFL finalists" is meant to say, this early, the hope here at Crabgrass would be either of the two candidates remaining candidate I favor, Liebling and Thissen, emerging at the State Convention as a consensus favorable alternative to early caucus frontrunners if they cannot lock a decisive tally with ballot after ballot resulting. However at that level rank choice voting is not used and the elimination process might favor either Otto or Walz. [strike-through updating per reporting that Thissen drops out - may he stay legislatively active to again become House Speaker. The report suggested he might have burnout from legislative public service tenure. He'd be great running for CD6 against Emmer, but the district demographics likely would not work well for that.]

Either, obviously would be favorable to grassroots over a Wall Street - big-bank-owned suck-up such as Pawlenty, who's been going around talking up the sop-for-the-wealthy tax monstrosity as if a few table scraps to groundlings should be thought to tip any mood of the people away from cynicism and disgust with DC Republicans; including Pawlenty among the rest.

___________UPDATE___________
What is Pawlenty doing other than planning a primary contest without any intent to participate in party caucus events? Washington DC bank lobbyists don't deign to honor and abide by the party caucus endorsement? They're special?

What? Weighing options to shoot for the Wellstone Senate seat against Tina Smith? Is it hubris or dithering? Some of each?