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Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Alpine Woods as a developers' small-market barometer.

Alpine Woods was a consolidation of about five or six parcels, where John Peterson brought the big sewer pipe across Sunfish Lake Blvd., as a precursor to getting sewer-water to the gun club. From the parcels he bought he marketed 22 "urban size" lots. Now there are in midwinter, ten "For Sale" signs as of today, Jan 16, 2007 [built homes plus vacant lots]. I cannot breakdown by vacant vs built lots because I only did a total count. I do not believe there was a single property with two signs. That means ten out of twenty-two parcels on the market at the same time, in the space of six normal size Ramsey homesteads. I have no knowledge whether the vacant lots are original developer sales, or resales by first or successor purchasers. A builder deciding to not now risk a spec home and putting a lot back up for sale would be a strong barometer of substantial market caution. Is it only a cautious market bottomed out, or is the worse yet to come? And what does that imply for the greater density of shared wall housing on the ground and planned at Town Center? How will taxpayers be affected?