Wednesday, March 17, 2010

DFL Senate District 48 - one of the last conventions.

Reed and Clark each did well. Clark probably took a delegate advantage, but I would have to see the numbers to be certain. Reed had generated a number of strong supporters. There is no hint of who the favored governor candidate will be.

There were a lot of uncommitted people going on to be delegates in Duluth.

Peter Perovich, after several ballots defeated Mike Starr, to run in Senate District 48 against Mike Jungbauer.

Laurie Olmon will run in House District 48A. Hackbarth is the incumbent.

House District 48B formed a screening committee after no conference attendees expressed a desire to run.

Jim Abeler is the incumbent.

It took multiple ballots with Perovich and Starr lacking sixty percent. It seemed uncertain about whether one would ultimately get the needed sixty percent. I went there hoping Marty would get a delegate or two. I ended up in a subcaucus that focused on Reed, and she got two delegates from the group. They split on governor, one being inclined toward Marty, the other undecided.

It is a difficult choice, and the primary will be an important event.

Bakk, Rukavina, Rybak, Thissen, Marty, Kelliher and Entenza were all there. Thissen's wife was there too, I am bad with names, but they both seemed like very good balanced people. After Marty, he would be my choice of those contesting the endorsement. I like Mark Dayton, but if Thissen were to end up a consensus compromise candidate at State Convention, if the other camps stymied one another and after several ballots there were to be a shift, I would be hard pressed in a primary between Thissen and Dayton.

Entenza took a delegate. He had a strong bloc, committed early, and staying loyal. It seems that, in general, Entenza has not had much traction in the senate district conventions.

If there is no governor endorsement, it is unclear to me which candidates would drop out and which would run in a primary. A seven candidate primary would be an interesting thing.

____________UPDATE_________
I looked at each race, SD 48, MN 6, and governor, as in an ideal world who would I trust to do the better job. Not that others were untrustworthy, not at all, but John Marty has consistently worked for campaign finance reform, consistently refused contributions from lobbyists and special interests, and consistently been progressive especially on the key healthcare for everyone issue.

Maureen Reed seems to be outside the political loop, and Clark has been in DFL legislative leadership. To me, Reed might show more independence of judgment while Clark might be more inclined to seek out and position herself with leadership objectives were either to go to DC. I think Reed would be better for Minnesota if the impression is true, that she would be more questioning of leadership, as to how an objective might be best for the nation or her district.

Clark's having strong union support makes me confident she would be cognizant of to expectations of union workers, but the majority of workers in the nation now are non-union and I have not seen union objectives as always attuned to this other more numerous bloc.

Reed has ties to the medical community, and the argument can equally be made that she might favor providers over consumers regarding medical services issues. I do not see any of that in Reed's character, as best as I can assess it, that being an inexact thing.

Laurie Olman, my first choice for SD 48 did not have strong support and it became a two-candidate choice from the first ballot onward.

I am quite happy to see Olmon now running against Hackbarth, and all the qualities she has are ones I think Hackbarth lacks. It would be joyful if she unseats him.

Two things surprised me about Rybak.

First, he has as many or more signs to put up than Jim Abeler who has a couple of warehouses full of signs, or seems to.

Second, Rybak supporters and Clark supporters formed a strong bloc of dual allegiance at the SD 48 convention. I held up my "John Marty - Maureen Reed" sign expecting it hard to get a single delegate by linking two names in separate races, and it proved true. Yet surprisingly the Clark-Rybak, (or was it Rybak-Clark), bloc had a quite strong count, gaining two delegates. Whether that was coincidence or by prior agreement and design is unknown to me, and I could only guess.

I and six or seven people, an insufficient number for a committed Marty-Reed delegate count, moved to a Reed = Electability group where one individual seeking to be a delegate liked Marty, but his commitment was to Reed alone.

After voting in the subcaucus, he will be a delegate, and once the convention starts he votes his conscience, we trust that, and he goes there liking John Marty but not committed to do any particular thing, ballot to ballot, but for expressly backing Reed in early balloting. The other delegate is uncommitted for governor but identically committed on Reed. From her civic working and education background the second delegate surely knows of Marty and his consistent record, yet remains uncommitted for governor. Both alternates were decisively uncommitted.

Interestingly, for the subcaucus one delegate-alternate pairing were spouses; the other father-daughter with the daughter being the uncommitted delegate and her father uncommitted alternate. I guess it will be less strain on Duluth hotel bookings that way.

The SD 48 convention was one of the later ones, and because no other districts were convening the same day all the candidates for governor could be there without schedule conflicts.

The DFL Congressional District 6 Convention will be March 27, in Blaine, with the State DFL convention April 23, in Duluth.

I can recall only a few delegates not committed in either race, things like "Labor and Jobs" or such as a banner for grouping, so the District 6 outcome - whether the sixty percent threshold exists entering it or if not how things work out can be handicapped in terms of likelihoods, but there is no sure bet.

Per the latest public statements I am aware of, Reed will run in a primary if not endorsed, and Clark will abide by endorsement. How that translates to actual nose counting in Blaine, and how strongly Clark might consider a change of heart if not endorsed, remain to be seen.

If the District convention hangs short of either Reed or Clark gaining sixty percent, expect a primary.