Wednesday, December 23, 2009

MINNESOTA SIXTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT - Aggregate fundraising, yet another site. Yet more Crabgrassing analysis.

This cycle, Maureen Reed, 2009-10; here.

Tarryl Clark, 2009-10; here.

For comparison, Tinklenberg, 2006, here; showing about equal PAC and individual money. That is 4-year-old data, but is a good measure because that cycle his fundraising ran only to endorsement. For a full campaign to the general election; Tinklenberg, 2008; here. Both Reed and Clark have much further fundraising to do to prove candidate viability by that measure. I could not find on this site via cursory search, any Tinklenberg 2008 data indicating how much individual last minute money surged in via Bachmann's neo-McCarthyism mouth, on Hardball. That would be interesting to see, but the best guess is that the DFL cannot count on any comparable gaffe prior to the 2010 general election; although Bachmann after all, is Bachmann, so you never know.

Reed and Clark each, so far and this early in the cycle, have each raised about as much as Tinkleberg had in 2006, pre-endorsement, with Reed almost already equaling the total. Each is - so far - more heavily reliant on individuals, percentage wise, than Tinklenberg was at about the same point, in 2006.

After endorsement, and absent an irreconcilable tie, the expectation would be the endorsed candidate would attract union PAC money. It appears each shall face spending on a primary contest, absent in Tinklenberg's 2008 case.

For further comparison, Bachmann, 2010; here; showing a freightening percentage of individual donors, i.e., people who approve of the quality of her representing FOX, its talking heads, Wall Street, the health-industrial complex, and few if any in the district beyond haters of ACORN, the embryo fanatics, and those disputing Obama's place of birth. Advantage of incumbency? Special interest folks? Big-time Dobsonians? Ill-equipped stupid people? Patriots?

Form your own theory.

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Note - Those having color printers can print out the image, paste it onto cardboard, and using one of those silver or gold marking pens, label it "Michele" and hang it appropriately, for the holidays - my suggestion being on a tree, not with Mistletoe, not in any way as if it represented a lovable little fuzz ball, unless that's your belief system.

Some think that. Few, I expect.
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For a final general election number and breakdown, Bachmann, 2008; here.

An interesting comparison, 2008, Bachmann total money was $3,494,045 and Tinklenberg's was $2,968,319; a difference of $525,726. Bachmann PAC money of $975,875 more than doubled Tinklenberg's $416,613; individuals giving more to Tinklenberg than to Bachmann [the Bachmann-channeling-McCarty impact, probably]. Vote data, here, shows Bachmann's 187,817 votes exceded Tinklenberg's 175,786 by 12,031 (so that if 12,032 idiots had stayed home Bachmann would have been defeated, but not without her recount).

Interestingly, Bachmann's 2008 money raising was 118% of, or 18% more than Tinklenberg's. Her vote total was 107% of, or 7% more than Tinklenberg's. Proving that money alone cannot proportinately buy more votes. Yet she took in $525,726 more cash and got 12,031 more votes, or $43.70 more money per additional vote; and you could not buy votes that cheaply.

BOTTOM LINE: Reed and Clark each is head and shoulders better than Bachmann [having little to do with Bachmann being a short person and more to do with her astounding mediocrity and divisiveness]; though some disagree; but with that as a given, it means readers themselves and by telling friends should do all possible to assure each [for now pre-primary] could not blame a Bachmann reelection on Michele having more money in the fight.

For those slow on message uptake; give Reed money, give Clark money, unless or until you decide to favor only one as the viable Bachmann opponent.


Maureen Reed's campaign site tells you how to fund the Reed campaign as much as you dare.

Tarryl Clark's campaign site tells you how to fund the Clark campaign, as also expected.


Please pay to quell the chance that Bachmann wins again by having more money to fight a campaign than her DFL opponent. Quell that opportunity. And yes, saying that is acknowledging yet again that our nation for better or worse, worse I believe, is enslaved to the two-party system.

I surely don't like that but it is what reality provides us.
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Also of note but not greatly relevant for the immediate future, Tinklenberg, this cycle, 2009, here; with a small and highly concentrated donor pool, indicating a likely reason that Tinklenberg folded early, (along with his declared belief in DFL solidarity being important to unseat Bachmann).