Thursday, May 31, 2012

RAMSEY - With multiple candidates filing right and left for city council seats, here is a thought experiment some challengers might consider.

The incumbents have put the city in the position of bankrolling millions of construction money for Flaherety Collins and their rental-by-the-rails adventure. In a junior position to 20+ million dollars loaned by a Pittsburgh bank. In an earlier North Carolina condo adventure Flaherty and Collins had the thing go splat with U.S. Bank, a local lender, on the hook there. Notice, U.S. Bank is not lending this time. Pittsburgh money at risk, and City of Ramsey at a bigger risk because the Pittsburgh bank has a first position mortgage lien against the real property.

In that context, groundbreaking was delayed so that the success or distress of the Flaherty adventure will not be apparent to candidates and voters by election day.

Convenient?

For some, yes.

Challenger candidates in assessing the judgment of incumbents may want to guess: At the rental rates and occupancy levels that Flaherty is forecasting as needed to service the Pittsburgh bank (to keep them happy and the rental complex free from possible mortgage foreclosure), AND to pay City of Ramsey off, what's a good way to guess at vacancy rates and occupancy likelihoods Flaherty may face? One good idea is to consider what vacancy and actual real rate situation is being faced by an existing Ramsey shared-wall rental complex near Lord Of Life Church - call it a sensible approach to having an educated guess about Flaherty's situation and likelihoods:

This link. Map, here.

I am not pretending I know the answer to what actual and current rental prospects are and in the near future will be, in Ramsey. However, Candidates, sensible information is yours for the asking. Chat up the Terrace Hill folks, find out their rental history. If you may end up on council they likely would not want to alienate you by stonewalling or blowing smoke in your face.

__________UPDATE__________
I would not expect the Terrace Hill folks to be indelicate in expressing opinions, yet were I in their place I would feel a bit raw over a big-time competitor being ushered in with free parking ramp subsidy from the City and with the City being my competitor's credit source of last resort. They, after all, carried all their own water. And then, Flaherty comes in with a nicely tailored suit and expensive wrist watch, and gets perks and benefits not ever offered Terrace Hill. That's hardly fair, there in Ward 4.

________FURTHER UPDATE________
In using Terrace Hills as a "best comparable" to what might be expected from Flaherty's adventure, two factors may be relevant. Flaherty will likely double the amount of shared wall rentals in Ramsey, and that supply side change will have its ripple effect, demand side, pricing wise.

Also, you can talk heated salt water pool all you want, and presumably Flaherty employees will tout that, but the fact is you do not live in the pool, you live in the apartment. Will the Flaherty units be comparably sized to those in Terrace Hills, larger for the same price, or substantially smaller. You rent the space, not the ambiance, just as you eat the steak and not the sizzle. Square footage per unit matters.

________FURTHER UPDATE_________
From here, planned pricing and square footages, for the rentals-by-the-rails thing, night trains and all:

click image to enlarge and read it

And, candidates, if you are wondering whether Flaherty-Collins is spreading itself thin where any domino failing might knock down the whole line with our City possibly left holding the bag; note multiple things where fewer might have meant the City did not have to be pushed into playing David Flaherty's banker of last resort. Here and here. Don't forget, "Many a slip twixt cup and lip," has remained an "old saying" and not fallen into disuse largely because of the great truth it embodies. Ramsey is not only at risk for Flaherty adventuring in Ramsey, but all that other stuff adds to our risk. The domino-effect risk is on top of the what if they cannot rent stuff next to the loud and busy rail tracks risk. And aside from candidates, voters, this is your first and for two years your only shot at having a vote. Do you feel confident enough to give incumbents a vote of confidence? Decide that one for yourself. My mind's made up and I shall vote accordingly. Darren's received more than enough, for my liking. You will be voting a vote of confidence on Darren, because enough seats are up that replacing the pro-Darren faction and enacting change is feasible, this election. UPDATE: It's a vote of confidence on Vegas junketing too. It's worth adding that.