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Monday, September 22, 2008

A stand-alone no-excerpt blog post - from 2005, plus a sobering article-ending paragraph; same timeframe.

Early housing bubble analysis, here and here.

Read them. I will not extensively excerpt. Not at all. Go to these two sources, please.

The second item is linked to by the first, which references a host of worthwhile linked reading while giving due praise to Asia Times, and that second item, by Henry C.K. Liu in Asia Times is hard in its judgment of Alan Greenspan, and then concludes in words everyone not insanely wealthy should heed - the double-whammy might get you:

Through mortgage-backed securitization, banks now are mere loan intermediaries that assume no long-term risk on the risky loans they make, which are sold as securitized debt of unbundled levels of risk to institutional investors with varying risk appetite commensurate with their varying need for higher returns. But who are institutional investors? They are mostly pension funds that manage the money the US working public depends on for retirement. In other words, the aggregate retirement assets of the working public are exposed to the risk of the same working public defaulting on their house mortgages. When a homeowner loses his or her home through default of its mortgage, the homeowner will also lose his or her retirement nest egg invested in the securitized mortgage pool, while the banks stay technically solvent. That is the hidden network of linked financial landmines in a housing bubble financed by mortgage-backed securitization to which no one is paying attention. The bursting of the housing bubble will act as a detonator for a massive pension crisis.


In capital letters, the warning is to worry over MASSIVE PENSION CRISIS.

That potential impact is why everyone should cut some slack to the Treasury, SEC, Fed, White House and congressional people trying now to decide and negotiate short-term mop-up and long term reform.

The mop-up is needed, and needed sooner than later. Crabbing about "welfare for the rich" done here but not as stridently as by others, must be tempered by "all in it together" consideration of the fact that pension funds are big players in investment markets and have been exposed to the contagion in ways that caution against extreme reactions to CEO rapacious earnings take-outs, etc. The worry, don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. Not to cut off the nose to spite the face.

That means the long term rescue debate between the Bush executive (and McCain, all that camp), and the Dems, over the government buying up the mortgages and then giving loan-term and rate adjustments is the key thing to watch as election time approaches, and beyond.

Housing values will depress and likely stay depressed, but that whammy on the regular folks should not be compounded by seeing any counted upon pensions being wiped out and not being there when the time comes. That would be a double wipe-out impact on regular people; with the rich generally staying rich; and able, long term, to afford their country club dues well into the future in any event. As with GOP taxation, the lower income rungs are used most by those climbing ever higher onto the ladder.

An Obama presidency at least offers a chance that taxing inequity might change, fairer taxation is a goal that Obama has promised to pursue, but Congress has the fiscal writing and voting power while Obama would only have the veto and the bully-pulpit.

So make it Franken along with Obama, or blame yourself when the pension's not there.

Regardless of what Franken wrote eight years ago for Playboy, be smart, not dumb, this time. Vote for him.

Coleman is more of the same, trust that it is true, and more of the same will have already negatively impacted peoples' expectations of how the long term housing market would favor their twilight years. That lost anticipated equity increment is likely water under the bridge, well downriver by now. In assessing government activity, try to focus on and be supportive of those politicians and leaders attempting to see that pension funds don't yield a redoubled hurt to regular people. The politicians hold the power to implement things. We can only watch and vote.

_______UPDATE______
That "The Mess That Greenspan Made" blog is tightly written, staying current, and worth bookmarking. It gives useful links to reporting and analysis that are worth a follow-up and could be overlooked w/o good source identification and linking.