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Sunday, April 26, 2009

Strib has a poll. Is it dumb, or am I missing something rather than Strib?

Here is the excerpt of the relevant part of the item online today, here:

Minnesota Poll: Most want Coleman to call it quits
The Republican should end his recount fight, most say, and fatigue over the six-month ordeal is clear.
By KEVIN DUCHSCHERE, Star Tribune - update: April 26, 2009 - 12:10 AM


Nearly two-thirds of Minnesotans surveyed think Norm Coleman should concede the U.S. Senate race to Al Franken, but just as many believe the voting system that gave the state its longest running election contest needs improvement.

A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has found that 64 percent of those responding believe Coleman, the Republican, should accept the recount trial court's April 13 verdict that Democrat Franken won the race by 312 votes.

Only 28 percent consider last week's appeal by Coleman to the Minnesota Supreme Court "appropriate."

The random telephone survey [with critical detail of wording and sequencing of questions omitted from reporting] of 1,042 Minnesota adults produced a sample consisting of 20 percent Republicans, 36 percent Democrats and 37 percent independents, with 6 percent offering no self-identification. The poll has a margin of sampling error of 4 percentage points, plus or minus.

The heart of Coleman's appeal is the 4,400 rejected absentee ballots that he says should be tallied because they're identical to ballots already counted.

Although 57 percent of Republican poll respondents approve of Coleman's appeal to the state Supreme Court, the same portion of Republicans want him to quit should he lose there.

Half of all Democrats polled also think Franken should concede if Coleman wins before the state high court, while only 38 percent prefer that the DFLer take the case to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Independents would be more patient with a Franken appeal than one by Coleman, but a majority of that group think that either should call a halt once the Minnesota court rules.


[Italics added for emphasis.] The poll question wording appears important, because, read it all again, if Coleman wins at the State Supreme Court level, then 4400 ballots will be counted and there's no assurance if that happens that it would erase or even dent the 312 vote margin Franken holds. It could increase the Franken lead. So, if "Half of all Democrats polled also think Franken should concede if Coleman wins before the state high court," what were they asked?

If Coleman's lame appeal is surprisingly given any higher court credence; count the ballots first, eh?