Jeff Erdmann is not wealthy enough to self-finance a Congressional campaign without DCCC help, which was refused. Every Dev Crabgrass reader is urged to view that video. Especially any reader in CD2 (or elsewhere looking for a candidacy deserving a contribution):
https://erdmannforcongress.com/
The DCCC prematurely - before any voter caucusing in CD2 - picked Angie Craig for its backing. Angie Craig made a fortune within senior ranks of a medical device company. Again, Jeff Erdmann is a regular person - a teacher for 27 years and, hence, no millionaire from such a difficult job which Erdmann successfully performed for decades. As will be seen in completing this post wealth seems the main differentiating factor key to the DCCC premature focus.
Precinct caucusing was early February of this year.
For a flavor of the DCCC approach to handicapping a race, look to a Nov 15, 2017 RollCall web post where the DCCC's Craig endorsement is reported along with ten other candidates that DCCC shines its light on [links omitted, italics added]:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is naming 11 candidates Wednesday in the first round of its Red to Blue program, which highlights strong Democratic recruits.
[...] Being named to Red to Blue opens doors for candidates who can tout their inclusion on the list to donors. Candidates also benefit from guidance and staff resources from the DCCC, which has been in contact with all Democratic House candidates who have been willing to collaborate and communicate with the committee this year.
The DCCC evaluates candidates’ fundraising, grass-roots engagement, local support, ties to the community and campaign infrastructure when deciding who makes the cut for the program.
[...]
Red to Blue candidates
Arizona’s 2nd District: Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, [...] Kirkpatrick ended the third quarter with $269,000.
Colorado’s 6th District: Jason Crow, a retired Army Ranger, [...] Crow had $393,000 in the bank.
Iowa’s 1st District: State Rep. Abby Finkenauer has won strong labor support and the backing of EMILY’s List [...] She had $169,000 in the bank.
Illinois’ 12 District: Brendan Kelly, the St. Clair County state’s attorney [...] Kelly had $305,000 in the bank.
Kansas’ 2nd District: Paul Davis, the former state House minority leader [...] He had $344,000 cash on hand.
Michigan’s 8th District: Elissa Slotkin, a former assistant secretary of Defense and a CIA analyst, [...] She had $377,000 in the bank.
Minnesota’s 2nd District: Angie Craig, the 2016 nominee, is back for a rematch against freshman GOP Rep. Jason Lewis [...] Craig ended the third quarter with $2500 in the bank, leftover from her 2016 campaign. [having dumped $4 million in losing last cycle, having that clout]
North Carolina’s 9th District: Dan McCready, a solar energy financier and Marine veteran, [...] McCready had $700,000 in the bank.
Nevada’s 3rd District: Susie Lee, a philanthropist who finished third in the 2016 primary [...] She had $308,000 in the bank.
New York’s 22nd District: Anthony Brindisi, a state assemblyman, [...] Brindisi had $399,000 in the bank.
Pennsylvania’s 6th District: Chrissy Houlahan, an Air Force veteran, [...] had $662,000 in the bank.
With DCCC you show pay to play, or take a hike: Yes, money is what talks to the
Bottom line with the DCCC: Their putting their fat thumb on the scale, prematurely, can be a candidacy killer for all but the wealthy and the well-connected - those with wealthy contributing friends, whereas the money of the wealthier candidates already tilts the playing field improperly, the DCCC aim is to tilt it further to tilt progressive candidates lacking money off the field altogether. They dismiss more than the Romney 47% as irrelevant. They go against say that percentage having only the wallet of a career high school teacher raising a family.
Again, not Craig's fault. They, the DCCC beltway influence machine, are poisonous weeds. But Craig is better than that, just moneyed, which itself is not a fault in one who started out in a single parent working family setting, and scored a bundle suggesting a talent to be respected. Again however, Craig's success becoming wealthy is rooted in the medical-industrial complex where single payer fights and loses over and over with that industry, as a whole, stinking of lobbying and influence buying. This is cause to look carefully at Craig.
Again, the faults of the medical-industrial complex are not Craig's fault. What she can be faulted for is having been the CD3 DFL candidate who lost in 2016 against talk radio mouth and John Galt loving Republican candidate Jason Lewis; 173,970 Lewis votes to 167,315 Craig votes after Craig's having outspent Lewis 4-to-1; over a million spent, each side. That's not much of an argument for getting a second bite at the apple.
The 2016 race was for an open seat, Lewis now being an incumbent in 2018, and in 2016 the Craig campaign spent $4,012,823 to motivate 167,315 votes, or twenty-four bucks per vote, compared to the Lewis campaign spending $1,020,649 to motivate 173,970 voters, or $5.87 per vote.
Whatever explanations or excuses can be made, including outside PAC money, and including Bernie being screwed by establishment Dems who ran a joke of a wealth-indebted candidate top-ticket who could not beat a dunce, Donald Trump.
Nonetheless, the Lewis campaign was more efficient. Now Lewis has the benefit of incumbency (which some may consider a negative benefit where polling answers on that possibility would be interesting to see, even were it early polling now, which can reach early conclusions not borne out in November voting.)
Yes, it was a presidential year the Republicans won - Presidency, House, and Senate; Craig being road-kill down ballot, along with and arguably in large measure because of Clinton's uninspiring demeanor and approach atop the Dem offerings.
The apparent beltway pundit thought is that now, after two years of Trump/Pence/Ryan/McConnell/Lewis, the mood of the electorate might be changed and so Craig if again spending a fortune might win this time, (and Erdmann is just a non-moneyed impediment in the way).
Again, that attitude toward Erdmann is the DCCC's. At a guess, it is not Craig's. More likely, she's smarting from the loss and wants a second shot. History teaches, Clinton lost in 2008 to Obama, and got a second shot; which ended like Sonny Liston's second shot against Ali, while neither Trump nor Jason Lewis is Ali.
All of that said, a few links, before getting to the heart of the matter; the Craig ballotpedia page, the Craig campaign webpage issues statement, the Craig view of GOP tax policy, her bio page, and the homepage itself; all Craig defining herself and her aims.
THE HEART OF THE MATTER: THE CD2 DFL HELD A CANDIDATE FORUM WHICH THE UPTAKE POSTED ON YOUTUBE SO THAT YOU CAN COMPARE AND CONTRAST CRAIG AND ERDMANN IN ASSESSING SINCERITY AND IN FIGURING WHICH IS MORE LIKELY A WINNER.
A 2016 SESSION BETWEEN CRAIG AND LEWIS IS ALSO ONLINE, HOW SHE PERFORMED THEN, AND MIGHT A LEARNING CURVE EXIST, DEVELOPED OVER THE TWO YEARS LEWIS BUILT HIS RECORD, SUCH AS IT IS, IN CONGRESS. AT THE OUTSET CRAIG DODGED SINGLE PAYER AS THE OBVIOUS HEALTHCARE ISSUE, WHERE SHE CAME CLOSER TO THE OBVIOUS AS ERDMANN FROM THE START ADVANCED. SHE DEFENDED A CLEARLY FAILED PROGRAM, ROMNEYCARE-OBAMACARE, "MAKING IT BETTER" WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE POPULACE SEE: SINGLE PAYER AS THE ANSWER. (NOTE ALSO HOW LEWIS RUNS AGAINST "NANCY PELOSI.")
HOPEFULLY CD2 ENDORSEMENT-DECIDERS WILL VIEW BOTH, AS WELL AS THE ERDMANN VIDEO MENTIONED AT THE OUTSET.
BOTTOM LINE:
It is in the hands of people besides me. Erdmann is the candidate I would favor if caucusing in CD2. Not having a vote there, I shall watch the chips fall as they do.
Craig and Erdmann each stated she/he would abide by the endorsement.
Jason Lewis often guested Michele Bachmann on his talk radio, and the commonality between those two tells the entire story. There is no hesitation in saying that if the CD2 DFL wants to give Craig a second shot at Lewis, she should be backed in every way to win. She, as well as Erdmann, would not only be a lesser evil, but instead each would be an excellent candidate to send to the House. I state that without qualifications. Hatred of the ways and means of the DCCC does not interfere with seeing each as a quality candidate and wishing unqualified success to whichever of the two the CD2 caucus process chooses. Craig appears to have the fire and will to want to improve second place in a two horse race; so should CD2 DFL caucusing give her the chance, then it is all in, and win, Angie, win.
Jason Lewis is a studied, intentional loud-mouthed but glib charlatan. Not dumb, but Nixon-like, while not looking like a weasel. Jason Lewis has been a pliant tool of Paul Ryan. Jason Lewis needs to be replaced by an independent minded person. How anyone, not to mention a voting majority, ever opted to put him in the House in the first place mystifies me.
Finally, in 2016 Craig and another woman, Mary Lawrence, were seeking the DFL candidacy and consistent with the above, my guess was Craig then represented the better candidate of the two, as was posted. Dave Mindeman wrote then also.
Now truth time - the passion Craig showed in the Erdmann-Craig forum got DCCC'd into oblivion within this insipid 2016 sound bite monstrosity, and hopefully if Craig gets endorsed in 2018, she will have the learning curve to avoid the stupid people who did that to her. Those hucksters were selling Wonder Bread, it's good for everyone bullshit, and not showing a candidate with any resonance or appeal. It was cookie cutter beltway consultancy cash-sucking without anything of any worth to show for what they charged. She'd do better to run short segments from her forum Q and A session than again being steered by ignoramuses into any repeat of that losing failure to message a cause to vote Craig. It was a failure to show a real human with real passion about things the nation needs done and a dedication to doing them. John Podesta could have produced that god-awful thing for all his campaign management skill.
More Craig half-minute soundbite advertising: here, here, here, and here.
Are you impressed? Is this an indication to Craig to change team membership for 2018? Do any of those ads show you a thing about who Angie Craig is and what she wants to advocate in Congress? Should that be the message? Or should it be "I will not be in lockstep with Paul Ryan's and Mitch McConnell's agenda against America," if a choice is to go negative? That message could be advanced favorably by either Erdmann or Craig.
If Craig is endorsed and trusts her instincts and avoids DCCC "message management" Lewis might be a one termer. Erdmann also would not fall into such a crap trap as putting out that manner of sound-bite beltway consultancy production. He's shown he has sense.
Then, look at the policy-empty garbage WCCO shoveled onto Craig. Not what economic things would you advance to help people; but less. A candidate deserves better.
It looked to be a soft-handed ambush hit piece. Erdmann seems he might be more terse with limited time, and Craig, given a second shot may be more cautious - a sound-bite negative ad when handed back to you is difficult to give an interview wrap-up response that ends the session favorably.
Now Lewis has a voting record to discuss, and Erdmann and/or Craig need not go into his talk radio stupidity for fools. He has voted as Paul Ryan's tool. And whichever candidate the CD2 DFL endorses will be running against Paul Ryan and not against Donald Trump. Making Trump the issue, and not Ryan, would be error. It appears the DCCC will for 2018 aim to package a one-size-fits-all anti-Trump message, and it should be anti-Ryan, where Lewis voted as Ryan ordered and dodged holding in-district town halls exactly as Ryan himself has, with Randy Bryce correctly pointing that way.
Ryan is a heartless bastard going after taking away your Social Security, with Jason Lewis as his enabler, which is worse than any Nancy Pelosi thoughts and actions. That is the Lewis track record. And trickle down taxation change is not, and has proven to have never been, a rising tide lifting all boats. Trickle down lifts the yachts. It swamps the row boats.
People know that.
What has Lewis done for the district: Running on Jason Lewis' record could note his committee assignment Congressional page:
The Congressman is honored to be the senior freshman Member on the House Budget Committee. This allows Congressman Lewis to play a role in returning fiscal responsibility to the government and tackling the $20 trillion national debt. The Budget Committee has been a standing committee in the House since 1974 and leads the process for Budget Reconciliation. This process enables the House and Senate to fast-track key reforms, for example in health care and our tax code.
[...] The Committee on Education & the Workforce was previously chaired by Second District Representative John Kline, and Congressman Lewis is looking forward to continuing that service and working to return education decisions to parents and teachers.
[...] The Transportation & Infrastructure Committee has jurisdiction over all areas of transportation, on ground, air and sea, and major infrastructure such as pipelines and water systems. The Congressman understands the importance of efficient transportation and robust infrastructure in keeping American competitive on a global scale. Congressman Lewis is committed to practical solutions like widening highways to ease the traffic burden, making gas prices more affordable with crucial pipelines, and letting farmers manage their own land without being burdened by big-government rules.
Did he even attend meetings, or voice a single thing to help the district? What? DeVos vouchers? Rural broadband? MIA on that. Countering the squeeze of concentrated agricultural power in the hands of seed and equipment vendors on the one end, and concentrated buyers on the other, with district farmers in between? MIA again. The latest tax plus Republican proposed budget action will widen the deficit. The Republican fiasco on healthcare and then the tax perks for the wealthy, where's any help there for the actual voting people of the district? Infrastructure - road expansion - without adequate amounts of spending and policy aimed at affordable housing for road users is putting the cart before the horse. Renewable energy is infrastructure. Lewis' contribution there, a bravo for pipelines.
So will Erdmann or Craig better bring the story to voters? Craig if endorsed would have learned from 2016, but, should the Erdmann team be given the opportunity?
However the question gets resolved, it is the CD2 DFL caucus process that should decide, with no DCCC thumb on the scale; particularly if it's a beltway dumb thumb aiming to produce ineffective soundbite ads, but ads yielding substantial advertising revenue for beltway consultants.
End of story.